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Yankees James Paxton: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly

By Manny Gómez |
NEW YORK, NY - JUNE 21: James Paxton #65 of the Seattle Mariners in action against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on June 21, 2018 in the Bronx borough of New York City. The Yankees defeated the Mariners 4-3. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NY - JUNE 21: James Paxton #65 of the Seattle Mariners in action against the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium on June 21, 2018 in the Bronx borough of New York City. The Yankees defeated the Mariners 4-3. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
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SEATTLE, WA – JULY 30: James Paxton #65 of the Seattle Mariners delivers a pitch against the Houston Astros in the second inning at Safeco Field on July 30, 2018 in Seattle, Washington. The Seattle Mariners beat the Houston Astros 2-0. (Photo by Lindsey Wasson/Getty Images)
SEATTLE, WA – JULY 30: James Paxton #65 of the Seattle Mariners delivers a pitch against the Houston Astros in the second inning at Safeco Field on July 30, 2018 in Seattle, Washington. The Seattle Mariners beat the Houston Astros 2-0. (Photo by Lindsey Wasson/Getty Images) /

On Monday the Hot Stove went into full swing with the New York Yankees landing James Paxton from the Seattle Mariners for prospects.

With teams like the Cleveland Indians announcing that top flight players are available to be traded, the Mariners dealing James Paxton to the Yankees for three prospects looks to be the first of many trades to come this offseason. The Yankees themselves have said that they’re not done, according to Jon Morosi:


New York City has mixed feelings about the trade. Previous trades for players like Sonny Gray (NYY: 4.51 ERA / 4.40 FIP), Kevin Brown (NYY: 4.95 ERA 3.88 FIP), Jeff Weaver (NYY: 5.35 ERA / 4.24 FIP), and more have come back to burn the Yankees in the past. So, the excitement level, while it is there, is being met with a slight touch of skepticism.

In the interest of putting some Yankees fans at ease, let’s take a closer look at J “The Big Maple.”

The Good:

James Paxton is a strike out machine. In fact, among pitchers with a minimum of 150 IP, Paxton (11.68 K/9) ranks third in the AL in K/9% behind Gerrit Cole (12.40 K/9) and Justin Verlander (12.20 K/9).

It gets better.

According to Katie Sharp:


But wiat, there’s more!


Paxton was so good at missing bats, that in 160.1 IP, “The Big Maple” still managed to strikeout 200+ batters in 2018. Paxton will fit right in to a pitching staff already stacked with strikeout pitchers. In 2018, the Yankees ranked 2nd in MLB in K’s (1634), K/9 (10.1).

With Paxton in the mix, the Yankees look to take the bats out of the hands of more hitters in 2019.

It’s not all roses and unicorns, however. Let’s take a look at the bad.

SEATTLE, WA – AUGUST 04: James Paxton #65 of the Seattle Mariners sits in the dugout after giving up two runs in the third inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Safeco Field on August 4, 2018 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Lindsey Wasson/Getty Images)
SEATTLE, WA – AUGUST 04: James Paxton #65 of the Seattle Mariners sits in the dugout after giving up two runs in the third inning against the Toronto Blue Jays at Safeco Field on August 4, 2018 in Seattle, Washington. (Photo by Lindsey Wasson/Getty Images) /

The Bad:

James Paxton just turned 30 on November 6. Sure, we’ve seen players become better with age – think Max Scherzer (Post 30: 2.79 ERA, 2.89 FIP, 0.926 WHIP) – BUT Paxton has been rattled with injuries. Last season, Paxton pitched a career high 160.1 IP.

In his six year career, Paxton has been placed on the disabled list a total of eight times, mostly with issues with his throwing arm and his back. It goes against my better judgement to assume that he will get healthier with age.

By the same token, anything is possible.

In reality, despite the fact that 160.1 IP isn’t exactly what one would call a stamina king, Paxton has increased the number of IP he pitches each season since 2015. He has also increased his number of starts each year since he broke into the league. Last season he started a career-high 28 games.

So, there’s hope that Paxton can be a 30+ GS and 200+ IP pitcher. For now, let’s proceed with caution and take what we can get from “The Big Maple.”

Let’s take a tour into the dark and twisted for a moment, in the interest of objectivity. Join me on a journey to “the ugly.”

The Ugly:

The most concerning aspect of James Paxton’s game is that when hitters make contact, it’s hard contact.


Not only that, given that Yankee stadium is a hitters paradise, Paxton’s knack for giving up HR should look to increase this coming season. As a matter of fact, Yankee Stadium ranks among the best HR hitting ballparks in baseball according to ESPN, whereas Safeco Field ranked dead smack in the middle.

More concerning, James Paxton’s home run to fly ball rate (HR/FB) is 16th worst in MLB among pitchers with 150 IP minimum. The good news, his ground ball to fly ball rate (GB/FB) is among the best in baseball

SEATTLE, WA – SEPTEMBER 29: Starter James Paxton #65 of the Seattle Mariners delivers a pitch during a game against the Texas Rangers at Safeco Field on September 29, 2018 in Seattle, Washington. The Mariners won the game 4-1. (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images)
SEATTLE, WA – SEPTEMBER 29: Starter James Paxton #65 of the Seattle Mariners delivers a pitch during a game against the Texas Rangers at Safeco Field on September 29, 2018 in Seattle, Washington. The Mariners won the game 4-1. (Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images) /

All in all…

In all, the Yankees didn’t give up too much to obtain James Paxton. The biggest piece the Yankees lost in the deal is Justus Sheffield, who was rated the Yankees top prospect by MLB Prospect Watch. Sheffield was traded to the Yankees in 2015 for Andrew Miller, who is currently a free agent. With Cashman stating in an interview on The Michael Kay Show that the Yankees are looking for RP, this trade could be negated simply by the Yankees signing Miller back.

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With the Yankees looking to move Sonny Gray, James Paxton becomes an automatic plus in the rotation. What’s more, Paxton is under club control for two more seasons, and the Yankees still have plenty of money to go out and re-sign J.A. Happ and/or acquire Patrick Corbin.

Also, given the fact that the Yankees still have Clint Frazier, Estevan Florial, and more top-tier prospects, a deal for another top of the line starting pitcher is not out of the question.

3 FAs the Yankees should avoid. dark. Next

With this deal, Brian Cashman continues to solidify his influence in the Bronx, and it keeps paying off. Not only should Yankees fans should be excited about James Paxton, but they should also be even more excited about what else is to come this offseason.

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