Five names to watch in the upcoming Rule 5 Draft
Winter Meetings are upon us and that means loads of transactions are bound to happen. It also means the Rule 5 Draft is just around the corner. It will take place on December 13.
This draft is a good time to find talent that other teams just do not have room for. Players like Roberto Clemente have come out of the Rule 5 Draft before. Though more often than not these selections still need a little more seasoning before their true potential is seen.
Last years top pick, Victor Reyes, is a great example of that. He made the jump from Double A to the majors and hit .222 in his rookie year with inconsistent playing time. While it was clear that Reyes was not quite ready, he flashed potential of what made him look so enticing to the Detroit Tigers.
Other players can be contributors right away. Brad Keller was taken by the fifth by the Cincinnati Reds, then dealt to the Kansas City Royals in exchange for a player to be named later or cash. In his rookie year, Keller was worth 2.5 fWAR.
Becoming Rule 5 Eligible
The purpose of implementing the Rule 5 Draft is to keep teams from stashing talent in the minors. Of course, there are several rules to keep in mind.
If a player is not on the 40-man roster and they have a certain amount of experience, they can be selected. The professional experience is key.
For players who signed at 18 or younger, they need five years under their belt to be eligible for selection. If a player signs at 19 or older, it takes just four years to susceptible.
A key component to this whole process is that any player taken must remain at the MLB level for the whole season following their selection. If a team wants to remove their draftee from the 25-man roster, they must put him on waivers. If the player clears waivers he will be offered back to his old team for $50,000. Should the old team not want the player, he can be outrighted to the minors.
Another caveat is that the player needs to procure 90 active days on the roster in order to avoid the same rules applying the following year.
As seen in the case of Keller, Rule 5 Draft selections can be traded. However, that does not lift any of the restrictions on the player.
There are several talented players this year to keep an eye on. For a full list of each team’s top prospects eligible this season, click here.
LHP Tyler Jay, Minnesota Twins
Tyler Jay rose to prominence as a dominant force at the back end of the University of Illinois bullpen. He proved enough to be taken sixth overall in the 2015 draft. He continued to work out of the bullpen in his first professional year, but was stretched out to start in years following. It is a long shot, but someone might take a chance on him in the Rule 5 Draft.
He is ranked 22nd among Twins prospects thanks largely to a plus fastball and an above average slider. Jay will also flash a curveball and changeup. It is likely that his ceiling at this point is going to be an anchor at the back of the bullpen.
Injuries have been an issue early on in Jay’s career. A strained neck in 2016 held him to only 83 innings on the year. He returned in 2017 only to throw 11 innings before the injuries held him out again.
Suffice it to say, Jay’s starting career is largely over. However, if he can find consistency with his slider, there is a reliable reliever in there somewhere. It seems the biggest roadblock in his development has been overcoming the mental battle following the injuries and just trusting himself again.
There is use for a lefty throwing in the mid 90’s with a decent slider. As stated in his MLB Pipeline profile he will likely turn into a two pitch reliever. At 24 there is still some time for Jay to find himself again. Maybe a change of scenery could help.
It is not any teams top priority to take a chance on an injury prone pitcher. A team would have really needed to see something in the minors or in his Arizona Fall League tenure.
All that said, it is unlikely that a team takes a chance on Jay. He could be a diamond in the rough, but the rough is just a little too thick at this point. Expect him to find his potential in a Twins uniform.
2B Max Schrock, St. Louis Cardinals
It was a storied move when the Cardinals dealt Stephen Piscotty to Oakland to be closer to his ailing mother. Max Schrock was one of the two players sent to St. Louis in return. The infielder is not too far away from contributing at the MLB level. Exactly the kind of player teams might want to take in the Rule 5 Draft.
If a team were to select him, they would be the fourth organization he had played for. Washington took Schrock in the 13th round back in 2015. He was then dealt to Oakland and subsequently St. Louis.
After a brief stint among the top 10 prospects in the Cardinals organization, Schrock now sits at number 11. He has an above average contact tool from the left side of the plate. That pairs with 50 grade run and fielding to be an overall decent second baseman. He does have a weak arm, which will limit him to second base duty. All that said, he is widely regarded as a future every day option.
Schrock’s ability to make contact is what led to his poor showing in 2018. He hit .249 with a .260 BABIP and 63 wRC+. Those are not ideal numbers for his first try at the Triple A level. It might seem counter intuitive, but because he can make contact so well, he was making weak contact at pitches moving more than he had seen in levels past.
He struck out at a clip of 7.9 percent. The flip side of that is a 5.3 percent walk rate. If a team can work with him to refine his pitch selection, they can get a productive Shrock and an everyday answer at second base.
