Philadelphia Phillies: Wait 'till next year or 2019

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As a .300 hitter, Segura could easily bat third by April. Photo by Stephen Brashear/Getty Images. /

With February approaching, the Phillies faithful finally are freeing themselves from 2018’s doubts regarding roster construction based on the first –not only– January signing by general manager Matt Klentak.

More ups than downs:

Even though the Philadelphia Phillies had acquired a .300 hitter and a solid outfielder, fans still had a hope shortage. No more! Now, Klentak has the team within striking distance of the playoffs due to his offseason activity, and he has five weeks to negotiate for more upgrades.

IN OTHER WORDS: “Every successful person I have heard of has done the best he could with the conditions as he found them and not waited until next year for better.” – E. W. Howe

Changing on a dime, down-and-out expectations went to the sky’s the limit. And either the elation for Opening Day is long-lasting or a temporary fix for baseball junkies. But will it keep the locals happy until month’s end?

Perhaps, fans’ interpretation of the stupid-money comment was different than co-owner John S. Middleton’s meaning. And although many anticipated major expenditures in mid-December, the most expensive free agents rarely sign then. Also, the market dictates the heaviest spending.

Some naysayers had already started the wait ’till 2020, and one theory was it’s the skipper’s fault. Three weeks later, they’re not so certain of the club’s fate. In their minds, the red pinstripes had to pick up a closer, a starter and/or a slugger; but now one of those pieces is here.

Regarding a left-handed rotation arm, Dallas Keuchel will probably remain available due to his high asking price and his agent Scott Boras. Meanwhile, Klentak is exploring two trade avenues for a lefty in the hopes of avoiding another February addition to the five-man staff.

As for Manny Machado and Bryce Harper, neither is quickly accepting an offer because the first signer would set the market for the other. Currently, organizations are leery of long-term contracts and high AAVs (average annual value) on shorter pacts.

Like last winter, the market is sluggish because teams experienced paying for back-loaded commitments involving multiple campaigns. Yes, it also burns a slot on the active 25 and the 40-man roster GMs use for solid prospects. The end of an era?

McCutchen will add a glove to the defense and a bat to the lineup. Photo by Elsa/Getty Images. /

Bats and gloves:

The Phillies added Jean Segura and Andrew McCutchen to the hopefully improved production from Cesar Hernandez and Odubel Herrera. Fielding-wise, right fielder McCutchen is now the top defender patrolling the warning track, and other regulars are in more suitable positions: first base and left field.

Keep in mind, Hernandez played the final 63 games with a broken foot, and the statistical drop-off is obvious. After that injury, the Phils’ slide began, and their hobbled leadoff man was unable to rally his teammates. Expect a return to form.

Hernandez for 2018:

First half: 95 Gms., 359 AB, a .270 Avg., a .378 OBP, 8 HR, 31 RBI and a .760 OPS.
Second half: 66 Gms., 246 AB, a .228 Avg., a .324 OBP, 7 HR, 29 RBI and a .657 OPS.

Hernandez:

2018: 161 Gms., 708 PA, a .253 Avg., a .356 OBP, 15 HR, 60 RBI and a .718 OPS.
2017: 128 Gms., 577 PA, a .294 Avg., a .373 OBP, 9 HR, 34 RBI and a .793 OPS.

Herrera:

2018: 148 Gms., 597 PA, a .255 Avg., a .310 OBP, 22 HR, 71 RBI and a .730 OPS.
2017: 138 Gms., 563 PA, a .281 Avg., a .325 OBP, 14 HR, 56 RBI and a .778 OPS.

Because most clubs are concentrating on launch angles and pitches per at-bat, Hernandez and Herrera increased their home runs and RBIs with a drop in average but for different reasons: Herrera’s unusual ABs indicated a problem with Kapler’s approach. But will the skipper realize rules have exceptions?

On the defensive end, many locals had believed errors had prevented the good guys from a real shot at the NL East crown, so they wanted Alfaro to be the backup catcher. However, if he doesn’t get the reps, he won’t develop, and calls for a replacement to contend are only a short-term fix.

