For two straight years fans of the St. Louis Cardinals have been anticipating the almost certain rise to stardom for Alex Reyes. But in a narrative that is all to familiar for baseball fans, injuries could be derailing the seemingly limitless potential in his arm.
It is premature to think that Alex Reyes is done. Of course he isn’t. The St. Louis Cardinals top prospect since 2015, according to MLB Pipeline, is in a career limbo at this point. There is a chance that he becomes a story of ‘what could have been’ but he first needs to answer the question of ‘what if’ after his second consecutive season ending arm injury.
Let’s back up. It is Spring Training, 2017. Reyes threw 46 innings the year prior and he looked like everything that was advertised. The hype is at it’s peak for his real debut that season, until he felt discomfort in his elbow. Hoping for the best, but fearing the worst, the Cardinals and their fan base had to wait. Then, news came. Tommy John surgery.
Okay, not great. But with today’s medicine TJ surgery is not the biggest deal in the world. The road to recovery begins, and he looks dominant in his minor league rehab. Here comes that hype train again. Reyes makes his comeback in the way of four scoreless innings. St. Louis is rejoining in a big way. Then the hype train crashes yet again thanks to a tendon in his lat that had to be surgically reattached.
In an article on MLB.com written by Joe Trezza, he says that Reyes should be expected to make a full recovery. That is certainly the hope, and is not out of the question, but shoulder issues are no safe bet.
Looking Back
If history can tell the story, Jake Peavy is certainly a pitcher to look at. He too had a tear in his lat back in 2010. Surgery effectively saved his career. That injury happened in early July, and he pitched again in May of 2011.
Peavy won a Cy Young a couple years before his injury. He made his comeback in his 30 year old season, and he was very serviceable for another half a decade. Without digging too deep into his numbers, he would consistently post FIPs in the three’s and low four’s. It was a far cry from the top of his game.
There is a question of how much age played a role in Peavy’s performance after the injury. Reyes will be 24 through late August. That could be the difference from a 30 year old Peavy.
Looking Forward
I mean no disrespect to Peavy, his comeback was absolutely amazing. He was a good pitcher for years afterward, which is quite the accomplishment. Looking at where he was before and after that injury is important to looking at what can reasonably be expected from Reyes.
There is really no answer to how high Reyes’ ceiling might have been. There is also nothing saying he won’t reach those heights. Although, St. Louis Cardinals fans should not have those expectations. Shoulder injuries are just too fickle.
One way to combat the injury prone nature is to bring Reyes along slowly. If he can still provide electricity with his fastball and create whiffs with a plus curve, then put him in the bullpen. This should happen. I will die on this hill.
The short stints to start will be better on his arm. Not to mentions that while he gets back to competition, he can maximize his scary good stuff.
Consider Josh Hader of the Brewers as a template of how much high ceiling arms can contribute to a team from the bullpen. After a season or two of healthy play, if the St. Louis Cardinals still want to, they can easily move him back to the rotation. I think they first target to hit, however, is a healthy season.
The hype train is going to leave the station again for the St. Louis Cardinals top prospect, but this time it will use a little more caution. There is no telling how Reyes’ ceiling will change until we see him throw.