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Seattle Mariners: Fantasy expectations for Yusei Kikuchi

By David Hill |
MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - NOVEMBER 17: Yusei Kikuchi pitcher for the Aces in action during the Australian Baseball League match between the Melbourne Aces and the Brisbane Bandits at Melbourne Showgrounds on November 17, 2011 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Hamish Blair/Getty Images)
MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - NOVEMBER 17: Yusei Kikuchi pitcher for the Aces in action during the Australian Baseball League match between the Melbourne Aces and the Brisbane Bandits at Melbourne Showgrounds on November 17, 2011 in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Hamish Blair/Getty Images)

Now that Yusei Kikuch has signed with the Seattle Mariners, what should we expect from him for the coming season.

The Yusei Kikuchi Watch is now over. The Seattle Mariners have inked the intriguing Japanese lefty to a unique contract, with either three, four, or seven years guaranteed. Even though the Mariners are rebuilding, the talented 27 year old is the type of pitcher the Mariners could build around. At least, that is the hope.

Now that Kikuchi is set to come stateside, it is time to ask the important question – what can be expected from him in fantasy baseball? For fantasy managers in both seasonal and dynasty leagues, Kikuchi is going to be a very intriguing option in the rotation.

In his eight years in Japan, Kikuchi put together a solid career. He posted a 74-48 record, along with a 2.81 ERA and a 1.177 WHiP. Over his 1035.1 innings, he struck out 925 batters while issuing only 381 walks. Kikuchi also did an impressive job of keeping the ball in the park, allowing only 75 homers.

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There are concerns with Kikuchi. He has had shoulder issues that curtailed his 2010 and 2013 seasons, and flared up again in 2018. Kikuchi has eclipsed the 170 inning mark once in those eight seasons, and has only two years with over 150 innings. Yet, his pure stuff, including a mid 90s fastball and a solid four pitch mix, makes him a potential top of the rotation starter.

For those looking to add Kikuchi in fantasy, he has certainly landed in a favorable spot. T-Mobile Park, as Safeco Field is now being called, has historically favored pitchers. Since the start of 2010, only AT&T Park has been more favorable for pitchers, making Seattle an excellent landing spot for the talented lefty.

The Mariners division also helps expectations for Kikuchi. Minute Maid Park and Globe Life Stadium, home of the Astros and Rangers respectively, are the only stadiums that have a park factor favoring hitters. While the Astros may be the class of the AL West, the Rangers are in the midst of a rebuild. Five of the Rangers projected members of the starting lineup are also left handed, with only Rougned Odor able to relatively hold his own against lefties.

However, there are the Mariners own issues. They are in the midst of their own rebuild, with Jerry Dipoto looking to trade virtually everything on the roster. Those moves, while potentially strengthening the roster for the future, will limit Kikuchi’s numbers for fantasy purposes. Nonetheless, Kikuchi should be useful as a third or fourth starter in fantasy, likely posting 12 or so wins with an ERA in the mid 3.00s while striking out nearly a batter per inning. That type of performance would be acceptable for a third or fourth pitcher in a fantasy rotation.

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Yusei Kikuchi is now a member of the Seattle Mariners, and is an interesting option in fantasy baseball for the coming year. Just be sure to have realistic expectations for 2019.

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