MLB Free Agency: The highs and lows of long-term deals

Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are both seeking lengthy contracts in MLB free agency; what’s the likelihood that those deals will make long-term sense?

Overlaying the winter meetings is an assumption that either Bryce Harper or Manny Machado – or both – will sign a long-term deal during their time in MLB free agency. Their agents have talked in terms of up to 10 years at packages exceeding record levels.

Already one such deal has been finalized. The Washington Nationals agreed to terms with left-hander Patrick Corbin on a six-year, $140 million package. The Nationals were said to have won out when neither the Yankees or Phillies would move beyond five years.

Whether due to performance fluctuations or health, long-term contracts are fraught with peril. Since 2000, more than 100 contracts beyond five years in duration and $50 million in value have been agreed to. That provides a strong data base on which to judge the wisdom of those long-term deals.

Here are some of the most salient observations from that data base.

• Measured by WAR, the average first-year production of players signing such contracts has been +3.7. That production declines in direct linear fashion through subsequent seasons: to 3.6 in year two, then to 3.3, 2.9, 2.1 and 1.4 by year six.
• It is possible, although not likely, for such deals to pay off big for the signing team. In eight percent of the cases, the signing player averaged at least +5 WAR for the deal’s duration. That happened with Miguel Cabrera’s first (2008-15) long-term deal with the Tigers, it happened with Albert Pujols’ 2004 deal with the Cardinals, and it happened most recently with Mike Trout’s ongoing 2015 contract with the Angels.
• In one of every five contracts, the signing player averaged better than +4 WAR, making that player a plausible All Star.
• On the other hand, in 41 percent of cases the signing player averaged less than 2 WAR per season. For context, the average WAR for all players in 2018 was about +0.8.
• In only 17 instances did a player’s performance improve from year 1 to year 4. In only nine cases did that player’s value increase by more than two points of WAR.
• By contrast, the performance of two dozen players signing long-term, $50 million-plus deals declined by more than two WAR from year one to year four.

Here’s a recap of the 10 worst long-term, plus-$50 million contracts signed since 2005 as measured by the sum total of WAR generated for the life of the contract. The heading shows the player, team(s) involved, length and cost of the contract, and the total WAR  generated during that contract.

T-10. Vernon Wells, Toronto Blue Jays, Los Angeles Angels, New York Yankees, 2008-14,+6.7

The Blue Jays gave Wells a seven-year, $126 million extension following the 2006 season. At the time, the move could be viewed as making sense; Wells was in his mid 20s, and he was he was a two-time All Star coming off a season in which he had hit .303 with 32 homers and 106 RBIs. Most significantly, entering his free agent season, it solidified his status with the club.

The newly secured Wells fought through a series of mediocre seasons in Toronto, then in January of 2011 the Jays sent him to the Angels in exchange for catcher Mike Napoli and outfielder-first baseman Juan Rivera. In Anaheim, Wells struggled even more, batting .218 and .230 before the Angels shipped him off to New York for a pair of minor leaguers prior to the 2013 season.

In New York, Wells batted .233 with just 11 home runs. So the Yankees released him following the 2013 season even though they and the Angels together still owed him $21 million.

Collectively, Wells was paid $45 million from the Jays, $67.1 million from the Angels and $13.9 million from the Yankees. In return for that, he batted .255 with a .302 on base average.

T-10. Prince Fielder, Detroit Tigers, Texas Rangers 2012-16, +6.7

Fielder had been a star in Milwaukee, although he might have been equally well known as the son of former Tiger star Cecil Fielder. In his free agent season, he hit 38 homers with 120 RBIs and batted .299. So when he hit the open market, the Tigers offered him $214 million spread across nine seasons.

That contract began well. In 2012, Fielder hit 30 homers, drove in 108 runs and batted .313 for his new team. His numbers declined some in 2015, but he remained a productive force, generating a 122 OPS+.

That winter the Tigers, needing to open up first base for Miguel Cabrera, traded Fielder to the Rangers, where a chronic neck problem ended his season in June. Fielder underwent surgery that sidelined him for the remainder of the season. He rebounded to hit .305 in 2015, but the neck issues never really went away.  In more than 300 2016 plate appearances, he managed just a .212 average with 8 home runs.

In mid-season 2016 a physical exam revealed herniated discs in the neck that forced Fielder to announce his retirement. In the first season of his mega deal, Fielder had generated a 4.7 WAR; for the remainder of the deal, he averaged just one-half WAR.

T-8. Jason Heyward, Chicago Cubs, 2016-2018, +5.2

This one’s totally arguable. The Cubs, after all, won the World Series the year they signed Heyward, and by all accounts he played a central role in that outcome…if only via an especially inspiring pep talk during a seventh game rain delay that all present agreed rallied his team.

