2019 Philadelphia Phillies: Trading veteran bullpen loose ends before spring training

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Despite a solid second half, the Phillies want to move Hunter’s contract because they have an overcrowded bullpen. Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images. /

Having three veteran setup men, the Phillies can move up to $24.5 million of payroll, and general manager Matt Klentak has the luxury to deal from a position of adequate strength with multiple possibilities.

Waiting on the market:

With plan in hand, the Philadelphia Phillies front office is on target to assemble 2019’s relief corps. So, while armchair GMs imagine major acquisitions, the exec must execute a successful strategy to continue in only one of 30 MLB jobs, even though some locals constantly want his dismissal.

IN OTHER WORDS: “Sometimes you make the right decision; sometimes you make the decision right.” – Phil McGraw

With four starters for three rotation slots, the red pinstripes have one potential long man and 11 firemen with a realistic shot for the eight pen seats. Barring any trades, the team also has three hurlers they can option to the Triple-A Lehigh Valley IronPigs.

Although Klentak has six arms for the five-man staff, he might not carry a long reliever due to a capable bullpen. However, the GM could have the sixth starter pitch the first half with Lehigh Valley and go with a six-man rotation after the All-Star break. That was successful for 2018’s Atlanta Braves.

As for setup men, Klentak has three he could move as salary dumps, complete or partial; but the market will dictate the time frame. So, when another organization concludes the Phils’ firemen are better than remaining free agents or a bargain if the decision-maker eats some dollars, they will negotiate.

Regarding the two southpaw relievers the franchise acquired, Klentak doesn’t want to depend solely on one to be effective and healthy for the entire 162. To illustrate, the exec had inked Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter last year, but Neshek began ’18 on the disabled list. Ergo, a backup plan.

If Klentak cannot deal Neshek, Hunter and/or Juan Nicasio, he has three firemen he can option to the Allentown affiliate. However, two are on their third and final option ending April 8. But if the parent club needs them after that date, they will be here to stay or put on waivers: Other teams can then claim them. .

Presently, the market for closers is winding down, and a handful of setup men are under consideration. Taking on salary, though, isn’t much different than signing a free agent and may, in some cases, be cheaper. Basically, organizations have three-to-five effective relievers, so some will still have a need.

Because Arano has three options, he may have to fight for a bullpen seat in Clearwater. Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images. /

Battle in limbo:

The rule of thumb for firemen is four decent appearances out of five (80 percent). And while David Robertson, Seranthony Dominguez and Hector Neris will handle the high-leverage situations, five other relievers will fill out the pen. Moreover, three have options: James Pazos, Edubray Ramos and Victor Arano.

Lefty Jose Alvarez will probably fill one of the two spots. His four-seam fastball averages 91.9 mph, and he has a slider, sinker and changeup. Last summer, he recorded a 2.71 ERA over 63 innings and had good or so-so outings at an acceptable 80 percent exactly.

Barring a dreadful March, Adam Morgan with no options remaining has earned his relief corps slot over the last two campaigns. In 2018, he had a 3.83 ERA with ERA estimators between 3.77 and 3.81 plus an acceptable 76.1 percent in good and so-so performances.

Even though Pazos had a 2.88 ERA and decent appearances at an 80 percent rate, he could be battling for a spot with Alvarez. He’s on his third option until April 8, so a roster problem could determine his fate. Primarily, he mostly fires a four-seam heater averaging 93.8 mph but occasionally twirls a slider (8.2 percent).

Hard-throwing Ramos is also on his third option until April 8 and might be an IronPig again due to an overcrowded pitching staff. Last season, he fashioned a 2.32 ERA and had decent outings at an 88.6 percent rate. But he’ll again have to earn a spot in the pen.

While Arano was effective 80 percent of the time and recorded a 2.73 ERA, he still has all of his options remaining. So, he’ll be in the hunt, but like others he’ll be competing for a slot because the Phillies added four relievers. Like Pazos and Ramos, his fate depends more on an available spot than March’s showing.

Neshek is available, but the Phillies will require a solid offer. Photo by Mitchell Layton/Getty Images. /

Setting up elsewhere:

Even though Neshek and Hunter had decent 2018s, moving their financial commitments would expand Klentak’s opportunities. And those dollars could go to a portside starter before spring training. In July, though, Madison Bumgarner, Robbie Ray and Mike Minor will probably be available.

Although he struggled through 2018, Nicasio still has $9 million for 2019 that he had earned with a stellar 2017: a career year. Basically, the red pinstripes will cut him and eat his contract minus the MLB minimum another GM will gladly pay to take a flier on him. A solid March notwithstanding!

Regarding Hunter, the Phils may be able to move $6 million and could absorb $3 million of their 2019 commitment. In ’18, he produced a 3.80 ERA in 64 frames and was effective in 72.3 percent of his appearances. Therefore, Klentak should be able to find an interested franchise.

On the other hand, swapping Neshek won’t be difficult. He has $6.5 million left for 2019 and recorded a 2.59 ERA with 86.7 percent effectiveness. That stated, Klentak might not trade him as a straight salary dump because he’s the best of the three vets.

The Phillies can unload $6.5 million (Neshek), $6 million (Hunter) and $0.5 million (Nicasio) for $13 million of the tallied $24.5 million. And keep in mind, Keuchel will be a late signing, so Klentak may have the funds to acquire the southpaw when his asking price becomes reasonable.

While the extra starter could be a long man, Klentak probably won’t have that luxury and won’t carry Nicasio either. But he’ll still have two firemen too many. So, unless the GM can deal two relievers, what can he expect in late March? Taxing decisions!

After a dismal 2018, Nicasio will probably be a salary dump. Photo by John Cordes/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. /

The Numerical Bible:

This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.

Phillies statistical goal of 80 percent:

Dominguez: 43 good, 1 so-so and 1 blowup out of 53 total for 83.0%
Neris: 38 good, 2 so-so and 4 blowups out of 53 total for 75.5%
Neshek: 24 good, 2 so-so and 1 blowup out of 30 total for 86.7%
Hunter: 40 good, 7 so-so and 0 blowups out of 65 total for 72.3%
Ramos: 38 good, 8 so-so and 1 blowup out of 52 total for 88.5%
Morgan: 42 good, 9 so-so and 1 blowup out of 67 total for 76.1%
Arano: 48 good, 7 so-so and 2 blowups out of 60 total for 80.0%

Phillies statistical goal for new relievers of 80 percent:

Robertson: 54 good, 0 so-so and 2 blowups out of 69 total for 78.3%
Pazos: 44 good, 4 so-so and 1 blowup out of 60 total for 80.0%
Alvarez: 58 good, 3 so-so and 2 blowups out of 76 total for 80.3%
Nicasio: 28 good, 2 so-so and 3 blowups out of 65 total for 65.2%
A blowup is 4 ER with less than 2 innings or 3 ER with less than 1 inning.
Bad outings were the numerical difference.

New Phillies relievers:

Robertson, 33.5: 69 Gms., 69 2/3 Inn., a 3.23 ERA, 5 Saves, 21 Holds, a 2.97 FIP, a 3.09 xFIP, a 2.88 SIERA, a 1.5 fWAR and a 1.03 WHIP.
Pazos, 27.5: 60 Gms., 50 Inn., a 2.88 ERA, 19 Holds, a 3.60 FIP, a 4.15 xFIP, a 3.75 SIERA, a 0.5 fWAR and a 1.24 WHIP.
Alvarez, 29.5: 76 Gms., 63 Inn., a 2.71 ERA, 14 Holds, a 3.05 FIP, a 3.98 xFIP, a 3.78 SIERA, a 1.2 fWAR and a 1.16 WHIP.
Nicasio, 32: 46 Gms., 42 Inn., a 6.00 ERA, 19 Holds, a 2.99 FIP, a 3.18 xFIP, a 2.60 SIERA, a 0.8 fWAR and a 1.38 WHIP.

Phillies relievers:

Dominguez, 24: 53 Gms., 58 Inn., a 2.95 ERA, 16 Saves, 14 Holds, 4 BS, a 2.85 FIP, a 3.04 xFIP, a 2.81 SIERA, a 1.3 fWAR and a 0.93 WHIP.
Neris, 29.5: 53 Gms., 47 2/3 Inn., a 5.10 ERA, 11 Saves, 4 Holds, 3 BS, a 4.04 FIP, a 2.71 xFIP, a 2.28 SIERA, a 0.2 fWAR and a 1.30 WHIP.
Neshek, 38: 30 Gms., 24 1/3 Inn., a 2.59 ERA, 5 Saves, 6 Holds, 1 BS, a 3.61 FIP, a 4.99 xFIP, a 4.51 SIERA, a 0.3 fWAR and a 1.15 WHIP.
Hunter, 32.5: 65 Gms., 64 Inn., a 3.80 ERA, 4 Saves, 25 Holds, 1 BS, a 3.63 FIP, a 4.01 xFIP, a 3.69 SIERA, a 0.7 fWAR and a 1.25 WHIP.
Arano, almost 24: 60 Gms., 59 1/3 Inn., a 2.73 ERA, 3 Saves, 10 Holds, a 3.36 FIP, a 3.94 xFIP, a 3.48 SIERA, a 0.8 fWAR and a 1.20 WHIP.
Ramos, 26: 52 Gms., 42 2/3 Inn., a 2.32 ERA, 1 Save, 12 Holds, a 3.54 FIP, a 4.37 xFIP, a 3.79 SIERA, a 0.5 fWAR and a 1.15 WHIP.
Morgan, almost 29: 67 Gms., 49 1/3 Inn., a 3.83 ERA, 1 Save, 14 Holds, a 3.79 FIP, a 3.81 xFIP, a 3.77 SIERA, a 0.4 fWAR and a 1.44 WHIP.

Phillies possible long men:

Eflin, 24.5: 24 Gms., 128 Inn., 11-8, a 4.36 ERA, a 3.80 FIP, a 4.02 xFIP, a 4.02 SIERA, a 2.2 fWAR and a 1.30 WHIP.
Velasquez, 26.5: 31 Gms. (1 relief), 146 2/3 Inn., 9-12, a 4.85 ERA, a 3.75 FIP, a 4.12 xFIP, a 4.00 SIERA, a 2.6 fWAR and a 1.34 WHIP.
Pivetta, almost 26: 33 Gms. (1 relief), 164 Inn., 7-14, a 4.77 ERA, a 3.80 FIP, a 3.42 xFIP, a 3.51 SIERA, a 2.8 fWAR and a 1.30 WHIP.
Eickhoff, 28.5: 3 Gms. (2 relief), 5 1/3 Inn., 0-1, a 6.75 ERA, a 1.47 FIP, a 0.89 xFIP, a 1.42 SIERA, a 0.2 fWAR and a 1.88 WHIP.

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