San Diego Padres: A.J. Prellar and his many promising prospects

It is not secret that the San Diego Padres farm system is an embarrassment of riches. The only thing slowing them down during the Winter Meetings is how willing A.J. Prellar is to part with his potential stars.

First of all, Call to the Pen site expert Benjamin Chase did an excellent job outlining the San Diego Padres prospects. As can be seen in that article, there are a lot of good ones to hold on to. The farm system is, of course, headlined by Fernando Tatis Jr.

Tatis Jr. has recently become the topic of an interesting conversation when Prellar was quoted in an article on MLB.com saying “If someone wants to give us two Tatises for one Tatis, you’re gonna talk about it.”

That comment got me thinking, what would two Tatises even look like? It can be assured that not many teams could even offer it. And even if they could, no team actually would…unless that team is run by Jerry DiPoto, but that is a conversation of another time.

Not One, But Two

To get an understanding of what two Tatises would be, you would have to base it off of his ceiling. As the number two prospect in all of baseball, Tatis Jr. ceiling is almost out of sight. He has a plus hit tool, power tool, and a plus arm. MLB Pipeline lists his ceiling as a potential perennial MVP candidate.

So, what? Trout/Ohtani? Two Vladmir Guerrero Jrs? Maybe a three team trade that gets the Padres Juan Soto and Ronald Acuna. Obviously, these comments were made as a nice way to say ‘paws off my best prospect.’

With Tatis Jr. off the table, there should be other prospects in play. However, that does not seem to be the case. Even with a gluttony of pitching prospects at varying levels, there seems to be no budging.

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Pitchers, Pitchers Everywhere

Of the San Diego Padres ten prospects in the top 100, seven of them are pitchers. Some logic would say that you can never have too many arms, but if they want a Noah Syndergaard or a J.T. Realmuto, Prellar might have to give someone up.

Even though he is not the top guy, one arm really worth holding on to is Luis Patino. To put in perspective their prospect talent, he is number nine on their list. So, maybe Prellar is onto something by wanting to hold on to his homegrown talent.

Just in those top ten, there are four lefties, two of which could become frontline starters. There are also several ceilings of mid rotation, and even beyond those in the top 100 in baseball there are high quality names like Cal Quantrill and Anderson Espinoza.

Prellar’s Prospects

It is never smart to bet potential against MLB production because there are so many things that can happen during the development process. This group, however, is admittedly impressive. The San Diego Padres shelled out a ton of money for Eric Hosmer recently, and they have former prominent prospects, like Manuel Margot, already starting to grow at the top level.

Based on where the Padres are at, it is smart of Prellar to keep his prospect stash to see how it plays out. Selling these guys off to try and win now will likely come back to haunt the team. There is no guarantee that the prospects will play out, but the Dodgers are a tough team to compete with heading into next year. The timing might be better to sit, wait, and bet on the development.

One thing is certain, this San Diego Padres team is going to be exciting heading forward. There is seldom this much talent in a farm system. Good on Mr. Prellar to be smart about what he has, because he has something special growing in his farm.