MLB hot stove: top trade target for each team

As the MLB hot stove gets piping hot, we look at the top trade target for every MLB team

The trade of James Paxton to the New York Yankees kicked off the MLB hot stove trading season. As we prepare for what is assumed to be a very active trading season this offseason, who is the top trade target for each team?

We will look at each team to discuss the top trade target. The players mentioned are not going to be guys who are known to be unavailable, i.e. the top trade target for the Angels is obviously Mike Trout, but there has been no indication that the team is listening to trade offers at this time, so he will not be the top target.

We will go alphabetically, beginning with a team out West:

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Arizona Diamondbacks have been rumored to be active on the MLB hot stove in moving trade pieces, possibly even heading toward a rebuild in the desert.

With that possibility, nearly everyone on the roster is open to consideration for this spot, and the easy top choice is first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. Much was made in the media of the impressive rebound that Matt Carpenter had in 2018 to spur an MVP campaign, but MVP voters got it right in placing Goldschmidt’s equally impressive rebound from a dreadful start to yet another elite season at #6 in voting (Carpenter finished 9th).

From 2013 through 2018, only three players have boasted combined slash lines in that time frame of .300/.400/.500 – Mike Trout, Joey Votto, and Goldschmidt. His production has been incredibly impressive when held to the light of Trout, as he has just 24 less home runs and 34 less stolen bases over that 6-year time span.

Goldschmidt is on the last year of his contract with the Diamondbacks, earning $14.5 million in 2019, a very reasonable sum for his production, so he should have a definite market out there. His biggest restriction will be that he is a first baseman and doesn’t exactly fit in a lot of team’s needs for that purpose.

Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves had a breakthrough season in 2018 in their rebuild cycle, so they are likely looking to add, not subtract, with their major league roster. However, the Braves rebuild was built around pitching, and due to the depth of pitching that they have accumulated, they will be asked about an arm in nearly any deal that they come to the plate on.

There could be arguments for a whole host of pitchers that would be the top target for other teams, but in listening to other teams’ scouts and noting the players mentioned when they discuss big deals with Atlanta, one name continues to come to the top that has been, at least publicly, left “available”.

The top arm on any team’s list is Mike Soroka, but the Braves have made it clear that he is not moving, but in 2018, the team saw a young lefty nearly make the All-Star team with a dominant first-half performance before fading in the middle of the season. While many fans will question the desirability of a pitcher who had a 3.90 ERA and was one of the league leaders in walk percentage among qualified starters, there is plenty to like about Newcomb.

At the end of June, Newcomb sat with a sweet 8-2 record, a 2.71 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and he had a 40/90 BB/K over 93 innings. He then had two horrible months on the mound where nothing seemed to break his way. However, as the Phillies and Nationals were still barking at the heels of the Braves in early September, Newcomb took the mound and calmly struck out 8 over 6 one-run innings without issuing a walk. Many scouts point to that performance when talking about Newcomb’s trade value.

As 2018 was his first full season, Newcomb won’t even be arbitration eligible until after the 2020 season, and he won’t be a free agent until after 2023. With a season of 30 starts already under his belt (he’s already pitched more innings in a season than James Paxton ever has in a single season in his career!), Newcomb could end up being a key piece in a deal that allows the Braves to land a top-flight starter or a controllable, young outfield bat.

Baltimore Orioles

While the Orioles would pretty much like to ship up the major league roster and start all over again, that’s not how baseball works, and Chris Davis will still be under contract until 2022.

From there, the attention turns to who could jump start a rebuild? What player would have the value to bring in pieces that could push forward the team’s timeline after moving their biggest star over the summer?

After stripping themselves of a majority of their desirable assets in 2018, the one big piece that has been put out into the market some this offseason has been starting pitcher Dylan Bundy. While moving Bundy would indicate to fans and the team that a long-term rebuild was in place, not a short-term one, it could also be the move that helps the team the most.

In spite of a horrid 2018 (5.45 ERA, 1.41 WHIP over 171 2/3 innings), Bundy retains significant trade interest, and the Orioles have reportedly listened, though the price is understandably high for the last remaining asset on the roster that should draw a significant return.

Bundy is coming off of two seasons in which he was building up innings stamina and had impressive underlying statistics. He has struggled significantly with home runs, but many attribute that to his pitching coach as much as anything, and there are plenty in the game on both sides of the issue with pitching coach Roger McDowell, so it certainly could be the case.

Whatever the reason, Bundy is still just 26 years old this coming season, and he’s not a free agent until after the 2021 season, so there would be three seasons of control to trade for, albeit arbitration seasons. If the Orioles played that move right, it could be a significant boost to a farm system that didn’t get quite the influx of talent that many hoped would come from moving Machado, Gausman, Schoop, Britton, and Brach last season.

