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Chicago Cubs could see significant improvement from within

By Bill Felber

CHICAGO, IL - OCTOBER 2: Members of the Chicago Cubs return to the dugout after the national anthem before the National League Wild Card game against the Colorado Rockies at Wrigley Field on Tuesday, October 2, 2018 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Alex Trautwig/MLB Photos via Getty Images)
CHICAGO, IL - OCTOBER 2: Members of the Chicago Cubs return to the dugout after the national anthem before the National League Wild Card game against the Colorado Rockies at Wrigley Field on Tuesday, October 2, 2018 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Alex Trautwig/MLB Photos via Getty Images) /
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CHICAGO, IL – OCTOBER 2: Anthony Rizzo #44 of the Chicago Cubs looks on before the National League Wild Card game against the Colorado Rockies at Wrigley Field on Tuesday, October 2, 2018 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Alex Trautwig/MLB Photos via Getty Images) /

Anthony Rizzo

Unlike Bryant, Rizzo was not injured in 2018. He merely had a bad season.

And it was bad only by the standards Rizzo had previously set for himself, consisting of a .283/.376/.470 slash line, 25 home runs, 101 RBIs and a 121 OPS+. Most players would take that in a veritable heartbeat.

By the standards Rizzo had set from 2015 through 2017, however, it was only a so-so resume. Rizzo’s on base average fell by 12 percentage points from that three-season average,  his slugging average lost 50 percentage points, he hit seven fewer home runs and drove in a half dozen fewer runs. That prompted his OPS+ to fall nearly 20 points from the 140 level he had been operating at.

Rizzo’s offensive problems basically were three-fold: sluggish performances early in the season, against left-handed pitching, and on the road. All went against his performance chart.

He batted only .248 against lefties in 2018, well off his .272 average from 2015 through 2017. Away from Wrigley, he hit .248, 19 percentage points below his 2015-2017 road average. He hit the season’s halfway mark batting just .246, nearly 40 percentage points below his recent norm .

April was particularly distressing. Rizzo batted just .149 in April of 2018. Historically he has been an inconsistent starter, but never anywhere close to that impotent. From 2015 through 2017, his April batting average was .267.

Rizzo will be 29 in 2019. If he merely returns to his 2015-17 form, it would jack the Chicago Cubs offense by the equivalent of about 2.7 WAR.

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