MLB Best fastball: The Best Fastballs of 2018
With pitching at an all-time great level it is fun to look at individual pitchers and their arsenal to see which pitchers have the best pitches. What follows is an attempt to illustrate the best fastball in 2018.
Over the next few weeks, I am going to be rolling out this series documenting the best pitches in the major leagues in 2018 starting with four-seam fastballs. I won’t be looking for the best individual pitches but more the best overall body of work with a particular pitch. For now, these lists will only include starting pitchers as they not only provide a better sample, but they also have to work through lineups several times per start. This makes what a starting pitcher does with his pitches more impressive. These rankings are comprehensive based on several different aspects of the pitch. I won’t simply be ranking fastballs based on velocity, but also several other metrics deemed to be valuable to a productive fastball:
Velocity
Velocity is likely the most obvious factor here. The harder a pitcher throws, the less time the batter has to react to the pitch. Many people will try to say that the reason for the rise in strikeouts in baseball is because the hitters do not care about striking out anymore. There is some truth to that but the main cause for the steady increase in strikeouts over the years is the just as steady rise in velocity. Pitchers are throwing so hard these days it’s near impossible for hitters to catch up. Velocity is clearly important to a good fastball, but I would argue it is not the most important evaluative criteria.
Effective Velocity
Effective velocity is the hitter’s perception of the speed of the pitch. This is mostly based off of the pitcher’s release point. If the pitcher has a long stride and releases the baseball closer to home plate, his 90 mph fastball is going to get there quicker than a pitcher with a short stride who releases the pitch from further away. Effective velocity is probably a more important factor than radar gun velocity because it is what actually affects the game. However, I believe that there is still enough value in regular velocity to include them both in this exercise.
Spin Rate
Spin rate is a newer concept at least to the general baseball audience, but it has been proven to be quite the important factor to pitch performance. Fastballs thrown with a higher spin will typically have what is perceived to be a “rising” action. These fastballs are often thrown above the batters hands to create swings and misses. A low spin fastball will have sinking action and will be hit into the ground more often but will result in less whiffs. The problem area is a fastball thrown with medium spin where there is not enough spin to create the rising allusion but too much spin to sink properly. These are the fastballs that get hit hard. In the past four years since we have had Statcast data we have learned how important spin rates can be.
Movement
Movement is inherently one of the most important aspects of any pitch. It doesn’t matter how fast a pitch is if it’s too straight. Good late movement can be the difference between a swing and a miss and a 450-foot home run. Four-seam fastballs are of course the straightest of all pitches, but there is still a difference in fastball movement from pitcher to pitcher. Good moving fastballs are key for pitchers who cannot simply rely on elite velocity.
Whiff Rate
Swing and miss rate or “whiff rate” is the percentage of times that a batter swings at a pitch and misses. This is one of the single most important pitching statistics as it is a statistical illustration of how nasty the pitch is to the hitter. Ground balls are great but no damage can be done on a pitch that is never hit.
Ground Ball Rate
There is no slug on the ground. With hitters trying to elevate the ball more than ever in today’s game, it has become increasingly important to keep the ball on the ground. Ground balls are a pitcher’s best friend even in an era of increased strike outs. Pitchers that can keep the ball on the ground especially with their fastball have a distinct advantage over fly ball pitchers who are more prone to allowing home runs.
xwOBA
Expected Weighted On Base Average for my money is the ultimate per plate appearance pitching stat. It takes into account strike outs, walks and balls in play based on their expected outcomes. Using expected outcomes is much better than actual outcomes because there are so many random and lucky things that can happen on a batted ball. Giving the pitcher credit for these things that are out of his control is simply the wrong way to look at it. Looking at xwOBA allowed by pitch type will give us an idea of how well the pitcher was able to produce the kinds of batted balls that typically result in outs.
Without further ado, I present the top fastballs by starting pitchers in 2018:
Jacob deGrom
Coming in at number five on our best fastball list is the National League Cy Young award winner Jacob deGrom. If the criteria was weighted any differently deGrom would have a serious argument for number one on this list as deGrom has possibly the most dominant fastball in the sport. He has the fourth hardest average velocity which is impressive on its own, but he couples it with great extension giving him the second highest effective velocity in the game only behind Luis Severino. deGrom’s fastball produced sparkling statistics in 2018 as he allowed the second lowest xwOBA among starters and had the highest whiff% with a whopping 31.95%! His fastball was clearly a lethal weapon in 2018 and it helped him take home the Cy Young hardware at the end of the season as well as collect some MVP votes. The only reason deGrom’s fastball isn’t even higher on this list is due to some of the softer factors. This pitch has a middling spin rate, has very little movement, and did not produce a large amount of ground balls. The spin rate and movement don’t factor in as much here because of deGrom’s elite extension and deception that allow this already high velocity pitch to play up even more. deGrom also makes up for his lack of ground balls by inducing more swings and misses on his fastball than anyone else. deGrom is clearly an elite pitcher and it all starts with his fastball.