Boston Red Sox

The Boston Red Sox are coming off a World Championship, the 9th in franchise history. The team has a majority of its 2018 team returning, and it would seem they’d be using financial assets to fill the holes the team currently has.

The Red Sox do have one asset that they could use in trade, and it’s something that many teams are sorely lacking – minor league power. Not only do they have power from the players they have in the minor leagues, but the top prospects in their system just happen to be corner infielders that add plenty of power and at least can play a reasonable third base.

The top trade asset for the Red Sox this offseason will likely be Michael Chavis. Having returned from a PED suspension, Chavis was looked at with wary eyes coming into the 2018 season, but he was able to produce once on the field at a very high level, finishing the year hitting .298/.381/.538 over 46 games with 9 home runs and 14 doubles.

Chavis may be best suited for first base over third base, but he has the arm to handle third, and with some work, he could possibly play at least league-average third base. No matter where the defense ends up, the power in Chavis’ bat is undeniable, even after returning from his PED issues.

The Red Sox are looking for a possible additional starter and bullpen help this offseason. They very well could use Chavis as their primary bait.

Chicago Cubs

I began work on this piece in early November, scouring team reports for any hints at players that could be available in trade. Then the news on Kris Bryant broke and made this an easy choice.

No player on the Chicago Cubs would garner as much interest on the trade market, nor as much return, as would Kris Bryant. Even coming off a rough season due to injury, Bryant still was able to hit .272/.374/.460 in by far his worst professional performance of his careeer.

Bryant is not by any means a perfect player, and teams would certainly be considering some of the fallbacks he has as they enter into trade talks. His body is such that he will likely not age gracefully at third base, likely requiring a move to either a corner outfield spot or first base. He’s also had significant strikeout concerns. Those were heavily alleviated in 2017, when he struck out in just 19.2% of his plate appearances, but in 2018, that rate was back up to 23%, and while that’s still not the 30% he showed as a rookie, it’s something of concern for teams.

However, those are very, very minor knocks for a player who has a Rookie of the Year award, Most Valuable Player award, and a World Championship under his belt, and he’s just 27 entering 2019.

So why would Bryant become available?

The simple answer is money. The posturing the Cubs did with Bryant when he was a rookie to delay his arbitration clock did not sit well with him, and he has stated that he is not interested in negotiating an extension with the Cubs at this time. With his first arbitration year already likely to exceed 8 figures, the Cubs are strongly considering moving Bryant for a significant package of players that could help the team remain competitive going forward.

The line will be long for his services, but few will have the player resources required to make a move for Bryant while also filling needs that the Cubs currently have. Teams like the Braves, Astros, and Dodgers seem to be the teams that would have the most available resources that match what the Cubs need in a deal to move their young star.

Chicago White Sox

After multiple years of rebuilding, the Chicago White Sox are beginning to see the fruits of that labor hit the major league club. In 2019, more top prospects should establish themselves on the South Side as well, and the young influx of talent has the White Sox dreaming of making a big splash in free agency, perhaps even pursuing one of the two “big dogs” on the market.

In order to clear roster space and possibly some financial space, the White Sox could be looking to move their top offensive performer from 2017.

Though he was injured and struggled to produce when healthy in 2018, Avisail Garcia is just one year removed from a season where he hit .330/.380/.506 with 27 doubles and 18 home runs for the White Sox. Still arbitration-eligible and just 27 when the season starts, Garcia would seemingly be a highly-desirable trade chip.

Instead, the market for Garcia seems to be up and down, depending on which player is added to the trade market around him. One issue that Garcia will be contesting is his seeming out of nowhere 2017 season that looks like an aberration when you view the rest of his career.

With low walk rates for his career and poor outfield defense, Garcia’s trade profile isn’t one that has teams beating down the door, but with an estimated arbitration number of just $8 million, he could be a gamble for a team looking for an outfielder, and his absence would open up a spot for the future in Chicago.

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds top trade target remains one of the easiest to do for about the third straight season. Raisel Iglesias has tantalized teams ever since making the move to the bullpen as a future closer. His ability to handle multiple innings on the mound and his incredible raw stuff has made him one of the most dominant closers in the game, in spite of Cincinnati’s less-than-fortunate record the last few seasons.

Even with the Reds publicly stating that they intend to make moves to compete in 2019 and even giving him an extension, Iglesias is still heavily rumored, and many see that as a hypocritical move, but it really may not be. In fact, the Reds may be ahead of the game and smart in moving Iglesias this offseason, even after his new contract.

