MLB Free Agency: The highs and lows of long-term deals
By Bill Felber
7. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals, 2014-2018, +4.0
When the Nationals re-upped Zimmerman for six seasons at $100 million, he was a 30-year-old with a record as a consistent and sometimes spectacular performer. Due to chronic arm problems, however, he was also transitioning from a third baseman into a less defensively demanding role at first base.
Under his new deal, Zimmerman’s value has declined gradually but steadily. During his five pre-deal seasons, he had averaged 4.6 WAR; since then he’s averaged +0.8 WAR. The physical problems, which have limited him to an average of 100 games per season, have been one factor. His long ball production has fallen from about 30 per season to about 17.
Production declines are something teams have learned (or should have learned) to expect as players move through their 30s. In other words, the Nats either knew or should have known they wouldn’t receive value for their investment in Zimmerman.
That being so, the proper way to view his signing is as a costly public relations gesture – keeping the long-term local hero in place. When healthy, Zimmerman remains a usable piece, his OPS+ usually running in about the 110 to 115 range. That’s decent for a 33-year-old, although it is a long way from being a $100 million player.