On the field, Heyward’s contributions since signing that eight-year, $184 million contract have been less profound. In none of his first three seasons with the Cubs has his WAR exceeded +2.3, making him a competent regular but hardly a centerpiece.

His batting averages have improved steadily in Chicago, but that more reflects the low bar set by his initial .230 season. That’s 30 percentage points below his career average; he’s since produced average numbers.

So the real question about the Heyward contract is whether a career .265 hitter with average power and on base numbers was ever worth $184 million in the first place. By most measures, his best season was his first, when he hit .277 with 18 home runs, figures that generated a 131 OPS+.

Otherwise, the Cubs are getting almost exactly what they should have expected; they’re simply paying a premium price for it. On the other hand, they did win that World Series…and Heyward did play a key role. So even if he was paid $188 million merely for his oratorical skills, Cubs fans may see that as money well spent.

T-8. Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Diego Padres, Atlanta Braves, Los Angeles Dodgers, 2012-2018, +5.2

Like a fruitcake, Kemp’s 8 year, $160 million contract has been passed around the National League almost annually until it wound up back where it started.

The Dodgers signed Kemp to that deal following a 2011 season in which he batted .324 and led the National League in both home runs (39) and RBIs (126). A few seasons into the deal, however, even the Dodgers  decided the $21 million they owed him annually didn’t justify Kemp’s production. So in December of 2014 they sent him to San Diego in a five-player deal that returned Yasmani Grandal.

The deal was part of new GM A.J. Preller’s plan to reinvigorate the Padres. When it didn’t work Kemp went on the market again, this time to the Atlanta Braves in exchange for highly touted prospect Hector Olivera.  With the Braves, Kemp batted .280 in 2016 and .276 in 2017, but averaged only 15 home runs and 51 RBIs a season. With the Braves out of contention and Kemp’s salary again constituting a millstone, they shipped him back to the Dodgers for four players.

In LA, Kemp batted a respectable .290 in 506 plate appearances as the Dodgers won the National League pennant.

It’s not that Kemp was a bad player. He had only one truly sub-par season, that coming with the Braves in 2017 when he generated a -1.3 WAR. The problem was that he has never come especially close to justifying his $21.5 million annual salary. In the five seasons prior to signing that big deal, Kemp’s average OPS+ for the Dodgers was 126. Since signing that deal, his average OPS+ has been 119.1.

7. Ryan Zimmerman, Washington Nationals, 2014-2018, +4.0

When the Nationals re-upped Zimmerman for six seasons at $100 million, he was a 30-year-old with a record as a consistent and sometimes spectacular performer. Due to chronic arm problems, however, he was also transitioning from a third baseman into a less defensively demanding role at first base.

Under his new deal, Zimmerman’s value has declined gradually but steadily. During his five pre-deal seasons, he had averaged 4.6 WAR; since then he’s averaged +0.8 WAR. The physical problems, which have limited him to an average of 100 games per season, have been one factor. His long ball production has fallen from about 30 per season to about 17.

Production declines are something teams have learned (or should have learned) to expect as players move through their 30s. In other words, the Nats either knew or should have known they wouldn’t receive value for their investment in Zimmerman.

That being so, the proper way to view his signing is as a costly public relations gesture – keeping the long-term local hero in place. When healthy, Zimmerman remains a usable piece, his OPS+ usually running in about the 110 to 115 range. That’s decent for a 33-year-old, although it is a long way from being a $100 million player.

5. Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants, 2012-2017, +2.7

A lifetime Giant, Cain was coming off three straight double figure win seasons when the Giants locked him up prior to the 2012 season. Consistently delivering 220 innings of work, he twice posted ERAs below 3.00, leading the league in games started in 2008.

The Giants, of course, were setting up for what would be a second World Series championship in three seasons, and Cain proved to be a large part of that. He went 16-5 in 2010, making 32 starts with a 2.79 ERA. His 126 ERA+ essentially replicated his average ERAs since 2007. He made his third All Star team.

Then a pitcher’s reality set in. Following an indifferent 2013, Cain felt the impact of bone chips that necessitated surgery in 2014. He pitched only 15 games that season, only 11 in 2015, and only 17 in 2016.

His ERA rose as his workload fell, to 4.00 in 2013, then to 5.79 in 2015. Elbow surgery failed to alleviate the pain, and following an ineffectual 2017 season Cain retired.

In sum, the Giants paid $127.5 million for one effective season. In 2012, Cain generated a +3.8 WAR; for the remainder of the deal, his WAR was -1.1, and he managed only one season above 0.0

4. Barry Zito, San Francisco Giants, 2007-2013, +2.4

A hero in Oakland as the ace of the A’s staff that took the team to four straight post-seasons and five in seven years, Zito was an obvious Giants target when he hit free agency. He had a Cy Young on his mantelpiece along with a 101-63 record and the game’s best curve ball.

