Phillies: Bullpen decisions now on front burner
While the Phillies add or subtract a closer, setup men and relievers to reach eight arms max, general manager Matt Klentak is determining the hurlers who will compete in spring training.
Falling dominoes:
For the Philadelphia Phillies faithful, it’s white-knuckle time for uncertainty, anxiety, and other maladies of the offseason. Meanwhile, Klentak is assembling the Phils’ roster from the foundation upward by addressing the infield-corner logjam, the outfield defense, and southpaw relievers before acquiring brighter stars.
IN OTHER WORDS: “Effective leadership is putting first things first. Effective management is discipline, carrying it out.” – Stephen Covey
Unlike the relief corps, the rotation is clearer. Klentak, probably, will add a left-handed starter and have four hurlers competing for the bottom two slots. However, one could be the long man in the pen.
On the other hand, management might not have a spot for a long reliever, and the red pinstripes may prefer having those two extra starters with the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs as injury insurance. Or Klentak could deal them for another need by February.
Prior to the Winter Meetings, the GM indicated Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter were available. And his thinking probably is to reallocate their $15.5 million toward a closer or a fireman to retire the toughest hitters with the game on the line. Of course, this info came from competitors’ front offices, not the good guys.
As for swaps, Klentak added portsiders James Pazos and Jose Alvarez, but the exec also reacquired right-hander Juan Nicasio as a $9 million salary dump. That stated, the higher-up may consider Nicasio as another reliever to move.
Presently, the hometown nine has10 relievers before signing a closer. But bargain-hunting GMs might incorrectly believe Klentak is in a roster bind and must trade his bullpen overage. However, he could ink a ninth-inning fireman and swap some of the $24.5 million owed to Neshek, Hunter and/or Nicasio.
Regarding closers, Zach Britton and Craig Kimbrel in that order are Klentak’s targets. But because the exec doesn’t reveal specifics, fans can only speculate about his preferred fireman. Or does he want another threat extinguisher like Seranthony Dominguez? It’s one or the other!
Buyer’s call:
Because many fans don’t understand that markets open at different times, they have an unnecessary concern of their team being unsuccessful during the Winter Meetings. To illustrate, two recently signed closers opened their class by setting the price range with three-year pacts of $25 million and $30 million.
As a starting point, Kimbrel is asking for $80-100 million over six campaigns. But Klentak probably won’t go past four summers, and he likely is saving his stupid money for Bryce Harper. In other words, a closer and decent starter before a superstar indicate the decision-maker’s approach.
As for Britton, who wants to close, the Yankees also have interest, but they don’t want a ninth-frame moundsman. Therefore, Britton is a good fallback option for Miller at $33 million for three years.
With Britton, the GM is basically competing with the Yanks. So, Klentak should have a reasonable expectation of inking him. But the lefty will probably decide by Dec. 23 or sooner, which, as always, depends on negotiating.
If the red pinstripes sign Britton, Hector Neris will hold the threatening opposition in the sixth or seventh innings, Dominguez will lock down the tough outs in the seventh and eighth frames, and Britton will close out the ninth inning.
Southpaw competition:
In the not-only-but-also category, Klentak dealt for lefty relievers: Pazos and Alvarez. But while Alvarez’s addition confused some, the decision-maker has also doubled up on starters in 2016 and 2017 plus two setup men in 2018. Yeah, he’s playing for one pickup to be effective and healthy,
Concerning Pazos, he mostly fires a four-seam fastball (91.8 percent) and a slider. His smoke touches 98.6 mph, but his average heater is 93.8 mph. Additionally, he produced a 2.88 ERA for 50 innings and will have an early advantage after changing leagues.
Like Pazos, Alvarez had higher ERA estimators (FIP, xFIP and SIERA) with a lower ERA: Alvarez recorded a 2.71 ERA for 63 frames. His average four-seam fastball is 91.9 mph, and his repertoire also features a slider, sinker and changeup.
While some writers have speculated the two left-handers will spell the end of Morgan’s tenure with the Phillies, they have to firstly demonstrate they both can stick with the club. And Klentak mentioned only Neshek and Hunter as trade bait. So, it’s doubtful Morgan is going to another organization for now.
As for fireballers Victor Arano and Edubray Ramos, they have been effective in a setup role. Arano had a 2.73 ERA for 59 1/3 innings, while Ramos recorded a 2.32 ERA for 42 2/3 frames. Ergo, both have earned a shot at keeping their pen seats.
If Neshek and Hunter are still with the Phils, Pazos, Alvarez and Ramos in their third option season ending April 8 can return to Triple-A, while Arano faces no restrictions in that department. In other words, Klentak has wiggle room and, therefore, no loss of negotiating power with other franchises for Neshek and Hunter.
Bullpen blueprint:
Since the end of the Winter Meetings, some writers are again penciling in Neshek and Hunter as setup men for the Phillies because Klentak didn’t move them and didn’t publicly discuss powwows about them. No rumors, no action? Some deals happen in mid-December, but others don’t: groundwork.
