San Diego Padres top 10 prospects for 2019

The San Diego Padres have built up the deepest farm system in the game. Will they begin to see that system bear fruit in 2019?

We are in our third offseason at Call to the Pen of putting together top 10 prospect lists for every organization in baseball. Today’s list is the San Diego Padres.

The Process

Our team prospect lists are compiled by Benjamin Chase, who has spent time doing plenty of watching via MiLB.tv of every organization in baseball along with talking to a very wide array of scouts who have seen players in person to hone his own opinion on players. That allows for a wide coverage on players from the Dominican Summer League all the way to the major leagues.

These lists are the opinion of Ben, and his process is heavily weighted on his own view, but also on trusted views of others. Typically, each system’s list of 10 is peeled down from a consideration list of 50-75 players. There will be some weight given to a player who is closer to the major leagues, but often these opinions will be different than some of the “major” lists out there. Feel free to comment at the end of the list with any questions you may have!

With that out of the way, let’s dig into today’s list:

San Diego Padres system review

Padres list for 2017
Padres list for 2018
Padres 2018 minor league top performers

So, this is it. This is the top banana, the alpha dog, the prime enchilada, all of those things. The San Diego Padres have spent funds in the international market and drafted well over the last few seasons to build up one of the best and deepest farm systems of recent memory. Right now, there’s not even really a debate with the Padres as the top farm system.

As such, this list was probably my most difficult to decide. In all seriousness, the player I put #10 was probably the guy I’d have about #20 if I were to put true value rankings on the prospects, but I also wanted to take the opportunity to highlight a prospect that I truly believe in within a tremendous farm system.

After seeing over 800 plate appearances and over 500 innings go to rookies in 2018, the San Diego Padres expect to see both of those numbers go up in 2019 as they begin to harvest some of the fruits from this amazing farm system. In other words, if you’re a minor league fan, enjoy the chance to see these guys while you can as they’re not long for the minor leagues!

Let’s start with the countdown, starting with a player that fell outside of the top 10, but was picked up in 2018 via the draft or international signing and is worthy of extra attention going into 2019…

10. Hudson Potts, 3B

Birthday: 10/28/1998 (20)
Acquired: Draft, 1st round, 2016
Level(s): high-A Lake Elsinore, AA San Antonio
Statistics: .260/.335/.455, 128 G, 542 PA, 35 2B, 19 HR, 8.7% BB, 26.8% K

The incredible part with the San Diego Padres system is that I could easily select a dozen players for this spot and very few would have an argument. I do think the 1-9 in the system is fairly set, and some may have different orders for those guys, but those are generally the top 9 in the system.

I went with the 2016 1st rounder Hudson Potts after getting a number of looks at Potts this season. After having played shortstop for most of his draft season, he transitioned to third base in 2017, and some had mixed reviews of his work at third in 2018, but in the games I saw, Potts had an ample arm for the position and was intentionally working on things at the position (positioning, coming in on balls, etc.) in each game, which sometimes led to him looking out of position, but if you note that he’s seemingly intentionally doing his positioning, you get a better idea of what’s going on.

Potts has filled out a bunch since being drafted, and that is a concern in his position going forward, but he showed excellent instincts that should allow him to handle the position.

At the plate, there’s much less concern to me. Potts has an impressive swing that generates “leap” off of the bat. He’s not going to likely be a guy who generates 30 home runs (though in the majors, that’s feasible based on the ball), but he should be a guy that pounds gaps and works more in the 15-20 home run range.

What I’ve loved about Potts throughout his minor league time thus far is his baseball acumen, which is incredibly high. He should open at AA in 2019, but if he can show he’s ready, the San Diego Padres have an opening currently at third base that he could certainly fill into.

9. Logan Allen, LHP

Birthday: 5/23/1997 (21)
Acquired: Trade with Boston, November 2015
Level(s): AA San Antonio, AAA El Paso
Statistics: 14-6, 25 G, 24 GS, 148 2/3 IP, 2.54 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 8.6% BB, 25.4% K

After the San Diego Padres saw Joey Lucchesi and Eric Lauer come up in 2018 and find success at the major league level, they could have another lefty ready to break through in 2019 in Logan Allen.

Allen is about as unassuming a pitching prospect as could be found, standing a fairly “average” 6’3″ and 200 pounds, working with a fastball that is mostly average, working in the 92-95 range, touching 96 at times. He uses impressive location and command of the fastball to set up everything else he does on the mound.

