Are Marlins pricing themselves out of a Realmuto trade?

While the Marlins have made it clear that they have every intention of dealing star catcher J.T. Realmuto, one now wonders whether or not they’re setting their standards too high for a return…

There’s no question about it, the Miami Marlins are in a stupidly tough spot right now. With the team’s biggest players practically begging to be dealt, the front office surely has their work cut out for them. The most interesting case is J.T. Realmuto, arguably the best offensive catcher in 2018, who has explicitly expressed his desire to leave Miami.

Understandably, the Marlins are putting a lofty price tag on Realmuto, who slashed an excellent .277/.340/.484 with 21 home runs this past season. Though he led all major league catchers in hits, doubles, WAR, runs and OPS, are the Marlins asking too much? Going even further, are they pricing themselves out of a Realmuto trade? The short answer is, possibly.

As Buster Olney of ESPN recently reported, “other teams that have checked in with Miami on Realmuto are convinced the Marlins will end up keeping the catcher through the winter”, due in part to extremely high asking price they’re touting in trade negotiations. Olney also notes that the Marlins wanted outfielder Victor Robles, a star prospect, from the Nationals, ultimately causing Mike Rizzo and his group to balk and turn to Kurt Suzuki for their catching needs. That’s one team removed from the market.

Additionally, as Mitchell Custer of Fish Stripes adds, the Atlanta Braves, who were previously considered a prime candidate to add catching (though not necessarily Realmuto exclusively), added Brian McCann on a one-year deal, potentially, as Custer puts it, “bottlenecking” the market for Realmuto. While McCann’s signing isn’t itself an absolute signal that the Braves are out for Realmuto, the team’s signing of Josh Donaldson to a $23 million contract, eating up a chunk of their payroll, should effectively serve as that signal. With Realmuto slated to make $6.1 million in arbitration (per MLBTR’s estimates), it’s unlikely they’ll make a move on him. Additionally, Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos recently expressed in a radio appearance that his team is most likely going to be looking at adding a high-end starter, a shutdown reliever, and an outfielder — no mention of catching whatsoever. There’s another one gone.

Now, other reports, including ones from Joe Frisaro of MLB.com, indicate that the Marlins have “about 10 teams” showing some interest in Realmuto. Frisaro adamantly notes that the Marlins have “no reason to settle”, and in some sense, he might be right. Still, as Jon Morosi of MLB Network adds, the Astros, one of the teams interested in him, are being asked to include Forrest Whitley or Kyle Tucker in a potential deal. Nothing’s confirmed, but it would incredibly surprising to see the Astros deal Whitley and/or Tucker, especially at this point.

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If one interprets the Astros as being one of the 10 teams Frisaro mentioned, then that number falls to a conservative seven, assuming the Nats and Braves have also removed themselves from the market.

Many have also suggested the Phillies as a possible landing spot for Realmuto, though at this point, that rumour doesn’t appear to have any legs, especially considering the Phillies look likely to add pitching, as evidenced by their recent meeting with Patrick Corbin and their highly reported interest in reliever Andrew Miller. Though Todd Zolecki of MLB.com advocates for the many benefits of adding Realmuto, it’s no sure thing.

Furthermore, Joel Sherman of the New York Post mentions that the Milwaukee Brewers, another National League team, have interest in him, though he doesn’t mention anything further. He also reinforces the Astros as a genuine landing spot, further noting that he has a 35% change of getting traded.

So, it seems the Astros could still be in, along with the Phillies and potentially the Brewers. Other, more vague reports have linked Realmuto to the Yankees and (speculatively), the Dodgers, though those too don’t seem to have legs.

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Overall, the above question of whether or not the Marlins have over-asked for Realmuto now appears to be even more difficult to answer, given that many teams are straddling the line for his market. It all comes down to the individual team. No one is doubting that Realmuto is a valuable, reasonably paid player, but if a team has to give up their entire farm in order to bring him in, it might be safer just to look elsewhere and let the Marlins eat up the rest of his arbitration years. Still, just like the rumours surrounding his future in Miami, the speculation surely just won’t go away, further fueling the excitement and intrigue around J.T. Realmuto’s market in 2018, and beyond.

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