Iglesias had a significant usage movement from his fastball and slider to his changeup this last season. He had thrown his fastball 55% of the time before 2018 and saw that dip down to around 50% while his slider usage dropped from 30-33% to 26%. Meanwhile, the change increased from 11-13% to 23%.

That large increase in changeup usage didn’t show up in Iglesias’ ERA or strikeouts, but some of the underlying numbers recognized it. His hard-hit rate spiked to 34.8%, 10% more than he’d ever recorded previously, and his groundball rate was the lowest of his career. That also led to the biggest HR/FB rate of his career.

There’s no doubt that Iglesias is still a dominant pitcher, but the Reds could be wise to move him if they get a significant offer for him. The Reds would have plenty of suitors, and they very well may pull the trigger.

Cleveland Indians

With the Cleveland Indians announcing that they’re looking to trim payroll and would even consider moving ace Corey Kluber to do it, the decision who to feature here was quite simple.

Kluber is behind only Max Scherzer in bWAR over the last five seasons. He has won 2 Cy Young awards in that time, been an All-Star 3 times, and won the ERA title in 2017, when he came up short of winning the major league pitching Triple Crown, leading the majors in wins and ERA, but finishing 3rd in strikeouts.

Kluber is a true ace in the game, a pitcher that any team would want and should make a significant pitch for, but there is one hitch – the Indians don’t want a “rebuild” package in return. They want to compete in 2019, and given the division they play in is the worst in the game presently, they absolutely should continue pushing while the iron is hot and their two superstar infielders are in their primes.

That would mean any team coming to the table would need to be able to offer a young, controllable starting pitcher that could impact the Cleveland rotation as soon as next year. Few teams can offer that in a deal, but with the need that the team also has in the bullpen and the outfield, they could match up well with teams like the Brewers, Braves, Cardinals, Astros, Dodgers, Nationals, Phillies, Rockies, Twins, and Yankees in a deal, so there will be plenty of options for them to move one of the elite arms in the game.

Colorado Rockies

The Colorado Rockies seemingly backed themselves into two corners – one a bad spot due to multiple big contracts given to relievers that now leave them without a lot of flexibility in their pitching staff for a bevy of young arms on the way up the system. The other is at first base, where the signing of Ian Desmond not only cost the team a draft pick, but it just caused the team to designate a promising hitter and block another player.

While Trevor Story has been discussed this offseason, and with the team’s depth up the middle in the organization, he could be a legitimate trade piece, it is sounding more and more like the Rockies will go into the season with Story, and he could become a trade chip by midseason.

Star third baseman Nolan Arenado is receiving loads of interest, but he is the heart and soul of the Rockies, and they’re likely to watch him walk out the door after 2019 over trading him at any point, as much as that could hurt Rockies fans everywhere.

By the time he does leave, his replacement may have been traded, however. Ryan McMahon is already going to be 24 this season and spent the entire 2018 riding the major league bench. He’s got much too much bat to be doing that, and the Rockies could maximize on that this offseason in a deal, especially if they choose to pursue a top-of-the-rotation starter or a big-name catcher.

Detroit Tigers

The Tigers are in the midst of a rebuild, and that usually would mean that guys who are cost-controlled and relatively young would not be high priority to move, but with depth at particular positions, the Tigers could market a few players for big returns that would help their rebuild.

Deciding between the two likely biggest return players is difficult, but I’m going to choose outfielder Nick Castellanos. With slugging outfielder Christin Stewart likely to open 2019 in Detroit and limited in his defensive position, Castellanos and Stewart in the same outfield could be rough on Tigers pitchers.

It’s not that Castellanos has no value in the outfield. He does have a big arm, which allowed him to make 10 assists last year, and in the right outfield, he could be an asset, but his range is very limited, so with another defensively-limited outfielder in the same outfield, a lot of balls would be falling on Tigers pitching.

Teams have already been calling on Castellanos after his .298/.354/.500 season in 2018 with 23 home runs. That came on the heels of 26 home runs in 2017, establishing Castellanos as a young power hitter that teams are very interested in picking up.

Castellanos has one more season before free agency, so the return will likely not be huge, but if the Tigers are able to play into a bidding war, they could get a nice package for Castellanos that helps set them up for 2020-2021 and beyond.

Houston Astros

After winning 103 games in the year after they won the World Series, the Houston Astros would seem to be in a place where they’d not be trading off pieces, rather acquiring more pieces to continue their competitive window.

Injuries to their starting rotation and free agency losses in the outfield and behind the plate have left a few significant holes to fill. The Astros recently acquired Aledmys Diaz, and he will likely fill a utility role for the team that was vacated by Marwin Gonzalez in free agency.