Even though McCutchen is now the top outfield glove here, many fans gave that short shrift and concentrated on his decline to a solid and durable regular. But right field, his position, is a major reason Klentak acquired him. Importantly, he also replaces Santana’s production. Good signing. No credit!

As for needing a .300 hitter, Klentak traded for Segura who also has some power. He launched 20 bombs in homer-friendly Chase Field for the 2016 Arizona Diamondbacks. So, he’ll love popping some souvenirs to the paying customers at the Bank.

With Robertson to share the pressure, Dominguez will excel in 2019. Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images. /

Aiming for consistency:

The Phillies have four starters for three spots and want a rotation southpaw. Of the four, Zach Eflin again showed the most promise. But deviation away from his routine affected his stellar performances in ’18: skipping a turn, a nagging ailment, or pitching through an injury until landing on the disabled list.

Despite a bad rap from his detractors, Vince Velasquez made great strides last summer. In fact, he had one debacle and one injury exit out of 15 starts from May 5 through Aug. 3: The others were 11 good and two so-so outings. And he hurled 6 1/3 innings or more in seven opportunities and six frames in three.

While three moundsmen gained a year’s experience, Jerad Eickhoff returned for one start and reminded the faithful of his solid ’16 campaign. Now, he is healthy again and he could even slot third. He also wants to make up for a disappointing ’17. Don’t count him out!

Lastly, Nick Pivetta had dominated opponents in April and May, but he probably lost his confidence in June. He looked like his 2017 self with nine poor efforts out of his last 21 from June 1 through September’s end: 42.9 percent. However, he also had eight good and four so-so performances.

Going by their roles, the Phils have three shut-down relievers with the inking of David Robertson. Firstly, Hector Neris will primarily quiet threats in the fifth-through-the-seventh innings. Based on his mid-August return, the flamethrower recorded a 2.04 ERA in 20 outings: No need for another demotion.

After dominating the majors, Seranthony Dominguez struggled in August. Basically, he had been almost unhittable after arriving, but the pressure of that success caught up to him: He had growing pains during that difficult stretch. But now he’ll, mostly, work high-leverage situations in the seventh and eighth frames.

Robertson will help Dominguez and Neris with veteran leadership. Photo by Alex Trautwig/MLB Photos via Getty images. /

Dollar solutions:

With Robertson’s signing, the Phillies have a battle-tested arm to lock down tough outs and saves in the eighth and ninth innings. Last season, he recorded a 3.23 ERA in 69 appearances with five saves and 21 holds over 69 1/3 frames. So the franchise now has three fireman for tough outs.

Although Klentak doesn’t have to move veteran relievers Neshek, Hunter or Nicasio, even half of their combined $26 million AAV would allow the exec to pursue lefty starter Keuchel. And keep in mind, his asking price will drop by January’s end. Yes, he’s a Boras client and will hold out like Arrieta did last February. .

After Jan. 1, Machado was going to decide but now he will rival Harper timewise. And even though the Phils need a left-side bat, the front office probably favors the infielder because he’s a .290-hitting slugger and more in line with their offensive approach. Ergo, best guess.

While Machado will probably sign first, Harper now has competition to be the final superstar without a contract. Apparently, management’s strategy was to acquire Machado, and Harper was the backup plan. But the red pinstripes still need a left-handed slugger in the two or four hole.

According to Roster Resource, the ’19 Phillies payroll is $132.8 million, but their AAV is $158.7 million. And the competitive-balance threshold is $206 million; so, $47.3 million is available without incurring the penalty. Therefore, the execs are able to easily fit in one huge commitment.

At this point, the missing piece is a southpaw starter, but Klentak isn’t without possibilities. The GM can swap for a portsider, or he can free up the funds by dealing one of the three veteran setup men to pick up Keuchel. An avenue or a dead end?

A healthy Hernandez will energize the 2019 Phillies. Photo by Daniel Shirey/Getty Images. /

The Numerical Bible:

This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.

