Jose Bautista’s best days are behind him, but that doesn’t mean that the veteran outfielder should be ignored. Given the chance as a MLB free agent, he could surprise you.
To say MLB free agent Jose Bautista had a strange season last year would be an understatement. After being released from the Braves in May many thought that Bautista would have a hard time climbing back to the majors. Then, the Mets, in a very Mets move, signed him out of nowhere.
Things went surprisingly well. Only hours removed from his flight to New York Bautista doubled in his first at-bat, and he went on to be the only Met to score in the game. For much of the rest of the season he was actually one of the teams most capable players, putting up a 104 OPS+ in 302 plate appearances.
This performance was enough to catch the eye of the Phillies, who traded for him in hopes that he might bolster the depth of their potential playoff roster. That’s right, he went from a May release to a player worthy of a playoff roster in just about three months. The Phillies didn’t end up making the playoffs but Bautista did look great with them, and he finished the season with a .727 OPS, which was right around league average.
So much about all of this was confounding. Adding on to the weirdness of the season was the fact that the 37-year-old Bautista went back to his utility roots, playing every infield position but short as well as both corner outfield spots throughout the course of the season.
So, what’s next?
Currently, Joey Bats is a free agent. His name hasn’t been bouncing around the rumor mill much, but it’d be surprising if he didn’t at least get offered a minor league contract. In my opinion, he’s even worth a one-year major league deal.
Let’s take a look at some Statcast numbers for Bautista. Unfortunately, Statcast has only been in every stadium since 2015, so it won’t provide us with data from much of Bautista’s prime, but it does show us enough to put his 2018 numbers in context.
2015 was Bautista’s last really good season, and this is reflected by Statcast; his average exit velocity of 92 MPH landed him in the top 5% of the league. This, combined with his 16.7-degree average launch angle, translated into tons of barrels, and Bautista hit 40 home runs and slashed .250/.377/.536.
Conversely, 2017 was the season that made people think that Bautista was finished. Statcast also shows us this drop off; his average exit velocity fell to 88.3 MPH, which came as his K% rose to 24.8% from 15.9% in 2015. More strikeouts while hitting the ball softer is a kiss of death; it’s the worst of both worlds and was a major factor in Bautista recording the worst OPS+ of his career.
Bautista’s 2018 numbers are promising because he once again started to hit the ball hard, bringing his average exit velocity up to 90.8 MPH. His K% also rose (again) to 27.9%, but this is more excusable with the rise in exit velocity. Bautista also drew more walks to counteract this, and his OBP actually increased by 40 points from 2017.
These numbers don’t mean a ton by themselves, you don’t want to conclude too much from one season, but it does show that Bautista’s abysmal 2017 form wasn’t necessarily a permanent kiss of death. He has the potential to bounce back, even if it’s just for one or two more seasons.
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The fact that Bautista’s exit velocity hasn’t plummeted is also a good sign as far as worrying about his aging. Usually, sprint speed and exit velocity will decrease dramatically as a player starts to feel the effects of getting older, but neither has gone down dramatically for Jose.
Another weird tidbit about Bautista’s 2018 was that he was pretty unaffected by facing the shift. Last season the defense deployed the shift in 41.4% of his plate appearances, up from just 19.4% in 2017. Despite this, there was a super minimal difference in his wOBA against the shift compared to his wOBA when there was no shift. This is a great sign for a player who wants to play for another season in a league that is getting more shift heavy.
All of this, plus his decent UZR in left field and at third base, indicate that Bautista is worth signing. He probably shouldn’t be an everyday starter, but I’d argue that he’d be above average as a backup at either position. He won’t be a guy you can count on for home runs anymore, but 47% of his hits went for extra bases last year which also drives his value up.
So, with all this said, even I’ll admit that Joey Bats is far from a sure thing. His 2017 dropoff isn’t totally explainable, and it’s not impossible that he could regress again in 2019. Luckily Bautista isn’t going to be looking for a big payday as a MLB free agent; he’s going to be looking for one more season. The low price tag means that taking a “gamble” on Bautista is hardly a gamble at all, and with his potential upside, he’s worth a shot.