Minnesota Twins: Remaining moves to complete the offseason

The Minnesota Twins have been active this offseason but here are more moves they can make to make a step towards true competitor in 2019.

The Minnesota Twins have been one of the more active teams in baseball this offseason as they have made a lot of changes to their roster early on. Now other teams like the Washington Nationals and New York Mets are getting a lot more attention for their offseasons as they drive the arms race in the NL East. Even within the Twins own division, the Chicago White Sox are drawing a lot of attention as they seem to be preparing to lure Manny Machado to the South Side.

That doesn’t mean that the Twins moves this offseason should be overlooked. Early on they shored up first base which had been left vacant after the retirement of Joe Mauer. C.J. Cron was claimed and agreed to a 1 year, $4.8 million contract. If Cron is able to replicate his 2.1 fWAR that will be an improvement over Joe Mauer’s 1.0 fWAR.

Jonathan Schoop‘s addition is a bit of a gamble as we don’t know if the second baseman will be the 2018 version of himself or the 2017 version. If he is the 2017 version the Twins just found themselves another strong hitting second baseman like Brian Dozier who had filled that role the last several seasons.

To this point, the move that defines the Twins offseason is the signing of veteran DH Nelson Cruz. The Twins have been making it sound like Cruz may be more than a DH, but with the outfielders on the Twins roster, it would be crazy to put the 38-year-old in the outfield defensively. His power and his leadership should both have quite the rippling impact through the Twins roster.

The last move the Twins have reportedly made is the signing of relief pitcher Blake Parker who was DFA’d earlier this offseason by the Los Angeles Angels. What has been interesting about this move is even though it was announced we are still awaiting any official announcement from the team. If the move is completed, Parker joins a group of relievers that have potential and some decent experience as closers or set up men in major league bullpens.

While the Twins have been active they still likely have about $30 million left in payroll room before they match their 2018 payroll amount. After settling with all eight of their arbitration eligible players the Twins sit at $96 million in payroll according to Aaron Gleeman’s figures. That leaves plenty of financial room for potential moves by the Twins. Which in beat reporter Dan Hayes’ opinion they may have one or two moves left (specifically for pitchers) to make before breaking camp.

Let’s explore some moves the Twins can or maybe even should make through the rest of the offseason before reporting to Spring Training.

Bullpen Help

All things considered, the Twins actually have a pretty good core of bullpen arms. If they had to start 2018 with the group they have it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world but it also wouldn’t seem to have them on track to be doing all they can do to supplant the Cleveland Indians in the AL Central as division champions.

Parker has 24 career saves under his belt and in 2017 put together a season with a 2.54 ERA, 2.71 FIP, and an 11.5 K/9. Taylor Rogers has developed into one of the better left-handed relievers in baseball after an unreal second half in which he posted a 0.94 ERA over 28.2 innings and a 11.0 K/9. Then there are the likes of veteran Addison Reed, Trevor May, and Trevor Hildenberger who all have experience closing out games as well.

That said the Twins are missing that one reliever to hand the ball over to as either a closer or that fireman type reliever. Reed was supposed to be that guy but there are questions surrounding him after his injury plagued 2018 so the Twins could still benefit from adding another reliever like that. Craig Kimbrel or Adam Ottavino would certainly fit that role, but both are looking for a big payday and will also likely choose a more certain contender than the Twins.

That doesn’t mean the cupboard is bare. The Twins have already been linked to Cody Allen who makes a lot of sense for the Twins if he could bounce back. Brad Brach is another name in that next tier of relievers that could make a lot of sense for the Twins after he finished 2018 with some strong innings for the Atlanta Braves.

Who may in many ways make the most sense for the Twins is left-hander Justin Wilson. He would provide another solid left-handed setup option next to Rogers. Even though Wilson hasn’t been quite as dominant in his past two seasons as earlier in his career he has still been a good reliever. In 2018 the lefty had a 29.2 K%, an 11.36 K/9, and an 11.5% swinging strike rate with the Chicago Cubs.

Wilson would be an upgrade over both Gabriel Moya and Andrew Vasquez who are likely the two vying for the second left-hander role in the Twins bullpen. Moya has also been employed as an “opener” leaving him more available for that role if the Twins added Wilson.

Adding a Veteran Starter

The Twins front office has stated they feel confident with 4/5 of their rotation spots as they look forward to the start of 2019. They are likely referring to Jose Berrios, Kyle Gibson, Jake Odorizzi, and Michael Pineda as he returns from missing 2018 due to Tommy John surgery.

If the Twins do not add any other starters that would leave Stephen Gonsalves, Fernando Romero (if he doesn’t move to a relief role), Adalberto Mejia, and Kohl Stewart among a group of young arms battling for that final rotation spot. That is unless the Twins decided to go out and find a veteran to fill that role and use some of that remaining payroll space.

Dallas Keuchel is the big fish remaining in the free agent starter market. A lot of big spenders and contenders are going after Keuchel at this point in the offseason. There are a lot of things to like about the former Cy-Young award winner as he has plenty of experience, can help keep the ball in the grass with his 53.7% ground ball rate in 2018 and 66.8% in 2017.

Another pitcher the Twins could turn to as a veteran presence in the starting rotation would be Gio Gonzalez. Gonzalez has spent the last several seasons with the Washington Nationals and closed out 2018 with the Milwaukee Brewers. Over the whole of 2018, he logged 171.0 innings with a 4.21 ERA and in his time with Brewers pitched 25.1 innings and a 2.13 ERA through the final part of 2018.

At first blush, Keuchel seems like a clearly better pitcher than Gonzalez. Until I saw this stat from 2018. Gonzalez’s ERA+ was 100 between the Brewers and Nationals. Meanwhile, Keuchel finished 2018 with a 108 ERA+. The divide between Gonzalez and Keuchel may not be as large as it seems, but the price tag certainly will be.

Sign some Extensions

A good chunk of the reason that the Twins payroll is so low is because they are set to start a lot of young players who are still either pre-arbitration or in their arbitration years. As of right now, the only player with any guaranteed money to count against the Twins 2020 payroll is Nelson Cruz’s option for $12 million.

One way the Twins could begin to use some of that $30 million gap between 2018’s payroll and where it currently stands for 2019 is to lock up some of their young talent long term. Part of the problem is some of those players haven’t proved what sort of player they will be with any consistency. Still, if the Twins front office wants to get ahead of some arbitration and free agent raises those players may command, signing extensions now could prove to be a smart move.

Jose Berrios tops this list of extension candidates. Out of all the young players who made up the most recent class of hyped prospects he has been the one to produce to most regularly as an MLB player. Berrios still has plenty of room to grow but his 192.1 innings, 3.84 ERA, and 9.45 K/9 was a step in the right direction in 2018.

After seeing Jacob deGrom get $17 million in arbitration it may be hard to convince Berrios and his agent to sign an extension. Doesn’t mean the Twins shouldn’t still try to see if they can work something out.

Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton are the next names to pop up, but with their struggles it would be hard to feel comfortable signing that extension or convincing the players to sign as they would be selling low on themselves. Eddie Rosario could be worth considering as his 2017 and 2018 were both solid seasons.

Kyle Gibson and Jake Odorizzi also represent a pair of pitchers worth extending. Gibson is the pitcher fans and the front office alike would likely be more excited about extending as he has clearly established himself as the number 2 starter in the Twins rotation.

Odorizzi comes with some frustrations but can still produce. With the Twins rotation largely free to walk in free agency next offseason (Gibson, Odorizzi, Michael Pineda) it may be worth it to have Odorizzi locked up for 2020.