Boston Red Sox: Could Craig Kimbrel Return to Boston?
By Dylan Smith
Now that Craig Kimbrel has lowered his asking price, is the righty set for a reunion with the Boston Red Sox?
Could we see a reunion between Craig Kimbrel and the Boston Red Sox?
The Red Sox’s President of Baseball Operations, Dave Dombrowski, downplayed the possibility at the Winter Meetings, as he told reporters that the club was not going to be “overly aggressive with big expenditures for our closer at this point” (MLB.com).
This sentiment is understandable, as Kimbrel was reportedly commanding a hefty $100 million contract over 6 years. The keywords in Dombrowski’s statement are “at this point”.
Flashing forward to this week, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported that the Boston Red Sox “are waiting to see what happens with Craig Kimbrel before making any moves in the relief market”, and Jon Heyman of Fancred Sports reported that the hard-throwing righty had dropped his asking price to $86 million.
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Could this be the “point” that Dombrowski was talking about?
Kimbrel’s new $86 million request matches the amount that the New York Yankees paid Aroldis Chapman back in 2016. While Kimbrel’s new request is still a large chunk of change, it is certainly more reasonable.
Could this new asking price be more in the ballpark for the Boston Red Sox?
Personally, I don’t think so, as the Red Sox are a club with luxury tax concerns. Those concerns are here for the foreseeable future as their young roster will only continue getting more and more expensive.
Teams seem to be interested in Kimbrel over a four-year term, even though he is commanding five-plus years. Why commit the time and money to a pitcher full of question marks when there are many alternatives still on the free agent market? The Red Sox have reached a level of comfort watching Kimbrel close games, but there are cheaper options on the market who will not command such a time commitment, i.e. David Robertson or Adam Ottavino.
Now, going back to my comment about Kimbrel being full of question marks…
Craig Kimbrel has been one of the best, if not the best closer in baseball for the better part of the last decade. Since becoming the full time closer for the Atlanta Braves in 2011, Kimbrel has posted 333 saves, averaging 41.62 per season. His career ERA is a mere 1.91 and his career ERA+ comes in at an outstanding 211.
Those numbers are fantastic, but teams should be wary of his long-term value.
After a solid first half of 2018, Kimbrel struggled mightily down the stretch of the season. Through the righty’s first 40.2 innings pitched, Kimbrel looked like his normal dominant self. The flamethrower posted an ERA of 1.77 while opponents only managed to post an OPS of .534.
In the second half of the season (including the playoffs), Kimbrel was much more hittable posting an inflated ERA of 5.01 and let opposing hitters record an OPS of .696 against him.
We also saw Kimbrel struggle with his command. The righty walked 6.4 batters per nine innings following the All-Star break. This number is almost double his career average, as Kimbrel has walked 3.5 batters per nine innings throughout his career.
The relief market is historically volatile. Could these struggles signal that Craig Kimbrel is no longer his dominant, lockdown self? Would signing Kimbrel to a record contract be worth the risk? He is not old, but father time could catch up with the righty. Granting Kimbrel a five-six year pact would be a ridiculous risk for any club. The righty should make the average annual value that he is in search for, but he may have to settle for three-four years, max.
For the Boston Red Sox, I believe that committing significant time and money to Kimbrel would be a mistake.
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As I said, I do believe that he will be paid close to his asking price, but his struggles and lofty cost seem to have the Red Sox wary about reuniting with their All-Star closer. Kimbrel’s talent and track record will likely land him the deal that he wants, but the Boston Red Sox just do not appear to be a good fit. As Dave Dombrowski said, Kimbrel does not seem to make sense for his club, “at this time”.