Beyond that, Zito was not yet 30. So San Francisco signed him for seven seasons and $126 million, adding him to a seemingly imposing rotation that also featured Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain.

But Zito never mastered the cross-Bay transition. He went 11-13 in 2007, his ERA climbing to a personal high 4.53. Things only got worse. For his first five seasons, Zito never managed a winning record, his ERA often wandered above 5.00.

In 2011, foot injuries limited Zito to just 54 innings, compounding his lack of effectiveness with idleness.

Unlike many, Zito did enjoy a sliver of redemption. Without warning, in 2012, Zito found his old form. He went 15-8 in 32 starts as the Giants won the World Series, Zito winning his only start. Nonetheless, when his contract expired following the 2013 season, he was not re-signed. Zito made a brief re-appearance in Oakland in 2015 before retiring.

3. Chris Davis, Baltimore Orioles, 2016-2018, +0.4

Reputedly a particular favorite of Orioles owner Peter Angelos, Davis had come to the Orioles in a 2011 trade with the Rangers. In Baltimore, Davis hit 53 home runs in 2013 and 47 more in 2015, leading the league both years.

If Angelos had a soft spot for Davis, he expressed it in the most tangle way possible when the first baseman became a free agent following the 2015 season. Angelos offered seven years at $161 million, and Davis gleefully took it.

Since finalizing that deal, Davis’ performance decline has been dramatic. Never a high average hitter, he fell from .262 in 2015 to .221, then .215, then .168. His home run production also fell, from 47 to 38, then to 26, and finally last season to 16.

When the Orioles re-signed Davis, he was generating OPS+ scores in the 140 range. Since then, his OPS+ has fallen to 110, then 96, and then to 50.

He managed a +3.3 WAR in 2016, but by 2018 even his WAR had plummeted to -2.8. Not only was that the worst WAR in all of Major League Baseball, it was a full point worse than the next worst.

The Orioles’ problem wasn’t just that Davis had become a wretched player. It was that they still owed him $92 million through the 2022 season.

2. Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds, 2014-2018, -1.4

When Walt Jocketty signed Bailey for six seasons at $105 million, it was done with great fanfare, Bailey had gone only 11-12 in 2013 and he carried only a 49-45 career record, but both of those figures were seemed as more of a reflection of the team’s record than Bailey’s lack of talent.

In fact there was no question about his stuff. He pitched a no-hitter in 2012, then pitched another in 2013. The issue, as the Reds would in short order learn, was his health.

In 2014, Bailey made 23 starts, but chronic arm fatigue sidelined him in August with a 9-5 record. He returned in 2015, but was sidelined again in May and underwent Tommy John surgery to repair a torn UCL.  He came back in 2016, but made only six ineffective starts.

Another surgery, this time for bone chips, delayed the start of Bailey’s 2017 season until June. He did manage 18 starts, but again was ineffective, going 6-9 with a 6.43 ERA. In 2018, he was healthy, but suffered through a 1-14 season and another ERA above 6.00.

Bailey’s then, is the classic cautionary tale about giving long-term deals to pitchers. In the two seasons prior to signing that contract, he averaged 208 innings. Since then, he’s averaged just 75 innings per season, and they’ve been horrible innings.

1.       Yasmany Tomas, Arizona Diamondbacks, 2015-2017, -2.4

Tomas was a star of the Cuban major league when the Diamondbacks signed him to a six-year, $68.5 million contract. His signing followed by one year his performance with the Cuban National Team in the 2013 World Baseball Classic.

The D-Backs initially sent Tomas, who was only 24 at the time, to the minors, but only for a few weeks. Called up in April of 2015, he batted .273. But it was a relatively empty .273; he hit only nine home runs, drew just 17 walks and posted an 88 OPS+,  projecting him solidly among the bottom half of outfielders in terms of value.

Expected to be a full-time centerpiece of the D-Backs lineup in 2016, Tomas instead replicated his rookie year. The big improvement came in power; he managed 31 home runs, and that alone drove his OPS+ to a respectable 108. In 2017, though Tomas regressed to a .241 average and just eight homers.

His season was cut short by core surgery in August, but long before then the Diamondbacks had laid plans to work around his presence. He spent the entire 2018 season at Triple A Reno where his $13.5 million salary probably qualified him as the best-paid minor leaguer of all time.

Since Tomas remains under contract through 2020 – at a not coincidental price of $32.5 million – his return to the majors remains possible. For the present, however, the fact remains that in none of Tomas’ three seasons did he even approach replacement level production…much less the production one might expect of a $68.5 million hotshot.