Gonzalez was the primary left fielder in 2018, and while top prospect Kyle Tucker would seem to seamlessly slide into that role for 2019, the Astros could instead choose to utilize Tucker in a deal to acquire a starter who is locked up beyond 2019 (Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole both hit the FA market after the season) or a long-term catcher.

The Astros have impressive depth in arms that they could package with Tucker and their farm system still has plenty of movable assets, so while Tucker is certainly a piece that would seem to be part of the 2019 Astros roster, he could also be a key piece to improving that roster by being moved as well.

Kansas City Royals

In the midst of a rebuild, the Kansas City Royals have moved many players that have trade value to add depth to their farm system, and they’ve received a number of solid deals back already, but there are a pair of pieces that are still intriguing to outside clubs.

Between Danny Duffy and Whit Merrifield, however, the easy choice for this list is definitely Merrifield. Duffy has issues with injury and a rough 2018 to overcome on the trade market that could hamper his price. Merrifield is quite the opposite.

A late bloomer, Merrifield will be 30 before the 2019 season opens. As far as negatives, that’s really the only one for Merrifield.

Merrifield has led the American League in stolen bases the past two seasons, and over 2017/2018, he’s averaged a .296/.347/.449 line with 38 doubles, 16 home runs, and 40 steals, making him one of the most dynamic offensive players in baseball.

That sort of production alone will turn any head, but Merrifield also is well-regarded for his personable attitude on the field and his willingness to do whatever the team needs, having played all three outfield positions, first base, and third base over the last two seasons along with his primary position of second base.

While age may damper the return some, the Royals should be able to ask plenty for Merrifield as he’s not yet eligible for arbitration until after the 2019 season and won’t be a free agent until after the 2022 season, giving the team that acquires him four seasons of control.

Los Angeles Angels

While everyone would like to get their hands on Mike Trout, and there are always discussions about what he would cost in trade to pry him from the Angels, there have been no official overtures from the Angels that they’re even listening on Trout, let alone seriously considering moving their franchise icon.

The Angels organization in general is a tough one, as the team has long-term, fairly expensive contracts on the offensive side, and while there’s depth in their pitching, they lack the front-end guys, so they don’t want to hurt their depth by removing what they DO have.

In spite of that, the Angels will certainly be fielding plenty of inquiries on the guy who eventually took over at the back of their bullpen last season. Blake Parker ended the season with 14 saves to lead the team, but overall he had an excellent year.

The 33-year-old pitched in 67 games, tossing 66 1/3 innings, with a 3.26 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and a 19/70 BB/K ratio. That follows a season where Parker posted a 2.54 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in 67 1/3 innings for the Angels with a 16/86 BB/K ratio.

Parker’s journeyman status means that he’s never really established himself and is just in his 2nd year of arbitration, currently projected to receive $3.1 million, which is a very reasonable sum compared to what is likely to be handed out on the free agent market. Financially, he could be a very good deal for an acquiring team.

For the Angels, they’re already playing with house money on Parker, having picked up the pitcher on waivers before the 2017 season, so if they can turn that wise move into a few key future pieces, that’d be a great return, even if it meant taking a piece out of their current bullpen.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers made their second straight World Series on the strength of their impressive roster depth, and that depth gives them plenty of options in the trade market. However, the top choice with the organization was really an easy one.

When he first arrived on the scene, there were plenty of Yasiel Puig detractors. His brash style on the field, along with some unfortunate incidents off of it, turned off fans and seemed to turn multiple media members against him (some of whom still haven’t dropped that edge, but that’s a whole other story!).

Puig initially let his play on the field do the talking, and it spoke plenty loud for him, as he made the All-Star game in his second season and combined in his first two seasons in the league to hit .305/.386/.502 with 35 home runs and 22 steals over 252 games, sporting a cool 151 OPS+. The game simply isn’t supposed to come that easy.

It didn’t. Puig struggled through two injury-riddled seasons in 2015 and 2016 that were spotted with run-ins with his manager and front office persons with the Dodgers. However, something changed in the 2016-2017 offseason.

Puig entered the 2017 season as a man on a mission, playing his trademark elite defense and suddenly becoming the guy who was still exuberant on the field, but he was also celebrating his teammates and began to change his clubhouse narrative. His on-field performance was certainly improved as well, as he clubbed 51 home runs and stole 30 bases over the past two seasons.

The Dodgers currently have a plethora of outfield depth as it is, and top prospect Alex Verdugo is ready in the minor leagues for a major league look with a very similar profile to Puig. Add in Puig’s impending free agency after the 2019 season and the Dodgers’ desire to trim some cash, and it’s no surprise that Puig has been a frequent name mentioned around the MLB hot stove thus far.

