Chicago Cubs conspicuous by their silence in Winter Meetings
By Bill Felber
Ian Happ, outfield. Given a chance to establish himself as a factor in the Cubs lineup in 2018, Happ regressed. A .253 hitter with 24 homers and 68 RBIs the previous season, he hit nine fewer homers, drove in 24 fewer runs and produced 1.3 fewer games of WAR in 50 more plate appearances in 2018.
As a result, he enters 2018 without a defined role. Albert Almora is a better defender, and had better offensive numbers in center field. Kyle Schwarber and Jason Heyward have priority in left and right. Second base, where Happ has spent time in 2017 and 2018, remains a possibility, but Zobrist will get first call there during Russell’s time in the penalty box.
Still, assuming that Happ gets at least his 450 plate appearances in 2019, the Cubs need him to demonstrate that he’s the 2017 threat, not the 2018 milquetoast. The difference between the two amounts to about a game and a half in the standings.
Tyler Chatwood, pitcher. With the Rockies in 2016 and 2017, Chatwood averaged 150 innings with ERAs in the low 4.00s and an ERA plus in around 117. In other words, he was a better-than- average major league pitcher.
In 2018, in his first year with Chicago, Chatwood walked 95 batters in 104 innings, and saw his WHIP rise from 1.4 to 1.8. Not surprisingly, he fell entirely out of favor by early August, his ERA+ plummeting into the low 80s. He was literally a replacement-level pitcher, and given his contract a $12.5 million one.
If Chatwood shrugs off 2018 and returns to his prior form, he still won’t be more than a decent rotation option … but even that would be a big improvement. If not, he’ll expose an ongoing rotation hole. To the Cubs, the difference is likely to amount to two games over the course of the season.
Yu Darvish, pitcher. During his previous two seasons, Darvish had produced 287 innings with ERAs in the 3.70 range and ERA+ numbers averaging about 117. After being signed to a $126 million deal, Darvish muddled though eight starts before retiring with arm injuries, his ERA+ sitting at 87.
Obviously the Cubs need both quality and quantity from a $20 million per year starter. Darvish is entering his 30s, so it may be unfair to ask him to replicate his 2016 and 2017 stats, especially coming of those arm problems.
But given what the Cubs are paying, they’re locked into expecting at minimum a 2.0 or 2.5 WAR season.
The bottom line: If the half dozen players itemized above deliver according to expectations — and assuming, of course, that the rest of the roster performs normally — the Cubs could expect to be close to a dozen game improvement. That level of step-up would make them serious World Series contenders.
If, however, they don’t – and especially if they collectively demonstrate that 2018 was not a fluke – then the Cubs could finding themselves reverting dangerously close to .500 in 2019.
More than perhaps any other team in baseball, the Cubs are forced by their financial constraints to the sidelines this winter. They must be hopeful that their core develops as they project, but they are limited in their options to respond if that under-performing core doesn’t.