Phillies: NL East’s 4-way battle in 2019
Even though the Phillies and their divisional rivals have six weeks of wheeling and dealing left before spring training, general manager Matt Klentak and his contemporaries have made meaningful roster changes.
Additions and subtractions:
The Philadelphia Phillies faithful like their divisional foes in New York are bemoaning a fourth-place finish based on their unfulfilled expectations. On the other hand, a few franchises make major acquisitions in January because some negotiations are time-consuming.
IN OTHER WORDS: “Ambition is like love, impatient both of delays and rivals.” – Gautama Buddha
In 2018, a couple Phils’ shortcomings became clear: The offense needed two pieces –one big. The pitching plan was to add a closer and rotation southpaw and have four arms competing for the two bottom slots. However, Klentak could swap one and use one as a long man.
As for the fans, some locally are dreading a .500 campaign because they have doubts about the front office. Firstly, the asking price is not a “take it or leave it” cost: It’s a starting point. For the agent, it’s higher than the exec’s proposal. But the organization usually makes the final offer.
Before the haggling, the player, agent and management estimate a star’s value. But each side opens on either side of that figure: The player wants more but takes a reasonable proposal, and the team prefers to underpay: a rare bargain. Yes, exceptions notwithstanding.
While the Winter Meetings produce major trades and signings, the headliners have the most suitors, the highest price tag, and the longest time frame to complete an agreement. So, if a star has limited opportunities or desires to have a contract before January, he doesn’t hesitate regarding his future employment.
By now, many clubs have moved on from the holdouts who will decide during January’s 31 days. Otherwise, those GMs had feared roster holes if they didn’t fill them before year’s end. Among them, the Atlanta Braves, Washington Nationals and New York Mets have mostly completed their heavy lifting.
Klentak had picked up a .300 hitter, replaced his first sacker’s bat with Andrew McCutchen, and improved his infield and outfield defense. But while the faithful expected stupid money in ’18, the red pinstripes had not said how and when they’d spend it. Or on whom! Translation: a late January surprise.
New cellar:
In New York, Mets supporters are complaining about the Braves, Nationals and Phillies finishing ahead of them. In other words, a new last place. Yeah, the franchise didn’t do enough to win the division, and the other teams have done more to succeed in ’19. Sound familiar?
The Metropolitans had accepted an aging Robinson Cano‘s five remaining 162s to acquire young stud closer Edwin Diaz and re-signed last summer’s ninth-inning fireman to set him up. Meanwhile, they inked catcher Wilson Ramos for improved hitting and receiving. That stated, they may yet add a solid reliever.
Because a major pickup isn’t probable, Mets outfielders and relievers will compete in March for 2019’s roles. But injuries to key players have been a recurring issue the last two seasons, and the guess here is the business end is over-influencing medical-staff decisions besides those unwilling to admit physical problems.
After Washington signed Patrick Corbin, they resigned themselves to the reality their superstar outfielder would land elsewhere. Basically, inking Corbin was to remain competitive with less run production. And picking up Anibal Sanchez as a four-slot moundsman was a similar move.
While the Nationals’ offense is missing two solid left-handed bats, their relief corps is still a middle-of-the-pack unit like 2018. And they’ll have a rookie center fielder, an aging first baseman, and currently a second base platoon if they don’t sign a free agent.
Realistically, the Nats are competitive but not an overwhelming favorite to capture the division. But will they be atop the predictions for 2019’s NL East, or will that go to Atlanta? However, a major acquisition with stupid money would alter that forecast.
NL East pennant:
To defend their division crown, the Braves inked Josh Donaldson and Brian McCann to one-campaign pacts. Donaldson, 33, will have the chance to rebuild his value for a long-term commitment after an injury-riddled ’18. As for McCann, 35, Atlanta added him for $2 million with his career nearing its end.
Regarding roster openings, the Braves haven’t picked up a starter or a replacement in right field with $25 million remaining. They had entered the winter with roughly $50 million and allocated half for Donaldson and McCann. Of course, they may be waiting for a late January bargain and reserving dollars for July 31.
Atlanta has enough pitching and offense to earn the divisional flag again, but Donaldson must produce the way he did before 2018. And if he does, he will more than replace the offense of right fielder Nick Markakis. Additionally, they may depend more on their young starters to handle some of the workload.
While the other three organizations probably won’t sign any significant pieces before spring training, the Phillies may add a hitter with power to McCutchen and Jean Segura. In the pen, Juan Nicasio, James Pazos, Jose Alvarez and now David Robertson were the pickups increasing the total to 11 solid relievers. March madness?
