Baltimore Orioles manager Brandon Hyde’s tough row to hoe

The Baltimore Orioles are, belatedly, modernizing their front office. Nonetheless, new manager Brandon Hyde will have a tough row to hoe.

Superficially, the Baltimore Orioles are following in the footsteps of the Philadelphia Phillies with their recent hire of Brandon Hyde as manager. They are installing a veteran baseball man in his forties under an Ivy League-educated, younger GM. But is the following line actually an equivalency?

Brandon Hyde (45) + Mike Elias (35), Yale = Gabe Kapler (43) + Matt Klentak (38), Dartmouth

Oh, that could be debated all day, but the common thread beyond this somewhat weird statistical “equation” is that, like the Phillies, the Orioles have now been dragged, somewhat late, kicking and screaming, into an analytical era.

Why not? Last year the Orioles lost a concussive 115 games. If someone suggested playing four outfielders and four infielders on a continuing basis in 2019, could anybody in the Baltimore metropolitan area really argue against that?

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But let’s back up. That equation above is too neat. What are the differences between the Orioles and Phillies situations, even the superficial ones?

Let’s run through these two comparisons quickly:

Kapler had a major league career. Hyde did not; his minor league career lasted 200 games, and he quickly declined after tearing up in a rookie league season when he hit .372. Kapler actually won a World Series ring with the Red Sox in 2004, when he played in 136 games and hit .272. Whatever – some great managers never “made it” in The Show except as managers. (See Joe McCarthy, Jim Leyland, Earl Weaver, Joe Maddon, etc.) Hyde, unlike Kapler, had significant MLB coaching experience before his hire as an MLB skipper, including with the recent Word Series champion Cubs, as well as minor league managing experience.

As for the brilliant young GMs, Elias may have the assumed edge, getting credit for helping create the recently glittering 2017 Astros. He is credited with significantly helping Houston build up their farm system and has experience with drafting such players as Alex Bregman. But it’s not as though Klentak is a slouch, having become the Angels Assistant GM at 31, and following the 2018 Phillies improvement, picking up Jean Segura and Andrew McCutchen for his squad (so far).

When an odd parallel occurs, however, and in successive years, the obvious exercise to go through is a review of the first team’s performance as possibly predictive of the second team’s performance. Last year was Kapler’s first year as the Phillies manager; this coming season will be Hyde’s first.

So, can the Orioles expect a 14-game improvement in ‘19, like the Phillies’ jump in ‘18? This would be a wonderful first step for a rebuilding club and nearly yank Baltimore out of the MLB joke category. A 16-20 game improvement could move them under 100 losses.

Hold On

Not so fast, Bunky.

First of all, noting odd coincidences between teams’ management staffs may make for an interesting opening to an essay, but in real baseball terms, it means nothing. Pointing out such parallels is a second cousin to those annoying “stats” sometimes coughed up on Twitter – highest lifetime OPS under the lights! Best lifetime HR total against submarine pitchers! The team managers don’t swing the bat or take the mound, and no two teams are ever parallel.

Baltimore Orioles /

Baltimore Orioles

Despite Hyde’s strong credentials, and the Phillies woeful performance in team batting and defense in ’18, Hyde’s task ahead is formidable.

The first two reasons are obvious. Last season Orioles subtracted Manny Machado from the team (.297/.367/.538, partly for the O’s in ’18). Next, Baltimore has no Aaron Nola (17-6, 2.37 ERA, 0.975 WHIP last summer) in their dugout.

Having a statistical star hitter or pitcher is not absolutely necessary to MLB success, but it certainly doesn’t hurt. But having such a player is not the same thing as having a clubhouse leader, and the Orioles may well retain Adam Jones, who is such a leader. As late as Dec. 13, however, Elias was reported as saying Jones is “no different” than other free agents in the team’s consideration of the current market.

Not re-signing Jones will not be a popular move with Orioles fans, it is suspected. Replacing Machado’s numbers simply will not happen. And it says here that neither Dylan Bundy, nor Andrew Cashner, nor Alex Cobb is about to turn into Nola over the winter although with a better supporting cast, Cobb might break out as Nola did last year. The problem with that optimistic notion, even if it did occur, is Cobb would be “breaking out” at 31, whereas Nola did it at 25.

Beyond the leaders issue are other difficult realities, starting with Chris Davis, his .168 batting average last season and his albatross contract (see Coleridge, of course). At least Davis has made remarks publicly indicating a hopeful mindset: “I know for us to be successful as a team, it starts with me.” What is a player supposed to say after a historically bad season? “Unfortunately, Charlie Lau died way too young”?

Does anyone else on the Orioles appear ready to lead the team forward? One can hope.

Baltimore seems to have been waiting for Hyde (or someone) to be hired as manager to make a significant move on the free agent market. The clock is now ticking for a team in a deep hole. A nice start might be Marwin Gonzalez, who hit .303 with Houston in ’17 and can literally play almost anywhere on the field.

Orioles giving Rio Ruiz a chance. dark. Next

The clear-eyed, however, might hope for a Baltimore Orioles season for Brandon Hyde like the one he had in 2008, his second year managing in the low minors. He guided the Jupiter Hammerheads that season to a 74-64 record, an improvement, personally, of 14 wins over his total his previous season with the Carolina Mudcats. Fourteen wins. There’s that number again.

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