It has been reported that IF the Giants decide to trade their coveted ace, it would more than likely be to the Milwaukee Brewers.
That report comes via Jon Paul Morosi. Now, to save some time I will state right now that this is a move that helps the Milwaukee Brewers immensely. With San Francisco under no pressure to move Madison Bumgarner, they would need to be wowed by a deal to make a move. For an ace level arm, the southpaw will be due only 12 million in the upcoming season before hitting the free agent market.
Overall, that leaves two main questions for the Brewers: Is it worth it for only one year? And how much is too much?
The first question is a shorter answer. Yes it is worth it. The Brewers offense showed how good it could be last year, but the rotation is still pretty suspect. It seems every team in the NL Central (except the Pirates) will be vying for that top spot this season, so having a top of the line arm like MadBum in Milwaukee is more than worth it.
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How Much Is Too Much?
Depending on the fan, the line might be drawn at coveted hitter Keston Hiura. He is the Milwaukee Brewers top prospect and he can swing the bat. The 2017 first rounder is tearing up the minor league pitching he has seen. It is not crazy to think he could debut in 2019. It is also not crazy to think the Giants will demand him in any deal.
If they Brewers decide to part with their top prospect for Bumgarner, there will be some big shoes to fill. The last guy who Milwaukee traded their marquee farmhand, the guy they got in return just won MVP.
David Stearns has a history of making good deals, plus a trade for Jonathan Schoop, so his line for the Giant ace will clearly be drawn. Ideally, the Milwaukee Brewers would center the trade around Lucas Erceg. But since we live in the real world, it would likely be Hiura or Corey Ray.
Up until Domingo Santana and Keon Broxton were dealt, Ray would have been the perfect choice. However, after trading the young outfield depth there may be more of a reason to balk at dealing Ray. Though the ultimately should be all for it.
There is a high price tag here because the Brewers have no leverage. It is their job to convince the Giants to part with MadBum and that will likely not be an easy task. But, if a deal is not struck before the season, it likely will be at the trade deadline. That would be a gamble for Stearns, however.
If this deal were in my hands. I try to convince the Giants to take Ray as a centerpiece. When that fails, I give them Hiura. There is no time like the present to make a solid run at one of those banners that will fly forever.
The fun after the centerpiece is figuring out who will accompany Hiura in the trade. I would include a mid tier pitching prospect and a lower level lottery ticket. To me, that is a fair price for only a single year of one of the most talented pitching gracing the MLB right now.