MLB Free Agency: The highs and lows of long-term deals
By Bill Felber
5. Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants, 2012-2017, +2.7
A lifetime Giant, Cain was coming off three straight double figure win seasons when the Giants locked him up prior to the 2012 season. Consistently delivering 220 innings of work, he twice posted ERAs below 3.00, leading the league in games started in 2008.
The Giants, of course, were setting up for what would be a second World Series championship in three seasons, and Cain proved to be a large part of that. He went 16-5 in 2010, making 32 starts with a 2.79 ERA. His 126 ERA+ essentially replicated his average ERAs since 2007. He made his third All Star team.
Then a pitcher’s reality set in. Following an indifferent 2013, Cain felt the impact of bone chips that necessitated surgery in 2014. He pitched only 15 games that season, only 11 in 2015, and only 17 in 2016.
His ERA rose as his workload fell, to 4.00 in 2013, then to 5.79 in 2015. Elbow surgery failed to alleviate the pain, and following an ineffectual 2017 season Cain retired.
In sum, the Giants paid $127.5 million for one effective season. In 2012, Cain generated a +3.8 WAR; for the remainder of the deal, his WAR was -1.1, and he managed only one season above 0.0