MLB Hot Stove: Probable Contenders with Roster Holes Heading Into the 2019 Season
The 2019 season is quickly approaching, and there are some teams who contended for the playoffs last year who still have some big holes in their rosters as the MLB hot stove season completes.
Pitchers and catchers are set to report to spring training in less than two months, but that doesn’t mean you should expect things to slow down on the offseason acquisitions front. Free agent darlings Bryce Harper and Manny Machado remain unsigned this MLB hot stove season, and there are certainly some players on the trading block that will be moved before Cactus and Grapefruit League action is underway.
During this time of year the most interesting teams to watch are often the ones who seem like they already have it all. No team is perfect; even so-called “super teams” have their deficiencies, and adding new players to an already stacked roster is a complex balancing act, both for payroll and playtime reasons.
Almost as interesting as a big free agent signing by a contending team is the transaction that proceeds it, like the one we just saw between the Reds and the Dodgers. There have been rumors that the Red Sox are also looking into moving some players to clear up some payroll space, and the Indians have been trying to move Corey Kluber all winter.
So, as things are getting down to the wire and teams are shuffling players around getting let’s take a look at a few probable contenders who have big holes in their rosters. This should give us a better idea of which trades mentioned above are likely to happen, and what teams have weaknesses that might affect them as the season gets started.
Cleveland Indians
In 2018 the Indians won the AL Central for the third season in a row but were bounced in the ALDS by the powerhouse Houston Astros. Since then they’ve undergone a lot of change.
The main area where the Indians have seen a lot of movement is in the outfield. Michael Brantley is now an Astro, Rajai Davis is with the Mets, and Melky Cabrera is still testing the waters of free agency. Out of these three Brantley is the only major loss, but there’s still a lot to worry about with the current make up of the team’s outfield, which was already it’s weak spot last year.
Right now the Indians depth chart lists Jordan Luplow starting in left, Tyler Naquin starting in right and Leonys Martin starting in center. None of the three played in more than 100 games last year, and only Martin had an OPS over .700. To be fair Naquin and Martin both have relatively small sample sizes from their time in the league; they’re both pretty young and likely have room to grow.
Still, this doesn’t sound like the outfield of a championship team. For the last three years the Indians have had the luxury of playing in a pretty weak division, and the line up as it stands now is likely good enough to win it again, but if they want to go further and end the team’s 70 year World Series drought they’ll need to add some outfield firepower. A Kluber trade could open up enough cap space where the team could realistically pursue two outfielders, and A.J. Pollock, Nick Markakis, and Marwin Gonzales are all still on the board.
Atlanta Braves
It was no secret at the beginning of last season that the Braves had some pretty talented young players, but nobody expected Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ozzie Albies to have the impact that they did. The young Braves stepped up, and the result was an NL East championship.
Unfortunately, the party didn’t last long. The Dodgers dispatched the Braves in 4 games in the NLDS, and in the first two games the Braves failed to score a single run. This is probably more a product of strong Dodger pitching and young players with playoff jitters than a condemnation of the Braves offense; through the regular season the Braves had a runs per game well above the league average. If the Braves want to make a deep playoff run this year it’s actually they’re pitching that will need a boost.
Right now the Braves rotation is not strong enough to compete in the NL East. Braves starters will consistently have to go up against aces like Jacob DeGrom, Max Scherzer, Aaron Nola, Noah Syndergaard, and Jake Arrieta, just to name a few. Mike Foltynewicz right now seems like a solid top of the rotation guy for the Braves, but last year was his first really good year, leaving the possibility that it was a fluke (unlikely but possible).
Behind him is Sean Newcomb, who started strong but had a rough second half. Foltynewicz and Newcomb would be great as number two and three starters, but it’s a stretch to bump them up higher in the rotation. If one of them gets injured the situation becomes more dire, as nobody behind them in the rotation should be counted on in tough games. A trade for Kluber or the signing of Dallas Keuchel might be their best bet if they’re willing to eat the cost. Clay Buchholz could be a cheaper alternative to strengthen things, but he also carries quite the injury risk.
St. Louis Cardinals
Last August the Cardinals looked like a team that could not be beat, an idea that they disproved almost immediately with a dismal September where they went 12-15 and fell out of contention. Making matters worse was the fact that September Cardinals losses played a big hand in both the Brewers and Cubs making the playoffs; the schedule put the Cardinals’ fate in their own hands, and they blew it.
During this stretch Cardinal’s pitching was particularly bad. The Cardinals regular rotation featured no pitchers over 30; for most of the year this was fine, but in September the young group showed why many of them still had room to develop, finishing the month with an ERA of 4.06 compared to an ERA of 2.71 in August.
Even worse through this stretch (and the rest of the season) was the team’s bullpen. In September the pen combined for an ERA of 5.09. Their ERA for the season was 4.38, well under league average, and they blew 44% of their save opportunities.
The Cardinals recently acquired Paul Goldschmidt, who only has one year left on his contract, so there’s no time like the present for them to win. It’s possible they’ll be able to get Goldschmidt to fall in love with St. Louis in his one season a la Mark McGwire, but they shouldn’t count on it. The time might be good to ride on its young starters, who were pretty good for most of the year, but they’ll definitely need bullpen help. Craig Kimbrel is still available and could help them out in the saves department, and Adam Ottavino is another good late-innings option.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The playoffs where pretty rough for Yasmani Grandal, who got a lot of flack for some less than stellar defense in some pretty key moments. Still, Grandal was one of the best offensive catchers in baseball and without him the Dodgers have a hole behind the plate.
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Right now Austin Barnes is slated to be the Dodger’s starting catcher next season. On the offensive side of things this is a clear downgrade. In 2018 Barnes slashed .205/.329/.290 compared to Grandal’s .241/.349/.466. He’s a better defensive catcher than Grandal, with a defensive runs saved per 1,200 innings of 28 compared to Grandal’s 11, but the loss of Grandal is still a net loss.
One way that the Dodgers could address this issue would be by trading for J.T. Realmuto, who is itching to get out of Miami. Realmuto wouldn’t bring a big contract to the team, but the Marlins asking price for him is high and acquiring him might require trading Alex Verdugo.
Another option for the Dodgers: bring back Grandal. The team has a ton of cap space after moving Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp, which most assume was made in hopes of acquiring Bryce Harper. If this doesn’t end up happening that money will go somewhere, and Grandal would be a great choice. The Dodgers lineup is otherwise very strong, and bringing in an outfielder other than Harper would stifle the growth of Verdugo and Joc Pederson.
Next. Potential landing spots for Grandal. dark
That’s our list of some likely contenders with significant holes still to fill as the MLB hot stove season begins its descent toward spring training. Are there others you can think of? Comment below!