Phillies: Trade reasoning below the surface
During the offseason, some Phillies fans and writers like to speculate about the moves in the works by general manager Matt Klentak, but their inch-deep evaluation colors their analysis.
Other realities:
The Philadelphia Phillies faithful exhibit the same characteristics of most baseball fans. Basically, they influence their own conclusions by their first impression of an acquisition or a decision the front office made for a particular star: Disagreeing more by perception than actuality.
IN OTHER WORDS “Never assume people’s motives. It’s the easiest way to find yourself upset over nothing or misjudging people” – LeCrae
When many locals equate dollars with statistics, the result is disappointment because an organization has multiple reasons to add a player. For instance, some fans probably preferred 30 homers for $20 million in 2018, so Carlos Santana based on only one factor didn’t measure up. No second thoughts?
On the other hand, some New York Yankees supporters believe management should have replacements for every position. But doing it with only 15 other roster spots besides the active 25 is, for the most part, impossible. Fortunately, the Phils faithful don’t also hold the execs accountable for injuries.
In the major leagues, a GM’s success rate is much different and less critical than their fans’ take. Basically, they understand their contemporary’s approach to the toughest job in baseball because they face those same pitfalls.
In Philly, locals complain about a poor signing or a bad trade: real or perceived. And sometimes it begins on the day of the deal because expectations exceed even the newest reality. Translation: Did you know he only –only– averaged 24 home runs per season? Yeah, another mistake!
Looking at the Phillies roster a year ago, any GM would have noticed a right-heavy lineup powerwise. And because they understand rivals would plan on using right-handed relievers to retire Rhys Hoskins and Maikel Franco with the game on the line, those executives would add a left-side bat with pop.
Knowing this also, Klentak had searched the free-agent market, had found no trading partners, and realized Santana was the best of his limited options. He overpaid in dollars but structured a three-summer contract. In the industry, it made sense, but some fans saw it as a reason to fire the GM due to Santana’s flaws.
Factors to consider:
Before Klentak assembles the 2019 Phillies, some faithful supporters have already decided the goal is to contend for the NL East pennant. But last August proved being in it until the final week of the 162 won’t be good enough if expectations change. Yes, those fans would have no shortage of culprits to blame.
As for free agents, inking Manny Machado will disappoint locals who want a superstar who can do everything on the field and is also a clubhouse prince. Translation: If you feel that way, the player you want is either unavailable or doesn’t exist. And Klentak has recently stated he doesn’t agree with you.
Regarding variables, the decision-maker has competition for the pricey talent expecting a long-term commitment. To illustrate, super agent Scott Boras wants roughly $350 million for 10 campaigns as an opening bid for Bryce Harper, who won’t be facing different hurlers for the first time like Santana in ’18.
When most paying customers view the red pinstripes, they limit their thinking to one season. So, they are evaluating moves based on the club contending for the division in ’19. In other words, these armchair GMs eye a three-year pact as if only the first 162 exists. Therefore, a narrow judgment.
As for management, they signed Santana for three summers because they have no guarantee of inking Harper. However, if they do reach an agreement with the outfielder, Santana will be expendable. But, otherwise, they have a left-handed hitter with power for 2019 and 2020 because of Klentak’s planning.
Constructing a roster is fitting the pieces together in some fashion. Ergo, the left field experiment with Hoskins is over, and he switches to first base, while Santana is still the left-side threat who will man the hot corner if he has no lineup replacement. And Franco, unfortunately, will become the odd man out.
Landing spots:
Regarding comments from rival execs, Klentak has been heavily shopping Santana, but the higher-up might have multiple reasons. That stated, he has three teams with potential interest, but the timing could be a bigger concern. Moving the slugger is only a partial answer because the GM will still need a left-side bat.
While some American League franchises could also consider Santana for a designated-hitter role, those organizations could also pursue Nelson Cruz, who will turn 39 on July 1. On the other hand, Santana will be 33.
With Joe Mauer‘s retirement, Santana is a fit for the Minnesota Twins: a club competing with the Cleveland Indians for the AL Central pennant. Additionally, Logan Morrison has left for free agency. As for a swap, Minnesota not only needs a power threat but also a first sacker.
To improve their National League defense from 15th place, the St. Louis Cardinals may consider dealing first baseman Jose Martinez and acquiring Santana. A trade would allow the Cards to switch Matt Carpenter to third base. However, St. Louis will also explore other options.
As a salary dump like the Cardinals, the Tampa Bay Rays are a possibility because they could still be a trade partner if the Phillies sign Harper in early February. The Rays need a power threat in their batting order other than C.J. Cron, and Santana at $17.5 million each for two campaigns is a consideration.
While Santana would be an improvement at first base for the Houston Astros over Yuli Gurriel and the Colorado Rockies with Ian Desmond, the Rox have financial limitations, and the ‘Stros need a DH with Evan Gattis becoming a free agent. Yes, both are possible, not probable.
Deceiving appearances:
At the hot corner, the Phillies prefer the younger Franco, 26, for his improved offense and his defensive ability. His 2018 production came after management’s patience and Franco’s max effort. However, three corner infielders for two positions is problematic, and he’s the third wheel.
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Klentak is talking to many teams about Santana, but he might have to pick up Harper to move the first sacker. In other words, Harper or someone else would replace Santana as the left-handed hitter with pop. But Boras will probably want a bidding war for his crown jewel. Translation: a long 12 weeks ahead.
Regarding the front office, president Andy MacPhail expressed the same low spending plans as last year: an old-fashioned ploy. Klentak, though, provided a toned-down version of the open-checkbook remarks from co-owner John S. Middleton. So, what is the message from the execs? Loud and clear!
To reiterate scoffing fans’ remarks, $20 million per 162 was too much for Santana’s 24-bomb average. Could the decision-makers sign a 30-homer bat for that? Well, 1.5 home runs per $1 million applied to a four-season average of 35.5 home runs equals $23.67 million. And who is the slugger? Machado!
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