MLB hot stove: Next moves for the teams that miss on Harper
Right now it seems like every team wants Bryce Harper in MLB Hot Stove. Unfortunately, they can’t all have him. Here’s how the teams that lose out should rebound.
Nothing in baseball exists inside of a vacuum, especially during MLB hot stove season. The moves of one team reverberate out to all the others, informing their decisions and putting them into new situations that they must adapt to. This is especially true during the offseason, when many teams are often pursuing the same prized free agents. This is something that will be fully displayed when Bryce Harper announces where he’ll be taking his talents next year.
The splash that is Harper’s signing will cause plenty of ripples, and teams that thought they might sign Harper will scramble as front offices regroup and pursue the next player on their list.
We don’t know where Harper will sign right now, but we do have a few ideas, and the rumor mill is constantly flowing. At this time it seems like the Phillies, Dodgers, White Sox, Nationals and Cubs are the teams most likely to land him, although there is also a supposed mystery team in the mix as well. That’s all subject to change, but let’s run with it for now.
So, in their heart of hearts, some of the teams listed above might know they’re not signing Harper. But, the fact that they’re still in the conversation at this point shows that they’re still pretty serious about their pursuit; they wouldn’t be willing to even entertain the idea of giving up this kind of money if they didn’t think they needed Harper.
That means these teams have some sort of deficiency they’re trying to make up for with Bryce, and for the four teams that don’t sign him that deficiency will remain. Once Harper is off the board they’ll have to start getting to work on their second and third options, looking to round out their line up heading into the season. Let’s take a look at what that might look like.
Philadelphia Phillies
After claiming that they would spend “stupid” money this offseason the Phillies became early favorites to land Harper, though the field has become much more crowded since then. It makes sense that the Phillies see Harper as an important addition to their team; he’d be a major upgrade over current right fielder Nick Williams, and he’d bring experience to a relatively young group that was a bit inconsistent last year. With that said, even if they can’t land Harper they’re far from a lost cause.
Harper wasn’t the Phillies only target this offseason, and they were pretty active in December. The two most notable moves they made were the signing of Andrew McCutchen and a trade with the Mariners that brought them all-star infielder Jean Segura. All in all the lineup as it stands right now is pretty good. Segura was a much-needed addition to the middle infield, and McCutchen, though no longer an all-star, still looked pretty good last season, slashing .255/./368./424 last year.
If the Phillies don’t get Harper and still want to improve in right field their best bet is probably Nick Markakis, who is coming off of a strong season where he received both a Silver Slugger and a Gold Glove. Markakis fits the experience bill even better than Harper, but it also does leave the Phillies with a pretty old outfield overall; Markakis will be 35 next year and McCutchen will be 32.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are a more recent entrant in the Bryce Harper sweepstakes; there had been whisperings of interest for a while, but things didn’t seem serious until they made a major trade that sent Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp to the Cincinnati Reds. Now, the Dodger outfield is a little less crowded and the desire for Bryce seems a little bit heightened.
But let’s talk about if he doesn’t go there.
The Dodgers might honestly be better off with Harper; they already have a huge payroll and his addition would likely take some playing and developmental time away from Alex Verdugo, who’s not too far away from becoming an MLB contributor.
The loss of Puig and Kemp will be felt a little on the offensive side of things, but neither was exactly consistent. The biggest offensive deficiency the Dodgers have now compared to last year is at catcher, having lost Yasmani Grandal. Grandal is still a free agent, and if the Dodgers don’t end up having to pay Harper they should consider bringing him back on.
Another area where the Dodgers could use some new blood is starting pitching. Walker Buehler was a revelation last year and Clayton Kershaw was great when healthy, but one more solid arm to make up for Buehler’s inexperience and Kershaw’s durability could really help the team out. Corey Kluber might be a good choice for this, but his price tag might be too high and he’s not worth giving up a prospect like Verdugo.
