Overhauling 2019’s Phillies bullpen
With a little stupid money, the Phillies strategy and direction are emerging from the front office, where every rock is either upside down or on its side regarding trade partners and free agents.
Unpredictable outcome:
While the recent offseasons for the Philadelphia Phillies continue to evolve, general manager Matt Klentak is making bolder plans with contention on the immediate horizon. And his calculation for ’19 promises to be even more daring if rumors are any indication concerning December and January.
IN OTHER WORDS “Every change begins with a vision and a decision to take action.” – David Bornstein
Firstly, fan bases love the buzz and the other aspects of the hot stove league, but some agents and teams deliberately leak information to benefit themselves. And all franchises have supporters of different stripes: critics, vent-influenced followers, “homers” and silent locals. But disagreeing can be problematic.
Unfortunately, the critics are the most vocal, dominate conversations, and negatively sway unhappy fans who question Klentak’s actions. But the origin is the first bad transaction, real or perceived: the seed planted and fed with additional deals not to the liking of the venting crowd.
Whether the faithful demand a closer or don’t believe management will acquire one, reports are indicating Klentak’s approach is to trade Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter and pursue a ninth-inning solution. But doing so would change the pen dynamic with three hurlers to handle the difficult or final outs.
If the Phils restructure the relief corps, Hector Neris will extinguish a sixth or seventh inning threat, and Seranthony Dominguez will face the hitters in critical situations during the seventh or eighth frames. And a new reliever will probably be the ninth-frame fireman.
While some locals chase every rumor for bits of information, Klentak is doing his due diligence by listening to the asking prices of free agents. And he’s also in contact with other GMs to find possible matches, but sometimes the player he inquires about isn’t available without a substantial overpay.
From this effort, the higher-ups will decide the best route to advance their goal. Will it be a closer, a left-handed starter and/or a big bat for the middle of the order? But keep in mind, competitors have interest in the same pieces, and the seller has needs to fulfill also. So, It’s anything but fast.
Flipping setup men:
With the shopping of Neshek and Hunter, Klentak is looking to either dump their combined $15.5 million for 2019 or receive prospects he can trade for a closer or a rotation southpaw. Therefore, he’ll have more financial flexibility to also sign Craig Kimbrel or Andrew Miller. Or a package for Edwin Diaz?
While Neshek is a reliable bullpen piece with a 2.59 ERA, the Phillies owe him $6.5 million including a $0.75 million buyout. In 2018, he even had five saves out of six opportunities. So, Klentak could receive some worthwhile prospects.
In 29 second-half games, Hunter worked 33 frames with a 3.00 ERA and notched three saves in four chances. Yes, he’s a solid reliever with closing experience, and GMs prefer more recent stats as a deciding factor. But his 2019 contract is for $9 million, so the Phils will probably eat some of it.
As for free agents, Kimbrel received a national-publication prediction of $70 million for four summers, but Klentak might propose a higher AAV (average annual value) with a three-season offer. Last year, the flamethrower had a 2.74 ERA with 42 saves. So, the exec will probably be in the mix for the fireman.
Regarding Diaz, the Seattle Mariners want a sky-high return for him because he has four years of club control including a prearbitration 162. But the M’s aren’t totally rebuilding, and Diaz is in their plans for 2021. Therefore, a long shot!
Four-seam fastballs:
- Kimbrel, 30.5: 97.2 mph average and 100.2 mph maximum with a curveball.
- Miller, 33.5: 93.2 mph average and 97.4 mph maximum with a slider.
- Diaz, 24.5: 97.4 mph average and 100.4 mph maximum with a slider.
- Britton, almost 31: sinker at 94.9 mph average and 97.6 mph maximum with a curveball.
Coming off a shortened campaign due to a hamstring strain, knee inflammation and a shoulder impingement, Miller will still command an estimated $27 million for three summers. Yes, his 2018 numbers skewed by injury are lowering his cost, but he is a risk worth taking. Or could age be a factor against a three-season pact?
Finally, lefty Zach Britton‘s financial forecast is $33 million for three campaigns due mostly to two years with physical difficulties: a strained forearm, a knee injury and a ruptured Achilles tendon. But he is working his way back to his 2016 levels with his sinker, producing ground balls, and nearing his previous effectiveness.
Critical pieces:
Based on the success of Dominguez and Neris upon his return, the Phillies have two stoppers from the sixth through the eighth frames. And these fireman proved they can prevent scoring: Neris when he returned and Dominguez when he had arrived. Add a ninth-inning arm?