Miami Marlins

When the Miami Marlins began their tear down last offseason, one of the big pieces that needed to move was Giancarlo Stanton‘s contract. The outfielder was coming off of an MVP season, so his value on the field had never been higher, but his contract was such that one executive stated that even with multiple MVPs under his belt, the numbers wouldn’t make sense for over half of the league.

Enter the Yankees, who have never shied away from a contract. The issue – the Yankees did not want to have to fight the luxury tax in 2018, so to get Stanton, the Marlins were going to have to take back a player who was making “some money” rather than just getting a prospect package.

The Marlins did well for themselves in the deal to make Starlin Castro the return of choice. While possibly not the most glamorous of players, Castro has been a consistent hitter throughout his career, posting a career .281 batting average and making 4 All-Star games.

Castro has one more season left on his contract guaranteed along with a 2020 option. Incredibly, he will begin the 2019 season turning 29 and entering his 10th season as a big leaguer.

The free agent second base market will already be interesting enough, but while those players are trying to vie for the few true spots out there, the Marlins could capitalize by moving Castro to a team like the Twins, Angels, A’s, Dodgers, or Red Sox for a package of players.

And you thought I was going to talk about a catcher…

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers surprised most last offseason when they went big into the trade market and the free agent market to land Christian Yelich and Lorenzo Cain. While the moves paid off as Yelich won the MVP and Cain finished top 10 in MVP voting and the team made it one game away from the World Series, it did leave the Brewers with an intriguing depth issue.

The team dealt from that depth at the deadline to some degree, using elite defensive outfielder Brett Phillips as part of the trade package to bring in Mike Moustakas, but they still have Domingo Santana that really profiles as not just a starting outfielder in the major leagues, but a very good starter.

Santana would have no issue finding suitors the moment he was put onto the market as well, and in the trade market where a lot of the available outfielders will have little major league experience or major league success, the Brewers can point back to 2017, when Santana hit 30 home runs and stole 15 bases as a full-time regular while also posting 6 defensive runs saved in roughly 1/3 of regular time this season. He’s also entering his first year of arbitration, so he still has three seasons of team control remaining.

With the Brewers desire to add in a top starter or elite arms at the very least, Santana would seem to be a prime piece of trade bait to waive in front of outfield-needy teams like San Francisco, Atlanta, Cleveland, or the Mets in their pursuit of an arm.

Minnesota Twins

After what looked like a breakthrough 2017 season, the Minnesota Twins saw injuries and significant slumps to open the 2018 season sink the team before the ship even left port, really. However, as they did in 2017, after the All-Star break, the Twins rallied, finishing 3 games above .500 over the final three months of the season after being 9 games below .500 in the first half.

With the Indians seeing some significant losses in free agency, health and return to performance for key cogs in Minnesota could put the Twins into a competitive spot for 2019, but they do have some definite team needs, and right now their farm system, one of the most rapidly-improving systems in the entire game, has players on the cusp of the majors, ready to break in.

The Twins currently have an abundance of outfielders at the major league level or on the cusp of the majors. They could use that to their advantage in an offseason when many teams could be looking to eschew the free agent prices for an outfielder in their team building.

The two corner outfielders, Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler, would seem to be the two most likely trade targets. After a big season in 2018, Rosario would be the most likely to bring back a big trade package. He’s coming off a .288/.323/.479 season at the plate, though his defense in the outfield is inconsistent, to say the least.

With both Kepler and Rosario entering their first year of arbitration, both left-handed, and separated in age by 17 months, the team they are trading with could set the preference and allow the Twins to find their second baseman or someone to give consistent innings behind emerging ace Jose Berrios in the rotation.

New York Mets

Growing up a fan of a rival of the Mets, the team was often referred to jokingly as “The Mess” by opposing fans, and they’ve done all they can as a franchise lately to live up to that name.

The team had an opportunity at the end of a lost season to get an extended look at first base prospect Dominic Smith, and while he did appear in 56 games, he only made 32 defensive starts on the season, and 10 of those were in the outfield.

The lack of playing time is confusing as Smith posted a .196 ISO at the plate, displaying badly needed power for the lineup. Certainly, his walk rate was less than desirable, but his minor league track record would have indicated he wouldn’t be a big walker, and he typically struggled with strikeouts right away at a level, reducing his rate with more experience at a level, so that rate would have gone down as well.

Now the Mets have arguably their most-ready prospect at first base in Peter Alonso, who acquitted himself very well with the glove at first base in the Arizona Fall League and simply continued mashing baseballs as he has all along his minor league path.

