2019 MLB Postseason: Uneasy lies the crown
Chicago Cubs
Hamstrung by previously made lone-term deals, the Cubs are almost certain to enter 2019 without significant roster upgrades for the first time since Theo Epstein’s arrival. They’re already on the hook for more than $209 million – putting them over the $207 million luxury tax threshold – and since most of those deals continue for at least one or two more seasons, Chicago’s payroll inflexibility isn’t going away any time soon.
So the Cubs are stuck with the team they’ve got, and Cubs fans hope they like it.
That team won 95 games in 2018, so the situation is hardly desperate. Still, the starting lineup is littered with under-achievers. Catcher Willson Contreras, shortstop Addison Russell, third baseman Kris Bryant, and outfielder Ian Happ all had sub-par 2018s. On the mound, starter Yu Darvish and closer Brandon Morrow both produced little during injury-plagued seasons, and starter Tyler Chatwood was simply awful.
Complicating the situation is the uncertainty of Russell’s situation at shortstop. He’ll sit out the season’s first 40 games while serving a suspension for domestic violence…and then what?
If most or all of those guys return to something approaching their projected forms, the Cubs will be OK. But if several or most don’t, Chicago will have major gaps to plug with almost no viable means of doing so. Given the off-season improvements made by NL Central rivals – notably St. Louis and Cincinnati – that could trigger an abrupt fall from grace on the North Side.
New York Yankees
The Yankees’ assets are imposing, both physically and productively. They’ve got Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Hicks for the middle of the order, they’ve added James Paxton to a rotation already headed by Luis Severino, and they’ve got all those bullpen arms.
But consider a few what-ifs.
What if Gary Sanchez turns out to be the ham-handed, .186 hitting receiver he was in 2018 rather than the 33-homer phenom he was in 201?. The Yanks are all-in on Sanchez; their backup is Austin Romine.
What if Troy Tulowitzki can’t make it back to full-time duty at shortstop? Didi Gregorius won’t be healthy until mid-season, a long time or a contender to wait for a reliable shortstop.
What if the 2019 version of Gleyber Torres’ is more like the second half of his 2018 than the first half? As a rookie, Torres batted .271 with a .340 on base average and .480 slugging average. But from Aug. 1 on, the league caught up with Torres. His slash line fell to .254/.326/.420. He was, in other words, basically average for the season’s final two months.
What if Luke Voit is Luke Voit? The Yankees acquired Voit from St. Louis and have plugged him in as their full-time first baseman. They look at his 6-3, 225 pound frame and see another slugger. There’s no disputing that Voit has power potential; he hit 14 home runs in 39 games with New York in 2018. But there’s also no disputing that in St. Louis, Voit failed to win a full-time job on a team that lacked a true first baseman and needed power. Aside from that 40-game stretch in New York, Voit’s career major league slash line is .240/.291/.432. Can Yankee Stadium make that much difference?
What if the rotation doesn’t hold up. C.C. Sabathia dealt with off-season heart issues, James Paxton is notorious for not staying healthy, and the Yanks think so little of Sony Gray they’ve spent the off-season trying to off-load him – unsuccessfully.
Obviously, if New York lands Manny Machado, several of their infield question marks are solved. But if not, just enough question marks linger to make 2019 potentially interesting in the Bronx.
Cleveland Indians
Of all teams, the Indians are probably viewed as the most likely playoff returnees. Why? Just look at the rest of the AL Central, a division Cleveland won by 13 games last year.
There are, however, enough concerns to worry Indians fans.
Start with the outfield, a weakness last year and one the Indians believe they’ve addressed, largely by reshuffling their existing cast. Have they?
The Indians acquired Leonys Martin from Detroit at the July deadline and then re-signed him to play center field. Since Martin is a career .255 batter with neither on base nor power credentials to offset an 84 OPS+, they are betting on the come. They project Jordan Luplow, who they picked up from Pittsburgh, to develop into their regular left fielder. The early evidence, a .194/.274/.371 major league slash line in limited duty, is at best inconclusive.
In right they’re counting on Tyler Naquin, a system product, to become the star they’ve always seen him as. In the equivalent of one full big league season, Naquin’s numbers are decent but not spectacular, a .280 average with 17 home runs and 67 RBIs.
Because they have not been able to dump Jason Kipnis, they’re moving Jose Ramirez back to third and Kipnis to second. That decision cost Cleveland the services of Yandy Diaz, a hot third base prospect shipped to Tampa Bay. Kipnis, who will turn 32 shortly after opening day, hasn’t produced since the 2016 World Series run. He’s a .263 hitter, which sounds decent until you consider that his career average has fallen nine points in the past two seasons alone.
