Is Troy Tulowitzki the Nomar Garciaparra of our time?

Delving into the recent past in baseball history brings up an interesting comparison to Troy Tulowitzki.

Troy Tulowitzki and Nomar Garciaparra had similar careers with very high peak seasons mixed with injury-filled seasons.

While baseball fans buzzed about rumors of a three-way trade involving the New York Mets, New York Yankees and Miami Marlins, the Toronto Blue Jays surprisingly released shortstop Troy Tulowitzki on the third day of the winter meetings in Las Vegas. It was surprising mainly because Tulowitzki still has two years and $38 million left on his contract with the Blue Jays. Tulowitzki is now free to sign with any team for the major league minimum, which is $555,000.

One of the early contenders for Tulowitzki’s services are the Oakland A’s. Susan Slusser tweeted that Tulowitzki’s agent, Paul Cohen, said Tulo “would love to play in the Bay Area, is willing to change positions and would like to play for a winning team.” Tulowitzki was born in Santa Clara, California, played high school ball in Sunnyvale and college ball at California State University Long Beach.

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It wasn’t that long ago that Tulowitzki was an above average player. In 2016, he was about league average as a hitter (.254/.318/.443, 104 wRC+), but rated well enough on defense to be worth 3.4 Wins Above Replacement (per Baseball-Reference). This was his first full year with the Blue Jays after coming over from the Colorado Rockies in a trade during the 2015 season.

In 2017, Tulowitzki struggled with hamstring, groin and ankle injuries that limited him to 66 games. He was well below average with the bat and the injuries affected his defense. In late July, he suffered what was initially diagnosed as a sprained ankle, but was later revealed to include ligament damage and missed the rest of the season. He was essentially a replacement-level player that year.

Tulowitzki missed all of last season with bilateral heel bone spurs that required surgery in April. He resumed baseball-related activities in late May, but was never healthy enough to play in a game.  The Blue Jays future at shortstop and third base figure to be top prospects Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., so they decided to eat Tulowitzki’s contract and let him play elsewhere.

It remains to be seen where Tulowitzki will play next season. Along with the A’s, mentioned above, the Seattle Mariners could use a veteran shortstop in case recently-acquired J.P. Crawford isn’t ready for full time play. The Mariners traded shortstop Jean Segura to the Phillies a week ago. The Detroit Tigers are another option since they lost Jose Iglesias to free agency.

As for Tulowitzki’s future on the field, it’s interesting to note that his career has resembled another injury-prone shortstop from the recent past, Nomar Garciaparra. Both Tulowitzki and Garciaparra had brief stints in the major leagues in their first seasons. Tulowitzki played 25 games as a 21-year-old in 2006. Garciaparra played 24 games as a 22-year-old in 1996.

After those brief “cups of coffee,” both players quickly became among the best shortstops in the game. In his second season, Tulowitzki was worth 6.8 WAR as a 22-year-old in 2007. He finished second in NL Rookie of the Year voting. In his second season, Garciaparra was worth 6.6 WAR as a 23-year-old in 1997 and won the AL Rookie of the Year Award.

Over the next seven years of their respective careers, Tulowitzki had five all-star caliber seasons (between 5 and 7 WAR) and Garciaparra had six such seasons. Both made five all-star teams during their respective peaks (Garciaparra added a sixth all-star appearances when he was 32). Tulowitzki finished in the top 10 in MVP voting three times. Garciaparra finished in the top 10 in MVP voting five times.

The similarities continue with each player’s age-27 season. Right in the middle of his peak, when he was 27 years old, Tulowitzki was limited to 47 games because of injuries. In 2001, also at the age of 27, Garciaparra, was limited to 21 games because of injuries. They both bounced back to have very good seasons at age 28 and 29, then started their declines.

Here are their respective totals per 162 games played:

162 G, 681 PA, 175 H,    96 R, 28 HR,   98 RBI, .290/.361/.495—Tulowitzki

162 G, 691 PA, 197 H, 105 R, 26 HR, 106 RBI, .313/.361/.521—Garciaparra

Overall, Tulowitzki has 44.1 WAR in 12 seasons and Garciaparra had 44.2 WAR in 14 seasons. Garciaparra was a better hitter (124 wRC+ versus 119 for Tulowitzki), but Tulowitzki was a better fielder. They aren’t perfect comps, but there are some similarities.

As we wait to see what team will take a chance on Tulo, it’s worth mentioning that Tulowitzki’s last above average season (so far) was at the age of 31. Garciaparra’s last above average season was at the age of 32. He was below replacement-level over his final three seasons in the big leagues. We’ll have to see if Troy Tulowitzki can avoid that fate.