Chicago White Sox
The White Sox are nearing the end of their rebuild, and fans are hoping to see prospects like Eloy Jimenez and Dylan Cease making their way up to the big leagues by the end of this season. The Sox are likely a year or two away from their championship window, but their pursuit of free agents this offseason has shown that they’re ready to start bringing in championship level pieces now.
Harper got some early buzz in Chicago after pictures leaked of his name adorning the United Center marquee. Since then things between him and the team have cooled down a little, so let’s talk about what’s likely to happen if they don’t get Harper.
Manny Machado appears to be the number one target of the White Sox, who recently acquired his brother in law Yonder Alonso. The Sox just put in an offer for Manny, and he’d be a great fit for where the team is right now.
Machado played a lot of shortstop for the Dodgers last year, but he’s also a very capable third baseman, which is a position where the Sox could use an upgrade. Last year Yolmer Sanchez took the majority of hot corner starts for the team, and he finished the season with a .242/.306/.372 slashline, which isn’t great. Yolmer struggles against lefties, and is more cut out for a super utility bench role than the starting line up. The addition of Machado would allow Yolmer to thrive in that role and would take some pressure off of Tim Anderson and Yoan Moncada, who showed promise last year despite having uneven seasons.
Chicago Cubs
This is a rumor predicated almost entirely on friendship. The Cubs don’t really seem to have the cap space to take on Harper, and they already have a ton of outfielders, but because Bryce Harper and Kris Bryant are friends who hang out (and Instagram) a lot the rumors are flying.
It wouldn’t be impossible for the Cubs to make some sort of move to make a play for Harper. He and Bryant would have a good time together (he’s also very good at baseball). Still, this doesn’t seem super likely, and the team already flashed a lot of their cash when they picked up Cole Hamels $20 million option. Still, there’s plenty of non-Harper moves that the Cubs should make.
One place the Cubs could certainly use help is their starting rotation. In a season where their starters were largely ineffective, the Cubs taxed their bullpen a ton, which was certainly a factor in some of their late-season losses. Jon Lester had a respectable season and Cole Hamels was good when he arrived, but Kyle Hendricks, Tyler Chatwood and Jose Quintana all underperformed, often being removed early in games (Hendricks did look better much better later in the season, so there is a silver lining).
The Cubs might be hesitant to spend a lot on a starting pitcher after Yu Darvish’s season of injuries, but there are a few free agents out there that could help without breaking the bank. Clay Buchholz had a quietly good season last year and could likely be had for cheap (though a team scared of injuries probably wouldn’t want to make that move). Derek Holland would also be a good addition and could be counted on to be reliable in the middle of the rotation.
Washington Nationals
After Harper turned down a 10-year $300 million deal from the Nationals it looked like things were all done between him and the team, but recent news suggests otherwise. Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reports that Harper and his agent Scott Boras met with National’s owner Ted Lerner around Christmas, which indicates that door is not completely closed.
But, let’s imagine it is. How can the Nationals restructure themselves to stay competitive in an ever-changing NL East without their best player?
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The loss of Harper wouldn’t totally damage the Nationals outfield; if Adam Eaton is projecting to be your worst starting outfielder you’re in a pretty good place. Victor Robles and Juan Soto look like they’re the future of the Nationals, so their outfield needs little, if any, tinkering.
Second base is a much more troubling position for the Nats; Wilmer Difo is great as a defensive sub, but he’s a liability at the plate and the Nationals will need to do better to really compete. DJ LeMahieu is still available and is coming off three strong seasons in a row, though his home/away splits suggest some of this success might be due to Coors Field.
Jed Lowrie could be a high-risk high reward acquisition at second. He’s coming off an amazing season which he finished with a 4.8 bWAR, but he’s had injury problems in the past and will be 36 next season. The addition of Lowrie would be a stop gap measure at best, so it’s possible that the Nats would rather give that time at second to a younger player who can develop alongside Robles and Soto.
Next. Early 2019 predictions. dark
None of the teams mentioned are locked into Bryce Harper, obviously, and frankly, most MLB hot stove action involves a “mystery team”, so it’s entirely likely that every team mentioned will have to move on to their plan B, though none will exactly be Harper.