New Phillies hitters:

Segura, 28.5: 144 Gms., 632 PA, a .304 Avg., a .341 OBP, a .415 SLG, a .111 ISO, a .327 BABIP, 10 HR, 63 RBI, a .755 OPS and a 3.8 fWAR.
McCutchen, 32: 155 Gms., 682 PA, a .255 Avg., a .368 OBP, a .424 SLG, a .169 ISO, a .304 BABIP, 20 HR, 65 RBI, a .792 OPS and a 2.6 fWAR.

Phillies hitters:

Hernandez, 28.5: 161 Gms., 708 PA, a .253 Avg., a .356 OBP, a .362 SLG, a .109 ISO, a .315 BABIP, 15 HR, 60 RBI, a .718 OPS and a 2.2 fWAR.
Herrera, 27: 148 Gms., 597 PA, a .255 Avg., a .310 OBP, a .420 SLG, a .165 ISO, a .290 BABIP, 22 HR, 71 RBI, a .730 OPS and a 0.9 fWAR.
Alfaro, 25.5: 108 Gms., 377 PA, a .262 Avg., a .324 OBP, a .407 SLG, a .145 ISO, a .406 BABIP, 10 HR, 37 RBI, a .731 OPS and a 2.1 fWAR.

Free-agent hitters:

Harper, 26: 159 Gms., 695 PA, a .249 Avg., a .393 OBP, a .496 SLG, a .247 ISO, a .289 BABIP, 34 HR, 100 RBI, an .889 OPS and a 3.5 fWAR.
Machado, 26.5: 162 Gms., 709 PA, a .297 Avg., a .367 OBP, a .538 SLG, a .241 ISO, a .304 BABIP, 37 HR, 107 RBI, a .905 OPS and a 6.2 fWAR.

New Phillies reliever:

Robertson, 33.5: 69 Gms., 69 2/3 Inn., a 3.23 ERA, 5 Saves, 21 Holds, a 2.97 FIP, a 3.09 xFIP, a 2.88 SIERA, a 1.5 fWAR and a 1.03 WHIP.

Phillies relievers:

Dominguez, 24: 53 Gms., 58 Inn., a 2.95 ERA, 16 Saves, 14 Holds, 4 BS, a 2.85 FIP, a 3.04 xFIP, a 2.81 SIERA, a 1.3 fWAR and a 0.93 WHIP.
Neris, 29.5: 53 Gms., 47 2/3 Inn., a 5.10 ERA, 11 Saves, 4 Holds, 3 BS, a 4.04 FIP, a 2.71 xFIP, a 2.28 SIERA, a 0.2 fWAR and a 1.30 WHIP.

Phillies starters:

Eflin, 24.5: 24 Gms., 128 Inn., 11-8, a 4.36 ERA, a 3.80 FIP, a 4.02 xFIP, a 4.02 SIERA, a 2.2 fWAR and a 1.30 WHIP.
Velasquez, 26.5: 31 Gms. (1 relief), 146 2/3 Inn., 9-12, a 4.85 ERA, a 3.75 FIP, a 4.12 xFIP, a 4.00 SIERA, a 2.6 fWAR and a 1.34 WHIP.
Pivetta, almost 26: 33 Gms. (1 relief), 164 Inn., 7-14, a 4.77 ERA, a 3.80 FIP, a 3.42 xFIP, a 3.51 SIERA, a 2.8 fWAR and a 1.30 WHIP.
Eickhoff, 28.5: 3 Gms. (2 relief), 5 1/3 Inn., 0-1, a 6.75 ERA, a 1.47 FIP, a 0.89 xFIP, a 1.42 SIERA, a 0.2 fWAR and a 1.88 WHIP.

Free-agent starter:

Keuchel, 31: 34 Gms., 204 2/3 Inn., 12-11, a 3.74 ERA, a 3.69 FIP, a 3.84 xFIP, a 4.15 SIERA, a 3.6 fWAR and a 1.31 WHIP.

Next. Phillies: NL East's 4-way battle in 2019. dark

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