Chicago Cubs could see significant improvement from within

The Chicago Cubs don’t need an infusion of new blood; they need several of their current players to return to their usual performance patterns

Chicago Cubs fans are upset about their favorite team’s lack of activity over the winter. They see the Cardinals add Paul Goldschmidt, they see the Brewers add Yasmani Grandal, they see the Reds acquire Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp, and they wonder whether third place (or lower) is only one long summer away.

It’s an understandable fear. But it is not the only plausible forecast on the North Side for 2019. How would Chicago Cubs fans feel about their team’s prospects if the team suddenly acquired a pair of middle-of-the-order hitters, both with plus-.900 OPS, two starters, both with an ERA+ between 125 and 150, a closer coming off a 1.47 ERA and 194 ERA+, and a backstop with an .850 OPS.

Would those acquisitions set Wrigleyville afire with visions of invincibility? Yes, and here’s the kicker: The Cubs don’t have to “acquire” any of those players because they’re all already on their roster.  The sluggers are Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant, the starters are Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendriks, the closer is Brandon Morrow and the catcher is Willson Contreras.

The catch, of course, is that in each case the players’ stat lines were compiled prior to 2018. Each of those players, for one reason or another, slumped last year, so much so that the real wonder is that the Chicago Cubs still won 95 games and reached the post-season.

If in 2019 those players, only one of whom (Morrow) will be older than 32, merely return to their previously established performance levels, the Cubs will have “acquired” all of that infusion of talent without making a single roster move.

Here’s a more detailed look at how the Cubs hope to upgrade both their every-day lineup and their pitching staff with a team that, on the surface anyway, is basically the status quo version of 2018.

Kris Bryant

An injured shoulder limited Bryant to a career-low 102 games last year. It also severely reduced his power. Prior to suffering the mid-June injury, he was pretty much his usual self, having hit nine home runs, driven in 36, and carrying a .280/.362/.481 slash line. That’s off some, but not a lot, from the .287/.388/.526 slash line he generated in his first three seasons,

But in the 36 games he played following his first trip to the disabled list, Bryant produced just four homers, just 16 RBIs, and a .256/.331/.416 slash line. The shoulder injury, in short, reduced him to the level of an average major leaguer…and a part-time one at that.

His WAR, which had averaged 6.6 in his first three seasons, dropped to 1.9 in 2018

Assuming Bryant is fully recovered from that shoulder problem entering 2019, his return to pre-2018 form would give the Chicago Cubs what they had prior to last season: an MVP caliber middle-of-the-order hitter who doubles as a totally competent infielder. Without making a single move, they would “acquire” nearly five games of WAR.

And there’s some reason to hope for even more. Bryant will be 27 in 2019, an age generally identified as a ballplayer’s “prime.” His full potential is perhaps best  illustrated by his best season to date, his 2016 MVP year. Bryant, who was 24 at that time, batted .292 with a .385 on base average, a .554 slugging average, a 146 OPS+ and a 7.4 WAR.

Were that type of season to suddenly appear in the middle of the Cubs lineup, Joe Maddon would have a formidable offense indeed.

Yu Darvish

To say the Cubs acquired the benefits of Darvish via free agency prior to the 2018 season would be true only in the most technical sense. He made only eight appearances and worked just 40 innings before various ailments sidelined him for the season.

As a practical matter, therefore, Darvish is a 2019 “addition.” It is, of course, an open question at this stage how valuable that “addition” will be.

The Chicago Cubs obviously hope they’ll get the Darvish they thought they were signing a year ago. If so, their rotation will have received a serious upgrade.

Darvish missed all of the 2015 season while recovering from arm surgery. But during 2016 and 2017, he compiled a 3.70 ERA for the Rangers and Dodgers,  making 24 starts in which he averaged 170 strikeouts and 45 walks.

That translated to an ERA+ in the range of 127, very much in line with Darvish’s career chart. In his limited 2018 duty with the Cubs, Darvish registered an 87 ERA+.

How good might the Cubs be if they can swap the 87 ERA+ Darvish for the 127 ERA+ Darvish?

For the record, Darvish will be 32 in 2019. Given his arm surgeries, whether it’s a young 32 is obviously a matter for debate. Yet arm surgeries, if you’ll forgive the expression, cut both ways. His 2015 and 2018 health problems also mean he’s had close to two full seasons of nothing but repair, rest and conditioning on his arm.

Counting his major, minor and Japanese experience, Darvish has pitched about 2,100 innings across a 13-season career, or about 161 innings per season. Clayton Kershaw, who is one year younger, has about 200 innings more of work. Darvish’s teammate, Jon Lester, had about 560 innings more of professional experience when he was 32.