While the Mets tried Smith in the outfield, and he’s a very good defensive first baseman based on his footwork, he simply does not have the speed to even be an average defensive outfielder. He won’t be a headliner of a major deal, but Dominic Smith should be given the chance to find his bearings with a team that could use him.

New York Yankees

As the Yankees have shed salary, they have added more and more depth, finding that the major contract to a few doesn’t build quite the same level of team as developing elite players and balancing that salary structure around “fill-in” vets and elite stars that you’ve developed in your own system while also knowing when it’s time to use that farm system to plug in for a veteran rather than hold on for one more year.

While that depth is a blessing, it can also lead to players stagnating, and at his current position in the organization, that’s the possible path for Clint Frazier. The outfielder acquired when the Yankees traded Andrew Miller to Cleveland has been among baseball’s top prospects, but now that he’s reached the major leagues, he finds himself 5th or 6th on the outfield depth chart.

With the outfield set already for 2019 and more outfield reinforcements coming in the next few seasons as well, moving Frazier in a deal to shore up team needs would make a lot of sense for the team. Many Yankee bloggers have even suggested that with some of the depth of “elite” prospects stripped from the system recently, Frazier could be moved for a prospect or two to enhance the top end of the Yankees farm system, which is always deep, but does currently lack top-100 talent at its usual pace (after their most recent trade, there are three Yankees on my consideration board for the top 150, for example).

While Frazier’s .238/.295/.429 major league line isn’t going to have teams running to get first in line for his services, he’s shown himself to be a very good defender and possesses excellent hitting skills, as he displayed in AAA in 2018, where he hit .311/.389/.574 with 10 home runs over 48 games. Many teams would certainly like to give him an opportunity in their outfield, and the Yankees could find rotation depth, bullpen depth, or top prospects in return.

Philadelphia Phillies

For four and a half months of the season, the Phillies were enjoying a resurgence, competing for a division title. By the time the season ended, their late-season swoon had taken them from competing for the division title to third in the division and nearly in the top half of the draft order.

The team is looking to correct some of the issues that plagued the 2018 team – most notably, a porous defense. While the big news around Philadelphia is the pursuit of big name free agents, the team recently made a significant step in trying to trade away one of their bad mistakes of the 2017-2018 offseason, signing Carlos Santana.

It isn’t that Santana is a bad player at all. In fact, he’s known for being a premium defensive first baseman who will draw a ton of walks and hit 20-30 home runs, which is just what he did for the Phillies in 2018, so it’s hard to say that the team didn’t get exactly what they were paying for with signing Santana before the season.

The issue is that the team’s best young hitter, Rhys Hoskins, also happens to be limited to first base, and he brings incredible power to the lineup that is sorely needed, so any move that leaves him on the bench is a poor one, something the team really didn’t think far enough through before signing Santana last offseason.

Santana’s contract is not pretty, with roughly $41.5 million left on the deal, so the Phillies may have to kick in some cash, but for a team like the Twins or Yankees looking for stability and a quality glove at first base, Santana’s ability to switch hit and get on base with some power could be a very attractive trade piece.

Pittsburgh Pirates

In a deep division of good teams, the Pirates went for it at the deadline, trading away three very good chips to acquire a pitcher that this writer had warned all teams to avoid, Chris Archer. In spite of Archer’s mediocre-at-best performance as a Pirate, he wasn’t the reason the Pirates fell short of the postseason.

Getting the production expected out of their vaunted pitching staff really hurt the Pirates overall, and they could end up using their depth at one of the most in-demand positions this offseason to garner them pitching help for the major league club.

Entering the final year of his contract with the Pirates, Francisco Cervelli has been everything the team could have asked for and more when they signed him before the 2017 season to a 3-year, $31 million deal to bring him back after two seasons with the club.

Over the first two seasons of that contract, Cervelli hasn’t exactly set the world on fire offensively, but he’s been a consistent veteran presence behind the plate, and his bat certainly hasn’t hurt, with a .255/.363/.404 line over the two seasons.

In an offseason where a number of top contenders are in search of catchers, Cervelli could serve as an excellent trade option on the market, especially if positioned well around top trade target J.T. Realmuto.

San Diego Padres

With a team that is ready to break through all over the diamond in the minor league system, the Padres could truly move any piece from their major league team and it’d make perfect sense.

The issue is needing a trade partner involved. The Padres would certainly be willing to market Wil Myers, Austin Hedges, and even Clayton Richard, and while there would be some interest in each to some degree, there is one player that teams will be calling on to make notable offers, and it would behoove the Padres to listen.

