MLB Winter Meetings: Best Available Free Agent by Position
With the 2018 MLB Winter Meetings set to kick off this week (Dec. 9-13), the already piping hot stove will start to be reduced to ashes, things will get so hot. In preparation for the blaze, we have decided to list the best available free agent by position.
Beginning on Sunday, December 9th, in Las Vegas, Nevada, baseball executives and staff, media, exhibitors and job seekers from around the world will converge to network with peers at the MLB Winter Meetings. Which free agent will be the headliner of the week?
In the past, this has been the place where all the big moves happened. For example, in 2014 Jon Lester decided to forego another stint with the Red Sox in order to reunite with Theo Epstein and the Cubs. Before that, in 2011 Albert Pujols agreed to one of the biggest deals in history, signing a 10-year, $240MM contract with the Los Angeles Angels.
And who could forget the 2000 Winter Meetings? That year, Manny Ramirez and Alex Rodriguez both signed monster deals. Ramirez agreed to an 8-year $160MM deal with the Boston Red Sox, and Alex Rodriguez agreed to a record-breaking 10-year $252MM deal with the Texas Rangers.
This year, the MLB Winter Meetings are expected to break news once again. Especially given that two superstars in their own right, Manny Machado and Bryce Harper remain unsigned.
In honor of this highly anticipated event, we have put together a list of the best available free agents by position.
Let’s begin with the outfield.
LF – MICHAEL
BRANTLEY
There are plenty of outfielders available on this market. These Winter Meetings look for the following outfielders to sign contracts.
First, there’s Michael Brantley. Brantley was first called up by the Cleveland Indians in 2009. While he only played 28 games that season, Brantley showed promise as a hitter. That year, Brantley hit .313 with a .348 OBP.
From then on, Michael Brantley would spend time in the majors every season, earning the job as a starter at the age of 24 in 2011. His main attributes as a player are his ability to get on base and hit for extra bases. Despite a few injury-rattled seasons, Brantley has ranked in the top 20 in 2B 4x and H 3x. He’s ranked Top Five in BA 3x in his career.
The three-time All-Star finished third in the MVP voting in 2014. That season, Brantley hit .327 with a .358 OBP and .506 SLG.
Brantley, who will turn 32 early in the 2019 season, won’t command as much as other outfielders. He will, however, require at least 3-4 years in the $18MM per year range.
CF – A.J.
POLLOCK
A.J. Pollock might not be as flashy with his glove as George Springer or have as strong an arm as Aaron Hicks. He may not be as good a hitter as Mike Trout or an OBP machine like Brandon Nimmo. Pollock is, however, not only the best available free agent at CF, he’s absolutely one of the best CF in the game.
The 2015 Gold Glove winner saved 6 runs last season, which is good enough to rank 5th in MLB in 2018. Pollock averages around 7 DRS each season, maxing out at 15 in 2015. That season, Pollock was selected to his first ever All-Star Game.
Defense isn’t Pollock’s only major attribute as a player, he’s also a very good hitter. For his career, A.J. Pollock averages a .281 BA / .338 OBP / .467 SLG. At 6’1”, the Connecticut native can surprise you with his ability to hit for power. Since being called up in 2012, Pollock has averaged 35+ extra base-hits per season.
Pollock will turn 32 next season, and shouldn’t command Bryce Harper money and years. Instead, expect Pollock to receive 3-4 years at the $12MM per year range.
RF – BRYCE HARPER
At the ripe age of 26, Bryce Harper has yet to enter the prime of his career. Still, he has managed six All Star appearances in seven seasons, an MVP award , and a Silver Slugger.
One of, if not THE preeminent star in baseball, Harper has had an inconsistent first seven years. Within that time span, he’s shown glimpses of greatness entwined with flashes of mediocrity. However, he remains the best available outfielder in 2018 and will probably receive a record-breaking contract not so much because of what he’s done, but because of what he promises to do.