While Arano, Ramos and Pazos are still at or near the MLB minimum of roughly $0.5 million, the arbitration estimate for Morgan is $1.1 million, and $1.7 million is the forecast for Alvarez. As for available veterans, Neshek’s pact is $6.5 million, while Hunter and Nicasio are at $9 million. That $24.5 million easily covers a closer.
Regarding Nicasio, he had a 6.00 ERA, but his ERA estimators were nearly half of his ERA: a 2.99 FIP, a 3.18 xFIP and a 2.60 SIERA. Yes, he and Jean Segura were salary dumps, but Nicasio is better than his ’18 ERA: the Seattle Mariners decided to do a quick rebuild after not making the playoffs last summer.
Depending on pitching acquisitions before spring training, Klentak already has a possible long man in Eickhoff or others due to a loss of another rotation slot because of a new starter’s addition. Basically, the GM was in on every signed lefty available. But it’s not over yet!
While 2018’s end approaches, Klentak has his offensive pieces in place and can take his best shot at Harper: a left-side bat with power for the two or four slot. Of course, Scott Boras will do what he did with Arrieta, and some fans will not accept waiting despite having no choice in the matter.
For the starting staff, Klentak is in the mix for two free agents and two trade candidates, but signing a closer will probably happen next. But adding a “hammer” and a starter plus subtracting setup men equals many moving parts and negotiating, which requires one major GM skill. What is patience?
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
Phillies statistical goal of 80 percent:
- Dominguez: 43 good, 1 so-so and 1 blowup out of 53 total for 83.0%
- Neris: 38 good, 2 so-so and 4 blowups out of 53 total for 75.5%
- Neshek: 24 good, 2 so-so and 1 blowup out of 30 total for 86.7%
- Hunter: 40 good, 7 so-so and 0 blowups out of 65 total for 72.3%
Phillies statistical goal for new left-handers of 80 percent:
- Pazos: 44 good, 4 so-so and 1 blowup out of 60 total for 80.0%
- Alvarez: 58 good, 3 so-so and 2 blowups out of 76 total for 80.3%
Statistical goal of 80 percent:
- Kimbrel: 47 good, 3 so-so and 1 blowup out of 63 total for 79.4%
- Britton: 32 good, 2 so-so and 1 blowup out of 41 total for 82.9%
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Four-seam fastballs:
- Kimbrel: 97.2 mph average and 100.2 mph max with a curveball.
- Britton: sinker at 94.9 mph average and 97.6 mph max with a curveball.
Closers:
- Kimbrel, 30.5: 63 Gms., 62 1/3 Inn., a 2.74 ERA, 42 Saves, 5 BS, a 3.13 FIP, a 3.13 xFIP, a 2.71 SIERA, a 1.5 fWAR and a 0.99 WHIP.
- Britton, almost 31: 41 Gms., 40 2/3 Inn., a 3.10 ERA, 7 Saves, 9 Holds, a 4.22 FIP, a 3.75 xFIP, a 3.57 SIERA, a 0.1 fWAR and a 1.23 WHIP.
New Phillies relievers:
- Pazos, 27.5: 60 Gms., 50 Inn., a 2.88 ERA, 19 Holds, 2 BH, a 3.60 FIP, a 4.15 xFIP, a 3.75 SIERA, a 0.5 fWAR and a 1.24 WHIP.
- Alvarez, 29.5: 76 Gms., 63 Inn., a 2.71 ERA, 14 Holds, 3 BH, a 3.05 FIP, a 3.98 xFIP, a 3.78 SIERA, a 1.2 fWAR and a 1.16 WHIP.
- Nicasio, 32: 46 Gms., 42 Inn., a 6.00 ERA, 19 Holds, 6 BH, a 2.99 FIP, a 3.18 xFIP, a 2.60 SIERA, a 0.8 fWAR and a 1.38 WHIP.
Phillies setup men:
- Dominguez, 24: 53 Gms., 58 Inn., a 2.95 ERA, 16 Saves, 14 Holds, 4 BS, a 2.85 FIP, a 3.04 xFIP, a 2.81 SIERA, a 1.3 fWAR and a 0.93 WHIP.
- Neris, 29.5: 53 Gms., 47 2/3 Inn., a 5.10 ERA, 11 Saves, 4 Holds, 3 BS, a 4.04 FIP, a 2.71 xFIP, a 2.28 SIERA, a 0.2 fWAR and a 1.30 WHIP.
- Neshek, 38: 30 Gms., 24 1/3 Inn., a 2.59 ERA, 5 Saves, 6 Holds, 1 BS, a 3.61 FIP, a 4.99 xFIP, a 4.51 SIERA, a 0.3 fWAR and a 1.15 WHIP.
- Hunter, 32.5: 65 Gms., 64 Inn., a 3.80 ERA, 4 Saves, 25 Holds, 1 BS, a 3.63 FIP, a 4.01 xFIP, a 3.69 SIERA, a 0.7 fWAR and a 1.25 WHIP.
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