Kirby Yates is in his second season of arbitration, projected at $3 million and he’s under team control for 2020 as well before hitting free agency. For a guy who just put up a 2.14 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and a 17/90 BB/K ratio over 63 relief innings, that seems like a very hot property indeed.

So why should the Padres be as interested in moving Yates as teams are in acquiring him?

Yates before 2018 had 160 major league games and 154 1/3 innings of major league experience. His numbers entering 2018 for his career were a 4.78 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and a 60/201 BB/K over those 154 1/3 innings. He also had 2 total saves in his career before 2018.

Once the Padres traded Brad Hand, Yates took over the closer job, and now the Padres are able to market Yates as a closer in the trade market, but it’s completely feasible that the Hawaii native that will be 32 on opening day will revert back to the pitcher he was entering 2018. It’s at least just as likely that Yates will put up a 4.10 ERA/1.30 WHIP as a 2.20 ERA, 1.00 WHIP in 2019, yet teams will certainly be paying for the latter.

The Padres have the pitching depth to plug someone into the closer role as they are still building in their rebuild, and this will likely be the peak of return they can get for Yates.

San Francisco Giants

It is entirely feasible that the San Francisco Giants have the top player available on the entire trade market this offseason, at least once they make him available, and as much as it will pain fans, they absolutely should make him available.

Madison Bumgarner has been the ace in San Francisco for a decade now. His tenacious attitude on the mound led the team to three World Series championships in a 5-year span, winning the World Series MVP in 2014. Very possibly, Bumgarner may be this generation’s John Smoltz or Dave Stewart, guys you wanted to have the ball in a Game 7.

Injuries have limited Bumgarner to 240 total innings between 2017 and 2018 after tossing 200+ six seasons in a row. While many are foretelling the demise of Bumgarner and the end of his reign as a dominant starter, perhaps a step back is due.

Bumgarner is just 29 years old. He will be hitting free agency after the 2019 season at age 30 with 3 World Series rings and a reputation as one of the true aces in the game when he’s healthy.

Many will point to Bumgarner seeing the highest hard-hit rate of his career, but he also posted a fly ball rate lower than he’s ever posted in a season since 2012 and a ground ball rate higher than any he’s posted since 2014. So, while hitters were hitting the ball hard, they were hitting a lot of ground balls and line drives, not really pounding the ball.

Bumgarner certainly could offer a frontline starter for a season to someone this offseason, and there would be a definite market for his services, likely headlined by the Brewers, Braves, and Cubs, but certainly to include many others, and with the current state of the Giants farm system and lack of depth on the major league roster, the Giants could get back a fairly significant haul in a bidding war for MadBum’s services.

Seattle Mariners

While the first trade chip fell in a likely rebuild in Seattle, the big one is still in town, and it could take a monster trade package to dislodge him.

The Mariners made a brilliant move before the 2017 season when they picked up Mitch Haniger and Jean Segura from the Diamondbacks. They recently signed Segura to an extension that could make him very valuable in the market, but this is about the other piece they got from Arizona, Mitch Haniger.

In his first full season as a starter in 2018, Haniger showed the flirtings he’d given in his previous stints were no joke, as he hit .285/.366/.493 with 38 doubles and 26 home runs, earning an All-Star nod. A late bloomer, Haniger isn’t even eligible for arbitration until after the 2019 season due to starting his career at age 25.

Now 28 headed into the 2019 season, Haniger brings a blend of power and speed along with an excellent glove to the outfield for any team he’s on, and with his contract situation, he would be a highly desired player.

Of course, the Mariners could definitely want to build their rebuild around a player like Haniger, but if the goal is to compete in 2021, that would put them in Haniger’s second season of arbitration and his age-30 season before they intend to compete again, and whether they want to key their rebuild around a guy who will be 30 before the team is even competitive is questionable – not that much of what Jerry Dipoto ever really makes a ton of logical sense!

If the Mariners were to put Haniger on the market, they could ask for and receive an incredible trade package for his services, likely receiving as many as three top-100 players and possibly even more if the bidding got heavy enough.

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals have been led by an elite catcher for a decade now, and as he has already given the team an idea of his ending date, they can begin to line up potential replacements for him.

The issue is that the team could have too many guys who are ready right now. However, this could be the perfect offseason for that “problem”.

As many teams are in the catching market for a starter or at least a platoon partner for their current catcher, the depth of young catchers that the Cardinals possess could be a huge boon to their ability to fill roster needs.

While many will see this as a chance for Carson Kelly to get his chance, the guy I’m going to focus on is Andrew Knizner, one of the top Cardinals prospects, and a guy who is getting plenty of love around the league right now.

