The unlikely MLB free agency crashers of 2020

Minnesota Twins

Following their 2017 post-season run, the Twins regressed to just 78 wins in 2018. Their 2019 season will say everything about Minnesota’s approach. If they continue to slide, a tear-down could be in order. But if players such as Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano return to their 2017 form, the Twins will be a team to watch next winter.

At present, they are scheduled to hit that off season with zero dollars in payroll commitments. Of their potential free agents, only pitcher Kyle Gibson would be viewed as a cornerstone piece. Most of their cornerstone talents – Sano, Jose Berrios and Max Kepler, will only be arbitration 1s, meaning they would project to earn no more than $2 million or $3 million.

Historically the Twins have operated with a payroll between $100 and $120 million. Even assuming they don’t increase that – which they could – Minnesota would have the resources to attract nearly any free agent (or free agents) Twins management believes fills a team need.

Their position is only intensified if they make gains on the AL Central-leading Cleveland Indians in 2019, a possibility that is hardly out of the question. If that happens, front-line 2020 free agents could see the Twins as a legitimate playoff contender both immediately and long-term.

Chicago White Sox

Much has been written about the White Sox’ supposed pursuit of Bryce Harper or Manny Machado. One of the best reasons for the South Siders to chill that kind of talk is the flexibility such a signing would cost them for 2020.

Before any free agent discussion makes much sense, of course, the Sox have to show progress on the field. That means their roster of so-far disappointing trade acquisitions – Yohan Moncada, Eloy Jimenez, Reynald Lopez and the like – has to lift the club’s chances out of the realm of the moribund. The Sox haven’t won more games than they’ve lost in six seasons.

Obviously, however, there’s room for an AL Central team to improve. And, like the Twins, if the White Sox do – and if they don’t hamstring themselves by signing Harper or Machado – they will be superbly positioned to be aggressive in 2020.

As it now stands, Chicago has just $6.75 million in 2020 commitments, a fraction of what could be a $100 million (or higher) payroll next year. Almost all of that is tied up in shortstop Tim Anderson, likely to be a bargain at $4 million.

They do have one significant potential free agent, first baseman Jose Abreu. If the Sox stumble in 2019, he’ll be a trade chip. But if the team shows potential, they’ll have the wherewithal to re-sign him and/or pursue one of the numerous other mid-order bats: Castellanos, Yasiel Puig, Marcel Ozuna, Goldschmidt, Rendon, Arenado, Aaron Hicks – who could be available.

They could also pursue a re-union with a former South Sider, free agent-to-be left hander Chris Sale.

Oakland A’s

The thought of the Athletics as players in MLB free agency seems somehow unsettling. Don’t, however, dismiss it entirely.

In Oakland’s case, the biggest unknown may be what progress, if any, is made toward finalizing a new stadium. Modern stadiums are designed to be money-makers, so such a concrete plan would open a new revenue stream.

In other respects, the A’s are already well-positioned to be aggressive in 2020. They do lose star DH Khris Davis to free agency, but have just $8 million in pre-set commitments, almost all of that to outfielder Stephen Piscotty. Their two best every-day players, Matt Chapman and Matt Olson, will still be pre-arbitration eligible. And if they’re really lucky, the core of their young pitching staff – Sean Manaea, Daniel Mengden, Jhareal Cotton – will be returning from the epidemic of arm injuries that is expected to sideline them for much or all of 2019.

The future of the stadium negotiations really is central to the A’s prospects to compete for talent. Their payroll has never topped $90 million. But with a stadium deal in place by this time next year, they could jack that payroll north of $100 million and find themselves flush with the kind of cash that would enable them to pursue whatever the 2019 season shows that they need to continue to be competitive.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates presently list only $18 million in 2020 payroll commitments, probably amounting to about 20 percent of their likely 2020 payroll. That percentage could be compromised if they elect to pick up their $11.5 million and $9 million options respectively on outfielder Starling Marte and pitcher Chris Archer. If the team folds in 2019, then they trade both for prospects at the deadline and the rest of this discussion is pointless.

But if the Pirates find themselves to be competitive in the challenging NL Central, — meaning they pick up the Marte and Archer options – they still have less than $40 million in commitments against a projected $90 million payroll.