His primary offspeed pitch is a change that’s an easy plus pitch, able to generate weak swings from both sides of the plate. He compliments both with a curve that really stepped forward in 2018, becoming a legit strikeout weapon for Allen.

Allen has the look of a guy who would slot at the back of a rotation, but he’s always outperformed his “look”, making hitters look silly all the way up the ladder with a smart approach on the mound and the ability to pound the corners and edges of the zone with his pitches.

He could find himself in the San Diego Padres rotation as early as opening day, but certainly, he will be earning starts this season at the big league level.

8. Michel Baez, RHP

Birthday: 1/21/1996 (22)
Acquired: International free agent, December 2016
Level(s): high-A Lake Elsinore, AA San Antonio
Statistics: 4-10, 21 GS, 105 IP, 3.69 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 10% BB, 25.1% K

This was probably not the follow-up season that the San Diego Padres had in mind. After a dominant first season in the organization after the Padres signed the huge 6’8″ righty out of Cuba where he put up a 10/89 BB/K over 63 2/3 innings, he found the sledding more difficult in 2018.

Of course, at 6’8″, one of the major issues will always be control, and after dominating in high-A, once he bumped up to AA, Baez struggled with his delivery and thus lost his control, walking 12 over 18 1/3 innings.

Due to the long arm motion in his delivery, Baez will have struggle if his delivery gets off at all, but when he’s on, he can fire a fastball that bumps triple digits, sitting mid-90s deep into games with little effort. He gets an impressive downward angle due to his height as well, making it difficult for hitters to drive the heater.

When his delivery is right, his slider is a true plus pitch, and can even flash double-plus, showing hard, sharp bite that jumps away from a bat seemingly just before it’s contacted. His change is still a work in progress, but he does have excellent tumble on the pitch that creates grounders when he’s on with his delivery.

Baez fills up the zone when he’s working well in his delivery, and with his stuff that will allow him to play to a inning-eater mid-rotation guy, but he has a certain fallback as the bullpen with his stuff and size. The San Diego Padres will likely open Baez in AA in 2019.

7. Luis Patino, RHP

Birthday: 10/26/1999 (19)
Acquired: International free agent, July 2016
Level(s): low-A Fort Wayne
Statistics: 6-3, 17 GS, 83 1/3 IP, 2.16 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 7.3% BB, 29.7% K

While not the most physically imposing piece of the 2016-2016 international signing class, Columbian Luis Patino has emerged as one of the top prospects from that signing class, with a mature body allowing to impact early in his minor league career.

Patino works with a fastball that can bump triple digits and sits 93-96 with some impressive movement. Patino generates abnormally sharp movement due to his long stride and long limbs for his 6′ frame. Some have compared his hands to a young Pedro Martinez, who was known to have long fingers for his smallish frame, giving him a unique ability to create movement on the ball.

Patino’s breaking pitches both picked up plenty over the course of the 2018 season, with many evaluators I spoke with having difficulty grading one over the other. Coming into the season, his slider was considered his best breaking pitch, but his looping curve has seemingly overtaken it, receiving plenty of plus grades.

Patino’s small size requires him to stay in his delivery well to keep his control, and he can get a bit rushed in his delivery and see his fastball flatten out along with his slider losing its bite.

At just 19 for the entire 2019 season, Patino should open in high-A and the San Diego Padres will let him work through his delivery, very possibly working his way up to AA as a teenager.

6. Chris Paddack, RHP

Birthday: 1/8/1996 (22)
Acquired: Trade with Miami Marlins, June 2016
Level(s): high-A Lake Elsinore, AA San Antonio
Statistics: 7-3, 17 GS, 90 IP, 2.10 ERA, 0.82 WHIP, 2.4% BB, 35.3% K

Returning from Tommy John surgery in 2018, Chris Paddack was absolutely incredible across two levels of the San Diego Padres system in 2018, incredibly becoming even better in AA, with a 1.91 ERA and .177 opponents average with San Antonio.

Paddack is a 6’4″ lean righty that really isn’t going to blow anyone away with his pure velocity, typically running his fastball up to the mid-90s and sitting around 92-94 with incredible location of the pitch and handle of its late movement.

He compliments the fastball with arguably the best changeup in the entire farm system. Depending if you want to consider Morejon’s knuckle change in the same category, he’s either #1 by a ways or has one competitor! The change draws swing and miss along with horrific swings from hitters, putting weak contact on the pitch if they do make contact.

In returning from surgery, Paddack showed tremendous growth in his curve as well, which played as a plus pitch as well, getting a big loop with the pitch, but locating it brilliantly.