Knizner opened a lot of eyes in Surprise last fall as he hit .358/.403/.537 in the annual Arizona Fall League. Drafted out of North Carolina State, Knizner has moved quickly through the Cardinals farm system, finding little resistance as he’s hit well and shown an excellent glove behind the plate as well. In 2018, Knizner spent his season between AA and AAA, hitting .313/.368/.430 with 18 doubles and 7 home runs over 94 games.

Knizner may not be a guy who will draw in a frontline starter all by himself, but using him in a trade package will certainly have more value for teams this offseason than it has in recent seasons. The Cardinals could use that to their advantage in a package deal for a big-time reliever or another bat for the lineup.

Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays are often coy in the trade market, not jumping on anything until the situation is absolutely perfect for them, as seen with Archer.

One of the things the Rays have been known for is the flexibility of their roster, using many players throughout the diamond. That has led to few of their players ever really getting full-time at bats, but it’s also allowed the Rays to consistently have healthy, productive players on the field.

As their farm system has been pushing the type of elite-talent players to the big league level that should be every day starters, the Rays could be shifting some of that philosophy, and that could lead to them moving some of the depth they have in flexibile players.

One of the top targets would most certainly be Daniel Robertson, who has played around the infield primarily over the last two seasons with a few games in the outfield tossed in as well. Robertson is known for an excellent eye at the plate, and while he doesn’t offer top-end power or speed, he offers good line-drive power that would work very well for a utility player.

With added emphasis on depth in the modern game, Robertson would definitely have a market once put out there after hitting .262/.382/.415 with 16 doubles and 9 home runs over 87 games and 340 plate appearances in 2018.

Texas Rangers

When Nomar Mazara was working his way up the minor leagues, many thought he would be an impact bat that would hit for power and average for the Rangers for many years to come.

While he’s not been a poor hitter, he’s not quite been the guy that the Rangers thought they were putting into the outfield every day, and defensively, he’s struggling to take steps forward and may be a DH long term.

The lefty-swinging Mazara looks the part of a monster power-hitter, with a 6’4″, 215-225 pound frame that is sculpted and looks like he should punish baseballs. However, as he heads into arbitration for the first time this offseason, the 23-year-old outfielder could have more value to the Rangers as a trade piece than as a lineup piece.

Over his three major league seasons, Mazara has hit .258/.320/.425 with 68 doubles and 60 home runs, and while he does keep strikeouts at a manageable rate, his walk rate hasn’t really taken the step forward many were hoping for either.

Mazara could still have plenty of value as he is just entering the arb process, and he has shown enough power to knock out 20 home runs each of his first three seasons. That could get a number of teams interested, and if the price was right, Mazara could be the piece that helped the Rangers get back a starter that is needed in their rotation.

Toronto Blue Jays

The rumors have been strong for multiple years, and coming off of a rough year may not help his value, but this might be the time to finally trade Marcus Stroman.

Stroman had by far his worst major league season in 2018 as he fought through injuries to make 19 starts and toss 102 1/3 innings with a 5.54 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, and a 36/77 BB/K ratio. There were signs that he’s really not seen any change in his value, however.

Stroman’s FIP in 2018 was nearly identical to his 2017 FIP and just a hair higher than his 2016 FIP, when he was one of the most-talked-about trade targets in baseball.

The diminutive right-hander has shown an excellent ability to keep hitters off balance with his sinker and slider combination, and while he did struggle with injury last season, he had eclipsed 200 innings the previous two seasons, something fairly rare in the modern game.

With the Jays putting together a club to compete as soon as 2020, Stroman could be moved this offseason with multiple years of control still left for a major-league ready arm or two for the Jays along with other pieces.

While the perception that his value is down, Stroman is no less valuable now than he was last offseason or at any other point in the last two years. There would be a significant line for his services the moment the Jays opened up offers.

Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals are still hoping to compete in 2019 and for at least another year or two beyond that, as long as finances will support it as the back-loaded contracts start to hit the same time their young players start to hit arbitration.

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That means they will be looking to be active in moving their top prospects in the market for needs this offseason. The guy that will likely be most highly-desired by trade partners will be infielder Carter Kieboom. Kieboom has lept up prospect lists in 2018, likely finding himself among the top 25 prospects in the entire game at this point.

That sort of elite-level prospect should be the type of player that is able to headline any deal for the Nationals as they look to find a second baseman, catcher, rotation depth, and bullpen depth this offseason.

Particularly, a few trusted people have mentioned that Kieboom could be a primary focus for the Miami Marlins if they were to move Realmuto to Washington. If they were able to secure Realmuto, Kieboom might be worth losing for the Nats.

Any way you spin it, the MLB hot stove should be exciting this offseason!

So what do you think? Is any team listed with the wrong player? Comment below!