If a team believes in Schrock’s contact tool, there is no reason he would survive the draft. Although there is more buzz about Cardinal’s pitcher Junior Fernandez entering this years Rule 5 draft.
RHP Art Warren, Seattle Mariners
Another product of the 2015 draft, Art Warren, 25, was selected in the 23rd round. He has become a solid reliever for the same reason teams would be interested in him in the Rule 5 Draft: A plus fastball. It is not only a high velocity pitch, it has great life to it.
Early in his career Warren found plenty of success as a rotation arm. As time went on, it became clear that he is another destined reliever. But he has a ton of upside because of that 70 grade fastball. He adds a slightly above average slider and an average curveball. He has started in the past, but that turns his upper 90’s heater into a lower 90’s one.
In 2018 he posted a sub two ERA out of the bullpen playing in Double A. The disclaimer there is that shoulder soreness in his throwing arm limited him to only 15.2 innings. If it is any consolation, Warren struck out 22 batters in that limited time.
A healthy Warren can contribute right now at the MLB level. If you don’t believe me, see Jordan Hicks who jumped from A ball right to the Cardinals. If that is any indication the velocity doesn’t only help, it will allow him to be a decent contributor.
DISCLAIMER: Hicks still has about five MPH on Warren.
Once Warren begins facing top level hitters his weaknesses will be exposed and he will have to adjust, but that is every player ever. More so than any other tool, the ability to throw hard gives pitchers a chance to be worth a selection.
There is a pretty decent chance a team sees a pitcher topping out at 98 MPH and takes the chance on Warren. Look for it to be one of the teams earlier in the draft process that have the ability to develop a live arm.
SS Richie Martin, Oakland Athletics
Finding time with the Athletics is going to be an uphill battle for Richie Martin behind the likes of Franklin Barreto and Jorge Mateo. There is just a logjam and the 23 year old is finding himself on the wrong side of it. So the A’s are taking the chance of losing him in the Rule 5 Draft.
Don’t let that deter you from the talent Martin possesses. He was regarded as the best defensive shortstop in the 2015 draft, which helped him become 20th overall selection. It is that plus glove and arm that has helped him become the 12th ranked prospect in the A’s organization.
Shortly after being drafted, Martin went under the knife to repair a torn meniscus. Since then, he has struggled to find offensive consistency. However, in 2018 he hit .300 at the Double A level in 118 games.
His hitting ability is still below average across the board. His contact is graded at 45, and his power at 30. Martin his 29 doubles, eight triples, and six homers last season. It is worth noting that he struck out only 86 times in just over 450 at bats.
There is no reason to count his bat out just yet, but teams would be drafting a solid defensive option. He has a really good feel for the shortstop position, and a good first step allows him to have great range.
Martin played 179 innings at second base in 2018 and that is the only versatility he has shown defensively. With his defensive prowess there is no reason he could not comfortably move around the infield, but he will always be best at short.
The good thing about Martin is that a team can keep him as a defensive option off the bench for a season and he can contribute that way. It would be a stretch to expect anything from him with the bat, but that doesn’t mean he won’t have his moments.
1B Jake Gatewood, Milwaukee Brewers
The biggest downside of Jake Gatewood as a Rule 5 Draft selection is the lead of every story recently, he tore his ACL in July. He is going to miss the bulk of the 2019 season, but could still be selected if a team wants to stash him.
Gatewood is the Brewers 10th ranked prospect largely due to his raw power. He signed out of high school after being a Competitive Balance Round A pick. His strikeout numbers were worrisome. They improved a little due to new contact lenses.
More from Call to the Pen
- Philadelphia Phillies, ready for a stretch run, bomb St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies: The 4 players on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
- Boston Red Sox fans should be upset over Mookie Betts’ comment
- Analyzing the Boston Red Sox trade for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen
- 2023 MLB postseason likely to have a strange look without Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals
In 94 games at the Double A level Gatewood hit 19 homers and posted a wRC+ of 112. The strikeout rate was still up near 30 percent.
To go along with his above average power, Gatewood has a plus arm. That is to be expected from a former high school shortstop. Since that time, the Brewer prospect has struggled to find a defensive home.
At the outset of his career, he was a shortstop. Since then he has moved to third and over to first. Gatewood as even dabbled in the outfield. It seems that his long term home is going to be at first, however.
It is going to be important for Gatewood to figure out how to make good contact if he is going to tap into his raw power at the major league level. Especially if his strikeout numbers do not improve.
If a team decides to take a chance on Gatewood they will have to stash him on the DL. However, if he does not reach 90 active days then he will just be under the same restrictions the following year.
Next. Best curveballs of 2018. dark
The ability to select him in the Rule 5 Draft and stash him on the DL will make him an attractive option for any team that might want to take a chance on him, because they will not have to lose a roster spot for much of the season to hold onto Gatewood.