The control and command for Paddack absolutely sets him apart, and as long as he can remain healthy, he’ll have the ability to play up his mid-rotation projection to a #2 starter at least. The San Diego Padres will look to up his workload as he works through the upper minors in 2019.

5. Adrian Morejon, LHP

Birthday: 2/27/1999 (19)
Acquired: International Free Agent, July 2016
Level(s): AZL Padres 1, high-A Lake Elsinore
Statistics: 4-5, 14 GS, 65 1/3 IP, 3.44 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 8.7% BB, 26.8% K

Absolutely dominant in international competition for Cuba, the San Diego Padres gave Adrian Morejon a team-record $11 million signing bonus to come from Cuba. Incredibly he was even better than could have been expected in his 2017 debut, putting up a 16/58 BB/K over 63 innings and making it all the way up to low-A at 18.

Morejon struggled through a pair of injuries in 2018, but luckily, neither were injuries that should affect Morejon’s long-term health, nonetheless, the Padres did shut him down in August as a safety precaution, wanting to protect their young lefty’s arm.

At his best, Morejon offers four or even five potential plus pitches, led by a fastball that can reach mid-90s with late wiggle. He uses a pair of changes, each flashing plus. His knuckle change sat plus in 2018 and often flashed double-plus, while his “straight” change worked as an above-average pitch with flashes of plus.

Morejon’s curve can be shaped as either a sharp-breaking short curve or a looping curve, and he seems to do very well sequencing his pitches. The issue for Morejon, beyond injury, in 2018 was a touch of issue repeating his release point on his breaking pitches, which gave him a hair of a tell on them.

Still just 20 when the season opens, it is quite likely the San Diego Padres allow Morejon to move up to AA, though his lack of innings built onto his arm will be something the team will want to focus on before moving him up to the majors as a full-time starter. Morejon has the makings of a #2 starter if all can come together.

4. Luis Urias, 2B

Birthday: 6/3/1997 (21)
Acquired: International Free Agent, December 2013
Level(s): AAA El Paso, MLB San Diego Padres
Statistics: Minors: .296/.398/.447, 120 G, 533 PA, 30 2B, 7 3B, 8 HR, 2 SB, 12.6% BB, 20.5% K

Signed out of Mexico as one of the most overlooked prospects in recent memory, Luis Urias immediately became one of the jewels of the San Diego Padres system. He’s done nothing but hit his entire minor league career, with a .306 career batting average over the minor leagues.

Urias was moved to second base primarily due to arm strength, but he has more than enough arm to handle second base, just not quite enough long-term to be a shortstop. He flashed plus range when filling time this year at shortstop, and he took reps at third base in AAA this year as well. No matter where on the dirt he plays, Urias is a vacuum, scooping up anything he gets to and making plays on it.

At the plate, Urias may not profile as a future 30 home run or 30 stolen base guy, but he has an incredible ability to get the meat of the bat to the ball. He doesn’t have plus power by any means, but he is able to smack the ball such that he tallies plenty of doubles and triples.

On the bases, Urias won’t be a guy to put up huge stolen base numbers. While he has very good instincts on defense and flashes big range there, his first step on the bases is not great, which keeps him from stealing big numbers. Don’t get me wrong, though, Urias is an elite baserunner, and he is an absolute asset at the top of the lineup with his contact skills, eye at the plate, and baserunning.

The San Diego Padres are going to give Urias every opportunity to open 2019 at the major league level, and he and Tatis are the future double play combo for many years in San Diego.

3. Francisco Mejia, C

Birthday: 10/27/1995 (23)
Acquired: Trade with Cleveland Indians, July 2018
Level(s): AAA Columbus, AAA El Paso, MLB Cleveland Indians, MLB San Diego Padres
Statistics: Minors: .293/.338/.471, 110 G, 468 PA, 30 2B, 2 3B, 14 HR, 5.3% BB, 17.7% K; Majors: .179/.258/.375, 21 G, 62 PA, 2 2B, 3 HR, 8.1% BB, 30.6% K

The sole return for the San Diego Padres as they traded away two relievers, including closer Brad Hand, in July of 2018, Francisco Mejia first jumped on the scene for prospect folks when he had a 50-game hit streak in 2016 in the Cleveland Indians system in A-ball.

Since, Mejia has been struggling to establish himself as a catcher defensively, though he absolutely has the raw tools. Mejia is athletic behind the plate, with a plus arm, but he struggles with his footwork in moving laterally and blocking pitches, and that footwork often hurts his work in the run game as well. He has worked the last two seasons at other positions to increase his flexibility, but the Padres seem intent on having him stay behind the plate.