Zack Wheeler
Number four on this list is another Met, Zack Wheeler. While trade rumors surrounded this talented right-hander throughout the summer, Wheeler did finish out his resurgent season still pitching for the Mets.
In 2018, Wheeler completed his first full season since 2014, while also posting career-best strikeout and walk numbers. Wheeler has excellent velocity on his fastball, averaging nearly 96 mph, and even better effective velocity at 97 mph.
While his fastball has a middling spin rate, it excels in every other category. He gets really good movement on his fastball and generates a ton of ground balls at 43%. The excellent ground ball rate coupled with his very good 23% whiff rate helped him limit opposing batters to just a .307 xwOBA against his fastball.
Wheeler will attempt to put together two good, healthy seasons in a row in 2019 before hitting free agency at season’s end. If he can do that he should be in store for a hearty pay-day as he has some of the best stuff in the game when he is healthy and on the mound, and he will be just 29 entering free agency.
Justin Verlander
Houston Astros ace, Justin Verlander, comes in at number three on the list. Verlander put up more stellar numbers in 2018, adding to what should be a Hall of Fame career.
In fact, at the age of 35 Verlander just finished arguably his best season. He had career bests in strikeout rate, walk rate, FIP, xFIP and the second lowest ERA of his career. Just an incredible season deserving of a Cy Young award.
Verlander’s success unsurprisingly stems from his incredible fastball. His fastball features good velocity, good movement and the highest spin rate in baseball. All of this equates to an excellent 29.33% whiff rate and a minuscule .275 xwOBA against on his fastball.
The only aspect to Verlander’s fastball that is not elite is his 20% ground ball rate, but this is mostly by design as he pitches up in the zone with his high spin heater which produces a swing and a miss nearly 30% of the time and weak fly balls on contact.
After a dip from 2013-2016 Verlander has also gotten his fastball velocity back closer to his early career levels. Verlander is not a pitcher that gets good extension however and he has a lower effective velocity than his actual velocity numbers. However, the incredible spin that he puts on the baseball coupled with the good movement the pitch has more than makes up for the difference.
Gerrit Cole
Runner-up for best fastball of 2018 is another Astro, Gerrit Cole.
Acquired by the Astros before the season from the Pittsburgh Pirates, Cole put together one of the best seasons of his solid young career. Cole had a career-high strikeout rate of his career by a mile and his fastball was a big part of that.
Cole’s fastball was extremely good in every factor except ground ball rate, which could just be an Astros philosophy as his strikeout and ground ball numbers closely resemble that of Verlander’s. Cole throws one of the fastest fastballs in the game with a good spin rate and excellent movement. His fastball induced an extremely high 29.62% whiff rate and he only allowed a .297 xwOBA against his fastball.
Cole has been a good pitcher his whole career, but the move to Houston seemed to unlock his true potential that had been lying within. Cole was a serious contender for the Cy Young award in 2018 finishing fifth for the award and if he continues this level of performance, he will be contending for them on a yearly basis.
Max Scherzer
Finally, the best fastball of 2018 was that of Washington Nationals ace, Max Scherzer.
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Scherzer has been one of the most dominant pitchers in the game for years, before he even got to Washington. While Scherzer attacks hitters with several pitches, it all starts with his otherworldly fastball.
Scherzer’s fastball excels in every facet. He has good speed on the pitch as it averages 94.4 mph, it has a good six inches of movement toward his arm side, and it is one of the highest spin fastballs in the game. Add in his incredible command of the pitch and you get the best fastball in the game.
Only deGrom generated more swings and misses on his fastball than Scherzer’s 30.43% and no one held hitters to a lower xwOBA against the fastball than Scherzer’s .250. It was truly an incredible season that got overlooked thanks to deGrom’s historic campaign and the Nationals struggles as a team.
Best non-Kimbrel reliever available. dark. Next
Watching Scherzer pitch makes you understand that while having elite velocity is important, it takes more to make a great fastball. All five of these pitchers had a strong case for having the best four-seam fastball of 2018 but the culmination of all the factors lead to the crowning of Max Scherzer. With as good as these pitchers are I would not be surprised to see similar faces on next year’s list.