A number of players in MLB free agency this year could benefit from taking a one-year deal.
There has long been a discussion of the hypothetical player who is so confident in his skills that he takes one-year deals every single year to maximize his earning potential. It’s long been known that when, for example, the Mariners offer $24 million per year to Robinson Cano in a deal that will go into his 40s, they don’t expect him to be worth $24 million as a 41-year-old, but they are basically paying him long-term for his short-term production. But if a player only asked for one year, teams would be able to offer more money without having to worry about his future decline.
Nevertheless, the bargaining chip of future security that a team can offer a player ultimately makes it so that an elite player makes less than his true market value. Fangraphs has a tool that creates a dollar figure for a player-season based on his WAR and the average cost of a win on the free agent market. Based on this figure, Mike Trout was worth $78.5 million to the Angels in 2018, yet Trout made just north of $34 million in 2018, since he was willing to take the long-term security of a six-year. $144.5 million deal before the 2014 season.
One so far
The closest thing there is to the idea of a player taking one-year deals every season is the idea of the “pillow contract,” where a player takes a one-year deal with the hope of re-establishing his value for the next offseason. This was in the news last week when 2015 AL MVP Josh Donaldson signed a one-year, $23 million deal with the Atlanta Braves.
Donaldson is not far removed from MVP form, but after a 2018 season where he only played 52 games and wasn’t quite himself when he was on the field. Donaldson is hoping to improve his stock and get a big deal after the 2019 season. Let’s take a look at some other players who could rebuild their value by taking a one-year deal and re-entering free agency next year.