The key is likely to be the progress generated by a mound staff in which the Pirates are heavily committed. In addition to Archer, that staff includes Jameson Taillon, Chad Kuhl, Felipe Vazquez and Trevor Williams. Potentially, they would combine talent with payroll flexibility that could make the Pirates players for a big mid-order bat.

Because they compete in the NL Central, where every team is either mature or improving, the Pirates may not be able to envision such a future. It is vital to their hopes to survive the 2019 season’s first three months…in other words, to avoid being trade deadline sellers.

Milwaukee Brewers

As difficult as the prospect is for Cubs fans to ponder, consider the notion that the NL Central champion Brewers might only be poised to get better.

At this moment, the Brewers have less than $50 million in 2020 payroll commitments on a budget that generally runs between $100 and 120 million. Their largest tie-ups are to Ryan Braun ($17 million) and Lorenzo Cain ($16 million.) The also owe MVP Christian Yelich $12.5 million. So the outfield isn’t going anywhere.

Depending on what they do the remainder of this off-season, the Brewers could be well-positioned to take their pick of 2020 free agents. Their biggest needs might be on the mound, given the potential loss of Jhoulys Chacin and the uncertainty surrounding the return from shoulder surgery of Jimmy Nelson.

But those are the kinds of needs a Verlander, Sale or Cole signing could profoundly address. Beyond that, if they find that Orlando Arcia doesn’t develop as a hitter, and if the Red Sox fail to tie up Xander Bogaerts, well…

Finally, consider the prospect of the Brewers increasing their payroll. Milwaukee drew 2.85 million in 2018, the franchise’s best total since 2011. Given continued on-field success, there’s no reason why they can’t challenge their franchise record of 3.076 million…and reap the increased revenue that goes with it.

Cincinnati Reds

Looking forward, the Reds are a tantalizing team whose potential hinges almost entirely on the growth of one aspect, its pitching staff.

For several seasons now, that staff has been wretched, ranking 24th or worse in ERA annually since 2015. The team is committed to a young core – Tanner Roark, Sal Romano, Anthony DeSclafani, Luis Castillo, Tyler Mahle — it hopes will reverse that course.

The problem, of course, is that the Reds have staked themselves to a core of young pitchers before. As they have amply demonstrated, young pitchers don’t always work out.

There’s little doubt about the core of the Cincinnati offense. Veteran Joey Votto is complemented by emerging stars of the stripe of Eugenio Suarez, Jose Peraza and Tucker Barnhart.

Cincinnati has $53 million in 2020 commitments, the bulk of them involving Votto and Suarez. The Reds do stand to lose prospective free agent Scooter Gennett at season’s end.  But they can expect a payroll around – and possible north of — $100 million, so there will be flexibility.

That puts the Reds in a position very similar to their divisional rivals, the Pirates. If they can demonstrate progress against the firm tide of the NL Central prior to the trading deadline, management will be well-positioned to compete in the winter 2020 market.

Toronto Blue Jays

With only 73 wins last season, the Jays have a long way to go to envision themselves on a plane with the Red Sox or Yankees.

Suppose, however, just for the sake of argument, that Toronto can find its way to .500 in 2019. At that point, the Jays could be superbly position to compete for any of free agency’s biggest names entering the 2020 season.

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At present, Toronto faces just $17 million in firm payroll commitments for 2020 – almost all of that unproductively obligated to the since-departed Troy Tulowitzki. Marcus Stroman, Kevin Pillar, Randall Grichuk and Aaron Sanchez all will be arbitration-eligible that year, but even if they collectively cost another $30 million – unlikely – the Jays will still have maximum payroll flexibility. Keep in mind that they’ve averaged more than $160 million in payroll the past few seasons.

For Toronto, the key will be giving management reason to believe in the team’s development.  The Jays don’t have to win the AL East in 2019, they don’t even have to contend. But they do have to improve.

If they do, management has demonstrated the willingness to make the plunge in MLB free agency. Just in recent seasons, Toronto committed $134 million over seven years to Tulowitzki, and $82 million across five seasons to Russell Martin.

There are certainly other teams that could make a big move in MLB free agency, but these are teams that typically are not heavily involved in the free agent market that could make some noise next offseason.