Harp was called up to the Nationals at the age of 19. In the seven years that followed, Bryce has shown an ability to be a great 5-tool player. He can hit for average, has decent speed, hits for power, is a good fielder, and flares a decent arm for an outfielder.
In order to obtain the star outfielder, teams are going to have to be willing to spend “stupid” money, to quote Phillies owner John S. Middleton. We’re talking somewhere in the $35MM per year range for at least 7-years.
Will a team emerge as a potential suitor these Winter Meetings? Only time will tell.
The good news is, Bryce will be 33 when the 7-year deal expires. Just enough time for another mega-contract. I’m sweating just thinking about it.
1B – JUSTIN BOUR
Now let’s take a look at what I like to call the “basemen,” as in 1B, 2B, and 3B. These Winter Meetings look for the following “basemen) to sign contracts.
Justin Bour has had somewhat of a quiet career to this point. In seven seasons with the Miami Marlins and Philadelphia Phillies, Bour became a household name when he participated in the 2017 Home Run Derby, which included a quick snack break in which Giancarlo Stanton fed him doughnuts. True story.
There is no question that Justin Bour is best known for his ability to hit for power. But, would you be surprised if I told you that he has never hit 30 or more home runs in a season? It’s true. Bour can best be described as an old school power hitter. It seems like he’s always on the highlight reel, but his stat sheet says otherwise.
The problem is that Bour has served several stints on the disabled list in his career, limiting his amount of playing time. In fact, the most he’s ever played was in 2018 when he suited up for 141 games. Before that, he averaged less than 100 games played per season.
There is no question, however, that Bour has the best potential of any available free agent first baseman. The fact that he was relatively healthy last season should help a team feel encouraged enough to offer Bour a 3-year deal worth somewhere in the $10MM per year range at the most.
2B – DANIEL MURPHY
In 2018, Daniel Murphy’s season was limited due to injury. He spent a good part of the first half of the year on the DL recovering from right knee surgery. When he returned, however, Murph showed no signs of wear and tear.
In 91 games in 2018, Daniel Murphy still managed to get 98 H and hit for a .299 BA. That’s Murphy’s M.O., he’s a professional hitter who may not exceed 25 HR in a single season, but will consistently be at the top of the list for 2B and H.
In fact, since being called up by the Mets in 2008, Daniel Murphy has been in the top 12 in 2B 7x, he’s ranked in the top 10 in H 4x, and top 20 in BA 4x. And despite the fact that he’ll turn 34 at the start of the 2019 season, Murphy has shown that he can play good defense at all IF positions, making him an attractive option for any team.
Expect Murphy to receive a 3-year deal worth somewhere in the range of $15MM per year.
3B – MIKE MOUSTAKAS
After Josh Donaldson signed with the Atlanta Braves in November, Mike “Moose” Moustakas skyrocketed to the top of the list of available free agent 3B.
A 2x All Star, Mike Moustakas came from the same Kansas City Royals system that brought us guys like Eric Hosmer and Salvador Perez. Moustakas has shown the ability to hit for average and to hit for power, never in the same season, however.
In 2017, he hit 38 HR and was selected to his second All Star game. After becoming a free agent later that offseason, “Moose” only manage to get a 1-year $5.5MM contract. It seems in the age of analytics, teams are afraid to offer a guy like Moustakas, who averages a .307 OBP for his career, a long term big money contract.
I expect this offseason to be the same for “Moose.” At most, he’ll get three years. He won’t, however, break $10MM per year.
SS – MANNY MACHADO
These Winter Meetings, expect Manny Machado to walk away with a team. At the very least, the 2018 Baseball Winter Meetings will give us a strong indication of who will be willing to spend the most on the IF.
Manny Machado did himself no favors during the 2018 postseason. Entering the 2018 season, many teams worked hard to stay below the luxury threshold in order to sign a guy like Machado. Machado’s behavior in the postseason, however, could potentially have cost him one of the richest contracts in baseball history.
The dude will still get paid, though. Why? Because, alongside Bryce Harper, Manny Machado is arguably THE best player available on the market.
