MLB Free Agency: Potential landing spots for A.J. Pollock
The top outfielder in MLB free agency is clear, but the former Arizona Diamondbacks center fielder could be the #2 outfielder on the market. Where could he fit?
On Sunday, it was reported that former Diamondbacks’ center fielder A.J. Pollock is looking for an $80 million deal in MLB free agency. This should be treated with a grain of salt, as Sam Miller found two years ago that a player, on average, receives 87.5% of what he is reported as “seeking.” That unscientific estimate would put Pollock at $70 million, which would still be significantly higher than the estimate from MLB Trade Rumors, which pegs Pollock to get a four-year, $60 million deal.
It is certainly possible that Pollock is able to make more than expected this offseason, as the market for center fielders is barren. However, Pollock’s injury history could give pause to teams looking to upgrade in the outfield.
Pollock has only played more than 140 games once in his career, and he hasn’t topped 120 since 2015, missing almost the entirety of 2016 with a fractured elbow. Dexter Fowler and Lorenzo Cain, two outfielders whose recent $80 million-plus deals are clearly the inspiration for Pollock’s demands, showed greater ability to stay on the field before signing their monster deals.
That said, when Pollock is on the field, he has shown elite skills. Before going to the DL in mid-May of 2018, Pollock was receiving early-season MVP buzz, putting up a .293/.349/.620 line with 11 home runs in just 40 games. In his career, Pollock rates as 13-percent better than offense according to wRC+, Fangraphs’ all-encompassing, park-adjusted metric.
Whether or not Pollock is able to reach his lofty contract demands, there are certainly teams that could use his bat at a premium position, and let’s take a look at where he would fit best.
San Francisco Giants
MLB Trade Rumors guesses the Giants will go out and get Pollock. It makes sense, as Giants’ center fielders combined for -0.9 Fangraphs WAR, only beating out the depleted outfield of the Miami Marlins at the position.
At the end of the 2018 season, Giants’ manager Bruce Bochy said that he expects Steven Duggar to be the 2019 Opening Day center fielder after impressing team leadership in his 41-game debut at the end of 2018.
It is worth noting that the Giants didn’t just struggle in center field, as their entire outfield combined for 0.1 fWAR, the third-worst in MLB. Even if Bochy and the front office believe in Duggar going forward, there would be plenty of room in the outfield for Duggar and Pollock with the official depth chart showing Chris Shaw and Austin Slater as the starting left fielder and right fielder, respectively.
However, there is always the question of how competitive the Giants expect to be in the next few years after losing 98 games in 2017 and 89 in 2018. They believed they could compete before the 2018 season, trading for Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria. We know how the 2018 season worked out for the Giants, but it’s worth noting that the Giants made big moves last offseason following a 98-loss season, so it wouldn’t be too surprising to see them go out and spend this offseason.
At this point, it is unclear whether newly hired GM Farhan Zaidi will begin to tear apart and rebuild the Giants or if he will make moves to try to make the team competitive in the short-term, but on paper, A.J. Pollock to the Giants makes too much sense.
Chicago White Sox
The Chicago White Sox are an interesting team. Before the 2017 season, the Sox dealt Chris Sale to the Red Sox and Adam Eaton to the Nationals for a flurry of prospects.
However, this rebuild did not seem like the White Sox were kicking the can down the road too far, as the prospects they acquired, like Yoan Moncada, Lucas Giolito, and Michael Kopech, didn’t seem too far from being big contributors at the major league level.
After losing 95 games in 2017, the Pale Hose looked to vastly improve in 2018 on the backs of their young studs, but that didn’t happen. Instead, the Sox lost 100 games, with Moncada leading the league in strikeouts, Giolito leading the league in earned runs (in the bad direction), and Kopech succumbing to a torn UCL after just four MLB starts. Adam Engel got most of the starts in center field and put up a meager 68 wRC+, meaning he was 32 percent worse than the average player on offense.
If the White Sox are looking to compete in the near future, they will obviously need their young players to step it up, but they will also need to be willing to supplant their young talent with veteran players on the free agent market, and A.J. Pollock seems like a great fit for them.
Colorado Rockies
This one may seem odd, as the Rockies just made a move to lock up their three-time All-Star center fielder, Charlie Blackmon, to an extension that will last three more years, and potentially more if he exercises team options in 2022 or 2023. Even after a slightly disappointing offensive season in 2018, there is absolutely no doubt that Blackmon has a spot in the lineup for many years to come.
However, there is certainly a question as to whether he should stay in center field due to his poor defense. According to the defensive metric Defensive Runs Saved, Blackmon cost the Rockies 28 runs with his fielding, the worst mark of any player at any position in 2018. Blackmon is simply unplayable in center, especially given the huge amount of space in the Coors Field outfield. A.J. Pollock may not be an elite defensive center fielder, but he’s certainly passable, and moving Blackmon to a corner spot would immediately improve the Rockies.
The Rockies also desperately a bat like Pollock in their lineup, as the 2018 team had the sixth-worst offense in baseball by wRC+. The ineptitude of their offense was on display on the national stage, when the Brewers allowed just two runs in three games en route to an NLDS sweep. Pollock’s bat would be a great addition to the Rockies’ lineup, and his ability to play a solid center field would improve them on the other side of the ball.
Cleveland Indians
The Indians cruised to a division victory in 2018 in what was, quite possibly, the worst division of all time. But the Indians were flawed, which was made evident when the Houston Astros dismantled them in the ALDS. One of those flaws was an extremely weak outfield outside of Michael Brantley, who joins Pollock in this free agent class. Their second-best outfielder by fWAR was Lonnie Chisenhall, who has already jumped ship to join the Pittsburgh Pirates.
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The Indians are very top-heavy, with Jose Ramirez and Francisco Lindor carrying them on offense and the trio of Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, and Carlos Carrasco leading, perhaps, the best rotation in baseball.
Barring a huge surprise, the Indians are penciled into the top spot in the AL Central, but they still seem a step below the true elite of the American League that consists of the Boston Red Sox, New York Yankees, and Houston Astros. Pollock certainly wouldn’t catapult Cleveland into the top spot in the AL, but he’s the kind of supplemental piece that the Indians need to truly put them into contention.
Maybe the removal of the racist Chief Wahoo logo for the 2019 season from the uniforms will give the Tribe some good luck in the new year.
dark. Next. Looking at prospects in Mariners/Mets deal
As one of the top outfielders on the market this year, Pollock will certainly have multiple suitors, though he may not find MLB free agency to bring quite the contract he’s desiring.