
In the end…
We’ve measured Beltre against Hall of Famers (and some non Hall of Famers) in 11 categories that could influence the judgment of voters. Obviously, not all categories carry equal weight; nor for that matter can it be assumed that voters will consider only these 11 categories.
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Still, it’s worth noting that Beltre’s average placing among the 20 greats in these 11 categories was a fraction higher than eighth. He ranked among the top five in career WAR, career home runs, peak home runs, plate appearances and MVP votes.
He did have four placings among the lower half of our group, those being in peak WAR, career OPS+, career batting average, All Star appearances.
More significantly, Beltre’s numbers compare reasonably with those of Chipper Jones, who was only recently inducted at the same position. Jones did win seven of the 11 categories, Beltre just three with one tie… but the margins were rarely substantial.
It’s also worth keeping in mind that Jones got 97 percent of the vote. Given the 75 percent standard for election, Beltre doesn’t have to be Jones’ equal; he just has to be a reasonable facsimile of Chipper. He is that.
The conclusion: Adrian Beltre is likely to win election, and he has a good chance to do so on the first ballot.