2019 Philadelphia Phillies: January's big-ticket splash

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Keuchel’s holding out only improves the Phillies chances of signing him at a reduced price. Photo by Loren Elliott/MLB Photos via Getty Images. /

The Phillies are a dangerous foe with stupid money for the most expensive talent, and general manager Matt Klentak proved last offseason he has the patience to handle even super agent Scott Boras to ink a star.

Acquisition targets:

As the Philadelphia Phillies enter the final month without on-field baseball, the stakes are the highest against deep-pocketed organizations. Yes, the top closer, one slugger from each side of the batter’s box, and a two-slot southpaw will probably be deciding their tomorrow in January.

IN OTHER WORDS: “Our careers aren’t paths so much as landscapes that are navigated. We’re free agents, entrepreneurs, intrapreneurs — each with our own unique brand.” – Keith Ferrazzi

Despite the bemoaning of their fan bases, GMs –who plan to keep their jobs– devise a time-extended strategy for costly free agents: Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel. This includes alternatives like Zach Britton, Mike Minor and Andrew McCutchen.

While money is negotiable in either direction, franchises exercise patience and backup plans. And most times the Jake Arrietas are last: The Boras Corporation’s starting point for the bearded moundsman had been $210 million over seven campaigns, but they settled for $75 million over three summers.

Who is Klentak bidding against? The New York Yankees, the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Chicago Cubs are the top clubs in the three largest markets. Additionally, their fans expect more than a league pennant.

While the faithful detest this lengthy process, the stars have their lives on hold: a new city, a new home address and new schools to name a few. In fact, today’s media broadcasts their landing spot within a few hours of them knowing it. However, teams reward them handsomely.

Rumors have many fathers. To illustrate, a national writer can interpret information correctly to reach the right answer or anticipate a long shot in error. Of course, some organizations and/or agents use the media to increase the price or the competition for their player. Devious? No, just human.

While Kimbrel and Machado will sign in January, Keuchel and Harper will only be possibilities to ink a contract before February. Yes, Keuchel and Harper are –good guess!– Boras clients like Arrieta.

Even if Harper holds out until spring training, the Phillies could still sign him. Photo by Dustin Bradford/Getty Images. /

Deals with complications:

Even though other franchises besides Chicago (NL), Los Angeles (NL) and New York (AL) could take a shot at the top free agents remaining, the Phillies will mostly compete against these three. That stated, these three are in a weaker negotiating position than the red pinstripes.

Firstly, the Cubbies have only exceeded the Competitive Balance Threshold once, and they traded a starter to the Texas Rangers to exercise Cole Hamels‘ $20 million club option for ’19. But, apparently, they won’t rule out signing Harper.

While the Dodgers and Yankees either moved players or are considering that method to make room financially and rosterwise for a superstar, Cubs president Theo Epstein is now tackling that approach. And his meeting with Boras included asking for a last look before Harper commits elsewhere. Too late?

As for Los Angeles (NL), they swapped corner outfielders Matt Kemp and Yasiel Puig to significantly lower their payroll. And the first impression was their plan is to acquire Harper. Unfortunately, they have a left-heavy lineup and need a right-side bat with power preferably for first base.

Although most speculation is for 2019, some have examined the free-agent list for 2020, and one name stands out. Yes, Paul Goldschmidt would solve both needs, but Giancarlo Stanton is another possibility –albeit doubtful– if the Dodgers are willing to deal some prospects.

Regarding the Yanks, general manager Brian Cashman wanted to trade Stanton and replace him with Harper. Like the Chavez Ravine residents, the Bronx Bombers need a hitter with pop. But they have a right-heavy lineup and no position for Harper without moving a corner outfielder.

Now, Cashman is thinking about dealing third baseman Miguel Andujar or switching him to first base. As a 2018 rookie, he hit .297 and 27 long balls with 92 RBIs, but he was a defensive liability. Therefore, Cashman has interest in Machado.

Waiting for a strong sign of interest, Kimbrel’s price will have to drop again before he inks a deal. Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images. /

Arms on sale:

With four expensive free agents up for grabs in January, the Phillies are in an excellent position to sign one because they can add a player without having to make payroll space or other moves. And many front offices can’t wait until the last minute to fill a spot.

Over the last five years performance-wise, Keuchel, 31, has had one so-so and three excellent 162s, but in ’18 he was good at 12-11 with a 3.74 ERA and similar ERA estimators (FIP, xFIP and SIERA) over 204 2/3 frames. He’s a control pitcher who twirls an 89.2-mph sinker with sliders, cutters, changeups and fastballs.

For north of $100 million over six seasons, Keuchel will be among the final pieces still available near February. But a national-publication estimate was $82 million for four summers. However, the Phils aren’t facing stiff competition from the Atlanta Braves, Cincinnati Reds, San Diego Padres or Los Angeles Angels.

Aside from the Yanks, the Phillies are in a good position, but New York (AL) probably isn’t willing to ink a big bat and the left-hander. So, the outlook is good for Klentak to push for possibly a three-campaign pact of $70 million, but it will be a similar time situation to Arrieta’s 2018.

Kimbrel, 30, appeared in 63 games with a 2.74 ERA and 42 saves out of 47 chances over 62 1/3 innings. As for his arsenal, he has a curveball to complement 97.2-mph smoke, and that four-seam fastball tops out at 100.2 mph. Additionally, some claim his control is off a bit, but many relievers have that problem.

While some organizations are chasing Britton, Kimbrel has dropped from $100 million for six seasons to $86 million for five. But only the Boston Red Sox are openly monitoring his market and hoping his price drops to four summers at $60-70 million. However, the Phillies may go $70-80 million for four years.

Because the Dodgers now need a right-side bat with power, will they reconsider re-signing Machado and moving Turner to first base? Photo by Adam Glanzman/MLB Photos via Getty Images. /

“Barbed” weapons:

Even though Harper’s average has fluctuated from .330, .243, .319 to 2018’s .249, he still launched 34 bombs with 100 RBIs. And he’ll probably have a banner 162 with a new team because he must prove he’s worth the coin. But will his average again vary downward after ’19?

Forecasted to receive $420 million for 14 seasons, Harper, 26, may finish below both of those predictions. Currently, he is under consideration by the Chicago White Sox, New York (AL), Los Angeles (NL) and Chicago (NL). But he prefers the Dodgers.

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To be in the hunt, the Yanks could trade Stanton, the Dodgers could ignore their left-heavy lineup, the Cubs must clear the equivalent payroll, and the White Sox must outbid everybody due to being a rebuilding franchise. Ergo, the Phillies still have a decent shot for a needed left-side hitter with power.

After batting .297 with 37 homers and 107 RBIs, Machado, 26, is a more consistent hitter than Harper. But he probably won’t reach his projected $390 million for 13 summers. For now, New York (AL), Chicago (AL) and Los Angeles (NL) –if they move Turner to first base– are Klentak’s main competitors for the infielder.

While the Yankees don’t want a 10-year deal with Machado, the guess here is eight campaigns, and they’d have to move rookie-sensation Andujar. Meanwhile, the Pale Hose will probably have a limit with a couple 162s left for restructuring. And even though Machado’s preference is New York (AL), things are still up in the air.

Many clubs have set their rosters by January and are only making tweaks to their projected 25. But while the red pinstripes have a clear shot at one or two of these four stars, they know who the unexpected challenger is. Yes, the wild card!

Next. Phillies: Plan B revisited post-Winter Meetings. dark

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