Chicago Cubs conspicuous by their silence in Winter Meetings
By Bill Felber
The Chicago Cubs are hamstrung by their own payroll, much of it under-performing, entering 2019
The Chicago Cubs have been conspicuous by their silence at this year’s Winter Meetings.
This is a sharp and obvious change from Theo Epstein’s normal operating procedure. During last year’s meetings, Epstein’s front office signed pitcher Tyler Chatwood for $38 million over three years. (In February they added Yu Darvish). The previous year as defending champions they acquired closer Wade Davis. In December of 2015 they signed Jason Heyward to an eight season, $184 million deal. One year earlier, it was Jon Lester on a seven-year, $169 million deal.
This year…crickets. Stereo crickets. Why?
There are two possible explanations for the Cubs’ winter hibernation, and both are problematic for the team’s future.
The first is money. The Cubs’ payroll was a record $182 million in 2018. With no roster adjustments whatsoever, they’re projected to push and possibly exceed the $207 million competitive balance tax boundary.
That happenstance will be determined prior to or during arbitration hearings, which the Cubs enter with substantial potential liabilities. Star third baseman Kris Bryant, shortstop Addison Russell and starting pitcher Kyle Hendricks are all Arb. 2s; combined they create up to a $28 million exposure.
There are valid reasons why all three might have to sign for less. Bryant plowed through an injury-riddled, sub-par 2018 season, Russell will begin the season on suspension for off-field domestic issues, and Hendricks qualifies as steady but not spectacular. Even so, the cumulative floor won’t be much lower, if lower at all, than $25 million.
That cost is only exacerbated by the team’s Arb. 1s: MVP runner-up Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber, Carl Edwards and Mike Montgomery. Collectively they project to cost another $14 million, more if the Cubs try to lock up Baez and/or Schwarber long-term.
The second explanation is performance-related. A half dozen of the Cubs – most of them younger ones with less established track records– suffered though sub-par seasons in 2018. The question Cubs management must address is: Did those sub-par performances represent an anomaly that will self-correct next season? Or has the Cubs front office over-estimated the true abilities of those players?
Due to their financial constraints, Cubs management is forced to bet on the former. If they’re right, there’s little reason to make many moves this winter; just wait until those under-performing 2018 players revert to a better norm next spring.
But if that bet is wrong – if they’ve actually mis-gauged their roster’s abilities – then in an improving NL Central they could be headed for a large fall in 2019.
The growth, or lack of same, of six players will determine whether the front office is right or wrong. Here’s a look at the six: