Philadelphia Phillies emerge as favorites for Bryce Harper

The Philadelphia Phillies have emerged as the frontrunners for Bryce Harper’s services, but they are not his only suitor.

The talk of Bryce Harper’s free agency has been going on for ages. Here is a Washington Post article from 2015 that practically laments Harper leaving the Washington Nationals more than three years before he even hit the open market.

Now that Harper’s free agency is actually here, it almost feels anti-climactic. It’s reminiscent of the alleged Doomsday once the Mayan calendar ended on December 21, 2012. There was so much discussion (and even a major motion picture!) about the “apocalypse” that once the day actually came, the end of the world had been so talked about so much that it really wasn’t a big a deal when it, well, didn’t happen.

When the Washington Post published that article in 2015, Harper was in the midst of an MVP season, and those in the national media were talking about Harper’s upcoming departure from Washington as if it were the end of the world for the Nationals. While Harper has been an elite player practically his entire young career, he hasn’t posted a season anywhere near his incredible 2015, when he posted a ludicrous .330/.460/.649 line, good for a 9.3 WAR according to Fangraphs.

In 2018, Harper posted a 3.5 fWAR, due to decreased (but still great) offensive numbers and very poor defensive ratings. 3.5 WAR is nothing to scoff at, but it certainly doesn’t scream “superstar.” Harper’s inability to maintain his truly elite performance and the fact that owners seem much more hesitant to spend on free agents suggest that the talk of a $500 million contract for Harper seems out of the question, and his list of suitors seems smaller than one might have expected.

But even so, Harper is just 26, a very good player, and he’s going to end up with a large sum of money. Let’s take a look at the current favorites to sign Bryce Harper.

Philadelphia Phillies

On Sunday, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported that the Philadelphia Phillies were “clear-cut favorites” to land Harper after a lengthy meeting with him in Las Vegas.

The Phillies make perfect sense on paper for Harper. First off, the Phillies are ready to compete right now. The Phillies were in contention for the NL East title through most of the 2018 season, although they finished with an 80-82 record after a difficult end to the season. With a young team, the Phillies are entering their window of contention, and adding a player like Harper would certainly make them a better team in the upcoming years.

Another benefit of the Phillies having a young team is that they aren’t spending too much money. Earlier in the offseason, Phillies owner John Middleton was quoted as saying “We’re going into this expecting to spend money and maybe even be a little bit stupid about it.” While not explicitly saying it, Middleton’s comments seem to suggest that they will go after Harper and/or Manny Machado.

The Phillies are certainly a prime suitor for Machado, and it seems unlikely that they will sign both Harper AND Machado, but it is possible. If the Phillies do land Machado, the odds that Harper will end up in Philadelphia will drop. But as of now, the Phillies look like the favorites to land Bryce Harper.

Odds that the Phillies get Harper: 50%

Chicago White Sox

Another team that has been rumored for both Harper and Machado is the Chicago White Sox.

In Nightengale’s report, he states that the White Sox have yet to offer a contract to Harper, but they certainly have interest. The most likely scenario that Harper lands in the South Side of Chicago is if the Phillies end up landing Machado.

While every team could make a spot for a player of Harper’s caliber, the White Sox certainly have a black hole in the outfield. In 2018, White Sox outfielders accumulated -1.2 fWAR, the worst mark in MLB. It’s extremely difficult to envision a scenario that Harper wouldn’t improve the White Sox outfield corps in 2019 and beyond.

The White Sox, like the Phillies, have money to spend, but it’s less clear that the Sox are about to enter a period of contention. After the 2016 season, the White Sox traded Chris Sale and Adam Eaton for a large group of prospects that looked ready to contribute sooner rather than later. After losing 95 games in 2017, the White Sox looked to improve in 2018, but with recently acquired prospects Yoan Moncada and Lucas Giolito playing below expectations, the Sox ended up losing 100 games.

It’s not clear how much Harper cares about winning, but if he does, the White Sox would certainly be a risky choice for him.

Odds that the White Sox get Harper: 20%

Washington Nationals

Nightengale’s report seems pessimistic about Harper returning to the Nationals, stating that “Nationals executives are now calling a reunion with Harper a “long shot.’’”

With the Nationals giving starting pitcher Patrick Corbin $140 million this offseason and the upcoming free agency of Anthony Rendon, it seems like the Nats are willing to move on from Bryce Harper.

But it would be foolish to count out the Nationals quite yet. First off, they have been willing to give out big money to players in the past like Corbin, Max Scherzer, and Stephen Strasburg. Granted, Harper is going to make more money than any of those players, but the Nationals are willing to open their pocketbook when they think it would improve their team. Also, there’s no way to know how much Harper’s comfort in Washington will play into his decision in free agency.

A player’s incumbent team always seems to have a bit of an advantage over the other 29 teams in free agency. While Harper seems to have settled down in his hometown of Las Vegas, there are likely relationships and foundations that he has set in our nation’s capital. If something changes in the market for Harper, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see the Nationals swoop in.

Odds that the Nationals get Harper: 10%

New York Yankees

Perhaps the most exciting part of Harper’s free agency is the end of the Harper-to-the-Yankees talk.

As a high schooler, when asked about his future goals by Sports Illustrated, Harper answered, “Be in the Hall of Fame, definitely. Play in Yankee Stadium. Play in the pinstripes. Be considered the greatest baseball player who ever lived. I can’t wait.” That article was published in 2009.

It seems insane that there have been rumors about a 26-year-old going to a certain team for a decade, but here we are. However, this offseason, it seems like the Yankees are pretty tepid in their pursuit of Harper. Even so, there’s always a chance that the most valuable franchise in baseball decides to spend on, perhaps, the most famous player in the game.

The Yankees do have a spectacular outfield corps of Aaron Judge, Aaron Hicks, and Giancarlo Stanton, but since they have the designated hitter to play with, they could certainly fit a player like Harper into their everyday lineup. It’s a huge longshot that Harper will end up realizing his dream of playing in pinstripes this offseason, but if his long-term options end up falling aparts, it’s conceivable to think that the Yankees could offer him a short-term deal with a big annual salary.

Odds that the Yankees get Harper: 5%

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers are in a very similar position as the Yankees in the Bryce Harper sweepstakes.

The Dodgers are well-positioned to contend now and into the future, as their depth and star power has led them to six consecutive NL West titles and their success shows no sign of slowing down.

When any high-profile free agent or trade target is available, there is always speculation that the Dodgers will be involved, as they have a ton of money at their disposal. But despite their big wallets, the Dodgers have seemed to shy away from big free agents in recent years. They let Zack Greinke go to the Arizona Diamondbacks and weren’t too interested in taking on Giancarlo Stanton’s contract when the Miami Marlins were shopping him around.

But, like every single team in baseball, Harper would make the Dodgers a better team. Losing in the World Series the last two years, it might be time for the Dodgers to make a big move like signing Harper. Like the Yankees, the most likely scenario that Harper ends up in Los Angeles is if he settles for a short-term contract, which still seems pretty unlikely at this point in time.

Odds that the Dodgers get Harper: 5%