While Mejia has a high-quality contact tool, he doesn’t take a ton of pitches, which does limit his potential lineup spots as a contact-driven hitter with line-drive power. Mejia will likely translate to a 20-25 home run hitter in the major leagues with different parks and balls, but even then, his primary power will be into the gaps, where he’s likely to be a high-average hitter with plenty of doubles.

While there’s plenty of room for that profile in a catcher that has above-average defense, Mejia could be tough to keep on the field if the defense doesn’t tick up in quality. With quality defender Austin Hedges on board, the San Diego Padres can ease Mejia into the job in 2019.

2. MacKenzie Gore, LHP

Birthday: 2/24/1999 (19)
Acquired: Draft, 1st round, 2017
Level(s): low-A Fort Wayne
Statistics: 2-5, 16 GS, 60 2/3 IP, 4.45 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 6.9% BB, 28.4% K

While teammate Patino was turning stat heads this season in Fort Wayne, MacKenzie Gore was making people wonder if something was up, but if you saw the young lefty pitch, you saw one of the elite young prospects in all of baseball.

The San Diego Padres drafted Gore with the 3rd overall selection in 2017. He immediately came out and showed exactly what made him an elite selection, putting up a 1.27 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over 21 1/3 innings in rookie ball, with an incredible 7/34 BB/K ratio.

Gore put up elite numbers in high school, striking out over 330 hitters in roughly 150 innings of work. He used a tremendous high leg kick that he is able to repeat very well in his athletic 6’3″ frame to keep hitters off base, and the delivery still keeps hitters off, but as he’s returned from injury at times, he’s struggled with keeping his delivery consistent.

When he’s healthy, the stuff is incredibly elite, with a fastball that works into the mid-90s and sits in the 92-93 range most of his starts with tremendous late wiggle. The shape of his curve is such that it leaves hitters completely frozen and is a double-plus pitch. Just those two pitches would give Gore an impressive repertoire, but he also has a hard-biting slider and a sinking change that also show plus as well, giving him four pitches that all at least show plus, and in games where he’s had all four working in that way, it’s simply unfair to hitters.

The Padres are easing innings onto Gore’s arm, and they will let his own readiness and health dictate his path. If he were to be healthy and dominate high-A to open 2019 then continue dominating AA, he could end up in AAA by the end of the season at age 20, but the speed of his ascent will be up to how he handles each level as there is a true ace potential here, and the San Diego Padres will handle his development carefully.

1. Fernando Tatis, Jr., SS

Birthday: 1/2/1999 (19)
Acquired: Trade with Chicago White Sox, June 2016
Level(s): AA San Antonio
Statistics: .286/.355/.507, 88 G, 394 PA, 22 2B, 4 3B, 16 HR, 16 SB, 8.4% BB, 27.7% K

One of the elite prospects in all of baseball, Fernando Tatis, Jr. opened his season with a horrific April, hitting .177/.231/.333 for the month, but before his season was ended due to a fractured thumb, he’d added over 100 points to each of his slash lines. It seemed that flipping the calendar immediately flipped a switch with Tatis, as he went 3-5 with 2 doubles, a home run, a walk, and a hit-by-pitch on the first of May, and he hit .327/.400/.572 the rest of the way with a 9.3% walk rate and 25.9% strikeout rate.

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The injury was incredibly unfortunate as Tatis was likely to receive an August call to AAA with a shot to get time in the majors in September. Instead, he is now getting some time in the Dominican Winter League to get ready for the regular season.

Coming into the 2018 season, one of the big questions with Tatis was whether he would be able to maintain his ability to stay at short as he grew, and he added muscle in the 2017/2018 offseason, but he also worked hard to keep himself in excellent shape, and his defense certainly did not suffer at all. He’s likely to be an above-average defender, not a plus one, but his arm will make up for it as he has an extremely strong arm.

Tatis offers a rare blend of power and speed. He had 16 home runs and 16 steals in only 88 games. Just project that into 150 games, and you have 27 home runs and steals. In 2017, Tatis hit 22 home runs and stole 32 bases.

The San Diego Padres will be giving Fernando Tatis, Jr. a chance to win the shortstop job in spring training. It will be intriguing to see if he’s going to open the season in AAA or the big leagues. Either way, he should spend significant time, barring injury, in the major leagues in 2019.

The San Diego Padres have the elite farm system in all of baseball. They are beginning to see players reach the major leagues, and 2019 should see many more from the deep farm system arrive in the majors.