For the moment, Cleveland is committed to Roberto Perez as the team’s starting catcher. Perez is a defensive whiz with a great arm. But he’s also a career .205 hitter who’s never played 80 games in a season.
Given their rotation, the Indians can probably survive all that offensive uncertainty. But if new Minnesota Twins manager Rocco Baldelli can revive Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano, it’s not out of the question that the Twins could make things tight in Cleveland.
Milwaukee Brewers
The Brewers were a team on the ascendency in 2018, and many see them as an NL Central favorite entering 2019. That’s understandable; any team with an outfield of Yelich, Cain and Braun starts with a strong nucleus.
Yet the Brewers have been eerily quiet this off-season. Thus far they have failed to address what would appear to be significant gaps in their rotation, apparently choosing to rely on the growth and development of erstwhile relievers Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes to fill starting spots.
Milwaukee’s only reliable returning starter is Jhoulys Chacin, who has never been listed in anybody’s ranking of the game’s best aces. Beyond those three, they appear to be counting on the return to health of Jimmy Nelson, who missed all of 2018 with a shoulder injury, plus good seasons from Zach Davies and Chase Anderson.
The Brewers could fortify their rotation by working out a rumored trade with the Giants that would bring Madison Bumgarner. That, however, has not yet happened. It’s also possible, of course, that Woodruff and Burnes blossom into stars, justifying all of Milwaukee’s faith in them. That’s Plan A.
But Plan B is more problematic. It involves leaning on a talented bullpen tasked with picking up the innings left behind by that dicey rotation. Among them, Chacin, Anderson, Woodruff, Burrus, Davies, Corey Knebel, Josh Hader and Jeremy Jeffress pitched about 725 innings in 2018. There are approximately 1,450 innings in a typical major league season. Even granting increased workloads for Woodruff and Burnes plus a healthy return from Nelson, who pitches the other 725?
Oakland A’s
In Matt Olson, Marcus Semien, Matt Chapman, Kris Davis and Stephen Piscotty, the A’s have a fascinating talent base. It carried them to an imposing 97 victories in 2018. Is it enough to overcome the very evident pitching problems?
As of this point in the off-season, Oakland’s official depth chart lists four starters: Sean Manaea, Andrew Triggs, Mike Fiers and Paul Blackburn. The reference to Manaea is pure fantasy: he had shoulder surgery in September and is not expected back until late in 2019, if at all.
In 2018, Triggs, Fiers and Blackburn went a combined 17-12 in 45 starts embracing a total of 241 innings, amassing a 4.26 ERA along the way. What part of that sounds like a solution to rotation issues?
It is true that Oakland schlepped to 97 wins last year on the strength of a rotation that, by season’s end, featured names not much more prominent than those. But they also had Manaea for 27 starts. Frankie Montas for 11, Daniel Mengden for 17 and Kendall Graveman for 7. All of the above are either hurt, gone or both.
Like Milwaukee, Oakland does enter 2019 with a reliable bullpen led by Blake Treinen and also featuring Lou Trivino, Joakim Soria, Fernando Rodney and Ryan Buchter. That should hold things down from the seventh inning on. The A’s challenge, then, will be to figure out how to give Chapman, Olson and the gang enough time to build a lead that’s worth having a good bullpen to protect.
Atlanta Braves
The question isn’t so much the Braves as it is the rest of the division.
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Even assuming they don’t re-sign Bryce Harper, the Washington Nationals, eight games behind Atlanta in 2018, are still talented. The Philadelphia Phillies, who finished 10 games back, may add Harper and/or Manny Machado, signings which in combination could go a long way toward making up the difference. They’ve already added reliever David Robertson, shortstop Jean Segura, and outfielder Andrew McCutchen. The New York Mets have maintained an acquisitional drumbeat all winter, picking up Robinson Cano to play second, Edwin Diaz to close, Jeurys Familia to set up, and Wilson Ramos to catch,
In the face of all that activity by their competitors, the Braves haven’t exactly been sitting around. They signed Josh Donaldson to play third base and Brian McCann to catch. Their young core, meanwhile, will presumably only improve with age. So Atlanta’s problem has more to do with the improved division than with any internal weaknesses.
The Braves can take heart in one statistic. The difference between their runs scored and runs allowed in 2018 should have yielded a 92-70 record; the Braves actually went 90-72. Translation: If anything, they were unlucky, so a natural retreat isn’t predictable by the numbers.
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