At the young age of 26, Manny Machado has managed to win two Gold Glove awards and was selected to the All Star game 4x. Manny is a consistent 30+ HR hitter who remained competitive in one of the toughest divisions in baseball, the AL East.
The Yankees have already said they won’t pay asking price for Machado, according to Jon Heyman. The Phillies and the White Sox might, though. Either way, I expect Bryce Harper to get the biggest deal this offseason. Machado will be a close 2nd.
C – WILSON RAMOS
At 31 years of age, Wilson Ramos has already enjoyed an illustrious MLB career. In 2018, Ramos solidified himself as one of the top catchers in baseball.
Sure the market is hot for J.T. Realmuto. The guys is a beast at the position, but did you know that Ramos ranks first among all catchers in SLG (.487) and wRC+ (131) in MLB?
In 2nd place? The aforementioned Realmuto.
The 2x All Star won a Silver Slugger award in 2016. While he is not great at his position defensively he does rank ahead of guys like Realmuto (again) in defensive runs saved (DRS), and won’t hurt your team defensively.
For these reasons, Ramos will receive a multi-year deal no greater than 3-years at $10MM per.
DH – NELSON CRUZ
In each of the last 10 seasons, Nelson Cruz has been one of the most consistent hitters in MLB. In that time span, Cruz has hit 30+ HR 6x (one of those times he hit 29), has amassed 90+ RBI 6x, and has slugged .500 or better 9x.
The 6x All Star has spent the last four seasons with the Seattle Mariners, getting better with age, like a fine glass of wine. In that time span, Cruz ranks 2nd in SLG (.546) and 2nd in wRC+ (147); he ranks first in MLB in HR with 163.
You couldn’t ask more of a guy whose sole job is to hit. Nelson Cruz will turn 39 next season and teams will be hesitant to offer a guy his age a long term deal. Expect Cruz to get a 2-year deal with incentives and options at over $15 million per year.
SP – DALLAS KEUCHEL
The free agent starting pitcher market has already gained steam with Patrick Corbin signing with the Washington Nationals. Expect the following pitchers to gain heavy interest these Winter Meetings.
Dallas Keuchel is one of baseball’s most underrated pitchers. The former Cy Young award winner often pitches to a sub-3 ERA, while striking out over 7 H/9 for his career.
Sure, Keuchel doesn’t throw 100 and has experience some injuries over the last few seasons. He does feature a solid repertoire of six pitches, heavily relying on the sinker ball. Because he is a low ball pitcher, Keuchel led MLB in GB% (53.7). This could be attractive to teams considering that we are in the midst of the launch angle revolution and ball parks are increasingly becoming bang boxes.
Patrick Corbin had one solid season and managed to get 6 years at $140MM. Keuchel should in theory get something similar. However, given that Keuchel will be 31 at the start of 2019, his stuff should start to decline and teams will be hesitant to give up so much money. Expect Keuchel to get five years at less than $20MM per year on average.
RP – David Robertson
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This was the toughest position considering that there is another RP on the market who might command more money. I’m talking about
.
and Adam Ottavino are interchangeable as far as whom the best available RP is in the free agent market. I went with Robertson, however, because he has been more consistent throughout his career than Ottavino has.
In 11 big league seasons, Robertson averages a 2.88 ERA, 2.81 FIP, and 1.145 WHIP. While he did spend time as a closer for the Yankees and the White Sox, Robertson is somewhat of a modern day RP in that he is flexible and will come in at any point in the game, no questions asked.
The problem with with Robertson, however, is his age. He will turn 34 next season, and there aren’t many RP who are successful beyond age 35. Robertson could command 3-years at around $13MM per year. Ottavino, who is younger and has shown some promise, could get 3-years at $15MM.
Next. Reds top 10 prospects. dark
Will 2018 be a repeat of the 2000 MLB Winter Meetings, where ManRam and A-Rod received massive deals?
What moves do you expect to see these MLB Winter Meetings?