Bryce Harper still breaks the Dodgers bank

Friday’s Dodgers deal with Cincinnati opens up payroll space for somebody, but not necessarily the top free agent

What, if anything, does the Dodgers trade of Yasiel Puig, Matt Kemp and Alex Wood say about their interest in Bryce Harper?

As expected, the Twitterverse rose to the bait provided by Friday’s trade of those three names to the Cincinnati Reds, speculation ramping up that the idea was to position LA to land Harper. Even factoring in the $23 million cost of accepting Homer Bailey, the three moves trimmed an estimated  $20 million from the Dodgers’ 2019 payroll, reducing it to what is now estimated to be about $187 million.

Even so, LA remains only about $20 million below the luxury tax threshold, something Dodger team officials have said they do not want to run afoul of. The Athletic’s Eno Sarris tweeted as much Friday night.

“If they are going to stay under the cap, & Dodgers have said they want to, they don’t have enough remaining for Bryce Harper,” Pollock tweeted. “Pollock maybe. Not Harper. They just traded away an icon for flexibility & they have around $15m to spend if they want to keep $5m for in-season/buffer.”

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Virtually nobody expects Harper to sign for anything close to $15 million per year, or even $20 million, for that matter. In September, he perfunctorily turned down a 10-year, $300 million offer to remain with the Washington Nationals.

So if the Dodgers wanted to pursue Harper, assuming they would need at least $30 million in payroll flexibility, they’d still need to clear an additional $10 million to do so. The Dodgers have six players at that payroll level, but the only one who might be moveable is pitcher Hyun-Jin Ryu, who will earn $17.9 million in 2019.

It is, of course, a fair question whether the Dodgers will obey their own self-imposed payroll tax dictum. As others have pointed out on Twitter, there is no baseball law compelling LA to stay under $207 million. Beyond that, any team negotiating with Harper’s agent, Scott Boras, has ample financial motivation to publicly deny its deep and abiding interest.

The “Pollock” referred to  in Sarris’ tweet is A.J. Pollock, also a free agent outfielder who hit .257 for Arizona in 2018. He is projected to cost less than Harper, he is expected to sign for fewer seasons, and he can play center field, something Harper has no experience at doing. Expense, contract length and center field familiarity are believed to be three boxes the Dodgers would like to check in any free agent outfield signing.