Kyle Hendricks

By no stretch was Kyle Hendricks a bad pitcher in 2018. He just wasn’t quite Kyle Hendricks.

Hendricks posted a 14-11 record and 3.44 ERA last season, pitching 199 innings. That translated to a 125 ERA+ and a 3.5 WAR. Any team would gladly take that from its No. 2 or 3 starter.

But consider that against what Hendricks had been, consider that he’s still only in his 20s, and consider what kind of 2019 he could have if he merely returns to his previously established form.

Between 2015 and 2017, Hendricks averaged a 10-7 record with a 3.02 ERA in 29 starts. His WHIP averaged just 1.101, bottoming out at 0.979 in 2016. His 2018 WHIP was 1.146, nothing to complain about but higher than Hendricks himself would expect.

There is a line of logic arguing that Hendricks’ 2015-17 performance was as much a product of luck as skill. That line, generally espoused by those who worship at the altar of the 100 mph fastball, point to Hendricks’ inability to throw anything harder than about 90 mph as proof positive that fate will soon catch  up to him…and perhaps already began to in 2018.

The problem is that there’s no evidence of that happening. Hendricks’ batting average on balls in play for 2018 was .271. That’s only marginally higher than his 2015-2017 average of .26, but hardly supportive of an assertion that Hendricks’ stellar 2016 season was a product of freakish fortune.

The truth is that Hendricks merely had a slightly sub-par season in 2018. He will be 29 in 2019, and barring injury there’s no reason to expect anything other than a return to his usual form.

Willson Contreras

One winter ago, Contreras was a budding star so confident in his progress that he openly talked about surpassing Yadier Molina as the game’s best backstop.

Six months ago he was the starting catcher on the National League All Star team. That honor was driven largely by his .281 batting average as of mid-June, basically the peak voting season.

Even at that stage, however, signs that Contreras’ game was not in its usual position could be seen. He hit only four home runs and drove in just 22 runs through the first 55 games. So his slide, which became evident early in the season’s second half, was actually just a continuation of a season-long collapse both from his 2016-2017 production and also from his own expectations.

That slide proved to be both deep and sustained. Over the final 83 games, Contreras added just 32 RBIs and batted just .225 with a .302 on base average and .343 slugging average. By season’s end, with his 92 OPS+ and 2.8 WAR, Contreras not only wasn’t the best catcher in baseball, he wasn’t even an especially good one.

What the Cubs need is for Contreras to restore his own reputation to its pre-2018 level. A comparison between the 2016-17 version of Contreras and the 2018 version illustrates what they would be getting. Note particularly the power change:

• 2016-2017: .279/.356/.494, 120 OPS+
• 2018: .249/.339/.390, 92 OPS+

The challenge may be diagnosing the reason behind Contreras’ mid-season collapse in the first place. There is no obvious cause, as there was, for example, in the cases of Bryant (injury), Darvish (ditto) or Addison Russell (off-field issues.)

Brandon Morrow

The 2018 season wasn’t a total washout for Morrow. He did make 30 appearances, he recorded 22 saves, and he was solid when available, delivering a 1.47 ERA and a 1.076 WHIP.

The problem was an arm injury that shut him down at the All Star break and eventually required arthroscopic surgery. It could be worse than that. Cubs President of Baseball Operations Theo Epstein told Chicago media that Morrow is unlikely to be fully recovered by the start of the 2019 season.

That’s unfortunate because unlike some of the Cubs’ other pre-2018 acquisitions – Darvish and Tyler Chatwood – Morrow actually pitched well…when he pitched. He will be 34 this season, but since he has not shown any on-field performance decline there’s every reason to expect him to be able to essentially replicate his recent performances.

Those recent performances have been quite good. They’ve just been sparse. Between 2015 and 2017, Morrow averaged a 1.127 WHIP and 193.6 ERA+, making him essentially twice as effective as the average big league pitcher. He averaged close to eight strikeouts and only about 1.9 walks every nine innings.

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The problem has been getting him to the mound. Since 2014, Morrow has never managed as much as a 50-inning workload, about 15 innings short of the bare minimum for a closer on a contender.   He has a $9 million contract, which at his average 31 inning workload for the past five seasons translates to about $290,000 per inning.

Since I know you’re wondering, the Cubs will pay Jon Lester about $27.5 million in 2019 to pitch about 180 innings. That works out to less than $153,000 per inning.  News flash: However valuable Brandon Morrow is, he is not nearly twice as valuable as Jon Lester.

The problem, obviously, is that Morrow’s durability issues were well understood before the Cubs signed him. So they need him to carry his usual load, but just to do it for longer.

As you can see, the Chicago Cubs have a chance to improve significantly just by returning back to previous levels.