By moving Neshek and Hunter and picking up a closer, the red pinstripes would have five pen openings. For now, Victor Arano, Adam Morgan and Edubray Ramos would work the lower-leverage frames in the sixth through the eighth. The portsider is Luis Avilan and one of the starters will be the long man.
Entering the last four innings, Neris could reprise the successful role he had after returning from the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs. In 20 outings, he fired 17 2/3 frames with a 2.04 ERA, and he had squelched a third-inning threat from the Boston Red Sox on Aug. 15: the day after his re-activation.
Following his struggles, Dominguez finished his last 12 appearances with a 2.03 ERA for 13 1/3 frames despite one poor performance: When he tried to record the final six outs against the Washington Nationals, he only got five. Basically, he had growing pains during his rough patch after being nearly perfect.
Acquiring a closer and a starter, the Phillies would then have seven rotation pieces unless they deal one or two. So, Jerad Eickhoff or Nick Pivetta could be the long reliever, and the closer will consistently handle the final three outs. For now thought, Kimbrel, Miller and Britton are just a consideration.
While fans are sorting through rumors, Klentak’s biggest signing will probably be the last area covered. The exec could add a southpaw starter or pick up a closer before that. Basically, what is the GM’s approach? All-in!
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
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Phillies statistical goal of 80 percent:
- Dominguez: 43 good, 1 so-so and 1 blowup out of 53 total for 83.0%
- Neris: 38 good, 2 so-so out and 4 blowups out of 53 total for 75.5%
- Neshek: 24 good, 2 so-so out and 1 blowup out of 30 total for 86.7%
- Hunter: 40 good, 7 so-so out and 0 blowups out of 65 total for 72.3%
- 4 earned runs for less than 2 innings or 3 earned runs in one frame or less are blowups.
Statistical goal of 80 percent:
- Kimbrel: 47 good, 3 so-so and 1 blowup out of 63 total for 79.4%
- Diaz: 59 good, 3 so-so and 1 blowup out of 73 total for 84.9%
- Miller: 22 good, 5 so-so and 2 blowups out of 36 total for 75.0%
- Britton: 32 good, 2 so-so and 1 blowup out of 41 total for 82.9%
Closers:
- Kimbrel, 30.5: 63 Gms., 62 1/3 Inn., a 2.74 ERA, 42 Saves, 5 BS, a 3.13 FIP, a 3.13 xFIP, a 2.71 SIERA, a 1.5 fWAR and a 0.99 WHIP.
- Diaz, 24.5: 73 Gms., 73 1/3 Inn., a 1.96 ERA, 57 Saves, 4 BS, a 1.61 FIP, a 1.78 xFIP, a 1.49 SIERA, a 3.5 fWAR and a 0.79 WHIP.
- Miller, 33.5: 37 Gms., 34 Inn., a 4.24 ERA, 2 Saves, 10 Holds, a 3.51 FIP, a 3.68 xFIP, a 3.29 SIERA, a 0.4 fWAR and a 1.38 WHIP.
- Britton, almost 31: 41 Gms., 40 2/3 Inn., a 3.10 ERA, 7 Saves, 9 Holds, a 4.22 FIP, a 3.75 xFIP, a 3.57 SIERA, a 0.1 fWAR and a 1.23 WHIP.
Phillies setup men:
- Dominguez, 24: 53 Gms., 58 Inn., a 2.95 ERA, 16 Saves, 14 Holds, 4 BS, a 2.85 FIP, a 3.04 xFIP, a 2.81 SIERA, a 1.3 fWAR and a 0.93 WHIP.
- Neris, 29.5: 53 Gms., 47 2/3 Inn., a 5.10 ERA, 11 Saves, 4 Holds, 3 BS, a 4.04 FIP, a 2.71 xFIP, a 2.28 SIERA, a 0.2 fWAR and a 1.30 WHIP.
- Hunter, 32.5: 65 Gms., 64 Inn., a 3.80 ERA, 4 Saves, 25 Holds, 1 BS, a 3.63 FIP, a 4.01 xFIP, a 3.69 SIERA, a 0.7 fWAR and a 1.25 WHIP.
- Neshek, 38: 30 Gms., 24 1/3 Inn., a 2.59 ERA, 5 Saves, 6 Holds, 1 BS, a 3.61 FIP, a 4.99 xFIP, a 4.51 SIERA, a 0.3 fWAR and a 1.15 WHIP.
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