Seattle Mariners: Evaluating the prospects in the Cano deal

The Seattle Mariners were able to move the contract of Robinson Cano to the New York Mets on Saturday evening after multiple days of intense rumors. Who are the prospects the Mariners got back?

In what appears to be a significant teardown, the Seattle Mariners were able to unload one of the biggest contracts on their books on Saturday night when they traded Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz to the New York Mets (along with a reported $20 million in cash) for Jay Bruce, Anthony Swarzak, and three prospects. Mariners fans are certainly asking themselves just how good are these prospects in order to move the best closer in the game in 2018?!

First, we need to address something…

The Seattle Mariners farm system

Coming into the offseason, there were two things that were clear in the minor leagues as far as teams go – the San Diego Padres had the clear best system in the entire game, and the Seattle Mariners had the clear worst system. Some overtures have been made by Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto that he would like to see the Mariners be able to move themselves to one of the top farm systems in the game over the course of this winter’s dealings.

To put it kindly, that ain’t happening.

Even with the acquisition of three prospects that all would rank in the top 10 of Mariners prospects in their trade with the New York Yankees for James Paxson, the Mariners in my personal farm system rankings had moved from 30th to 28th. This deal, along with an admittedly shrewd acquisition of young lefty Ricardo Sanchez from the Atlanta Braves perhaps could get the Mariners more in the #20 range, if I sat down to examine it and draw them all out.

However, the Mariners would need to somehow milk elite prospects from some of the elite systems in each of their remaining trades of the offseason to even have a chance at top 10, let alone top 5 among the farm systems in the game.

With that out of the way, let’s take a look at the players involved in the deal, starting with the two pitchers…

A power reliever

If any of the three arms will be seen in a Seattle Mariners uniform in 2019, it will be Gerson Bautista. Bautista is a flame-throwing 23-year-old from the Dominican Republic who just made his major league debut in 2018 for the Mets.

Originally signed by the Boston Red Sox, Bautista came to the Mets organization as part of the midseason deal for Addison Reed in 2017. In his first season with the Mets farm system, he put up solid strikeout numbers, punching out 69 hitters in 49 innings, but his fastball was much too straight, and that showed up significantly in the major leagues, where in spite of an average of 96.9 MPH on the fastball, Bautista allowed 6 runs, including 2 home runs, over 4 1/3 innings.

Sent to the Arizona Fall League, Bautista worked on getting more wiggle on the fastball, and he had good results, with a 2.38 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over 11 1/3 innings, striking out 11. Bautista used better location with his slider as a big reason for his success in the AFL, and he’ll look to continue efforts he began with the Mets to clean up his delivery for even more control and command of his fastball, slider, and a seldom-used (but often effective when thrown) changeup.

He won’t replace Diaz by any means, but he should be a member of the 2019 Mariners bullpen, if not on Opening Day, soon thereafter.

A relief convert

Before his draft season with Boston College, Justin Dunn had started just 7 of his 27 collegiate appearances. Even in his draft season, Dunn made just 8 starts out of 18 appearances, which led to his dominant stuff being a significant point of debate in pre-draft rankings for many teams. Some teams liked him in the first round, and other teams were out until the third round at least.

The Mets drafted Dunn 19th overall, and he came out and showed very well in the New York-Penn League in his draft season, with a 1.50 ERA and 35 strikeouts over 30 innings.

He was pushed up to high-A St. Lucie in the Florida State League in 2017, and he struggled with nagging injuries and general control issues throughout the season, with a 5.00 ERA and 1.56 WHIP over 95 1/3 innings, but with an 11.1% walk rate and just a 17.3% strikeout rate.

Dunn worked with the Mets in the offseason before 2018 to clean up his delivery, and the results were excellent. Dunn’s mid-90s fastball was able to locate much better, which allowed for its natural sink to really play up. His improved location also allowed his plus slider and average change to play up significantly as well.

On the 2018 season, Dunn made it up to AA, totaling 135 1/3 innings, with a 3.59 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, and a 52/156 BB/K. He’ll likely open in AA again but move quickly to AAA when the Mariners feel he’s ready, and he could even see a little time at the big league level in September.