On the horizon, starters and two big bats are available via free agency or a trade, and stupid money is probably a four-summer offer instead of three or 10 seasons, not eight. And some contracts could have a higher AAV (average annual value). Remember, it was a little stupid, not insane!
Negotiations happen two ways. Scott Boras clients have a back-and-forth relationship of demands and proposals, while other free agents receive offers, initial and final. To illustrate, Jake Arrieta received the Phils’ final proposal because Klentak had the luxury of adding payroll in February. Here we go again!
The Numerical Bible:
This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.
New Phillies hitters:
- Segura, 28.5: 144 Gms., 632 PA, a .304 Avg., a .341 OBP, a .415 SLG, a .111 ISO, a .327 BABIP, 10 HR, 63 RBI, a .755 OPS and a 3.8 fWAR.
- McCutchen, 32,: 155 Gms., 682 PA, a .255 Avg., a .368 OBP, a .424 SLG, a .169 ISO, a .304 BABIP, 20 HR, 65 RBI, a .792 OPS and a 2.6 fWAR.
More from Call to the Pen
- Philadelphia Phillies, ready for a stretch run, bomb St. Louis Cardinals
- Philadelphia Phillies: The 4 players on the franchise’s Mount Rushmore
- Boston Red Sox fans should be upset over Mookie Betts’ comment
- Analyzing the Boston Red Sox trade for Dave Henderson and Spike Owen
- 2023 MLB postseason likely to have a strange look without Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals
New hitters in the NL East:
- Donaldson, 32.5: 52 Gms., 219 PA, a .246 Avg., a .352 OBP, a .449 SLG, a .203 ISO, a .302 BABIP, 8 HR, 30 RBI, an .801 OPS and a 1.3 fWAR.
- McCann, almost 35: 63 Gms., 216 PA, a .212 Avg., a .301 OBP, a .339 SLG, a .127 ISO, a .229 BABIP, 7 HR, 23 RBI, a .640 OPS and a 0.5 fWAR.
- Ramos, 31: 111 Gms., 416 PA, a .306 Avg., a .358 OBP, a .487 SLG, a .181 ISO, a .353 BABIP, 15 HR, 70 RBI, a .845 OPS and a 2.4 fWAR.
- Cano, 36: 80 Gms., 348 PA, a .303 Avg., a .374 OBP, a .471 SLG, a .168 ISO, a .329 BABIP, 10 HR, 50 RBI, a .845 OPS and a 2.9 fWAR.
New Phillies relievers:
- Pazos, 27.5: 60 Gms., 50 Inn., a 2.88 ERA, 19 Holds, 2 BH, a 3.60 FIP, a 4.15 xFIP, a 3.75 SIERA, a 0.5 fWAR and a 1.24 WHIP.
- Alvarez, 29.5: 76 Gms., 63 Inn., a 2.71 ERA, 14 Holds, 3 BH, a 3.05 FIP, a 3.98 xFIP, a 3.78 SIERA, a 1.2 fWAR and a 1.16 WHIP.
- Nicasio, 32: 46 Gms., 42 Inn., a 6.00 ERA, 19 Holds, 6 BH, a 2.99 FIP, a 3.18 xFIP, a 2.60 SIERA, a 0.8 fWAR and a 1.38 WHIP.
- Robertson, 33.5: 69 Gms., 69 2/3 Inn., a 3.23 ERA, 5 Saves, 21 Holds, a 2.97 FIP, a 3.09 xFIP, a 2.88 SIERA, a 1.5 fWAR and a 1.03 WHIP.
New pitchers in the NL East:
- Corbin, 29.5: 33 Gms., 200 Inn., 11-7, a 3.15 ERA, a 2.47 FIP, a 2.61 xFIP, a 2.91 SIERA, a 6.3 fWAR and a 1.05 WHIP.
- Sanchez, almost 35: 25 Gms. (1 relief), 136 2/3 Inn., 7-6, a 2.83 ERA, a 3.62 FIP, a 3.81 xFIP, a 3.85 SIERA, a 2.4 fWAR and a 1.08 WHIP.
- Diaz, 24.5: 73 Gms., 73 1/3 Inn., a 1.96 ERA, 57 Saves, 4 BS, a 1.61 FIP, a 1.78 xFIP, a 1.49 SIERA, a 3.5 fWAR and a 0.79 WHIP.
Next. Phillies: January's big-ticket splash. dark
If you have any questions or opinions regarding Philadelphia Phillies players, please open the comments section.