Willson Contreras
One winter ago, Contreras was a budding star so confident in his progress that he openly talked about surpassing Yadier Molina as the game’s best backstop.
Six months ago he was the starting catcher on the National League All Star team. That honor was driven largely by his .281 batting average as of mid-June, basically the peak voting season.
Even at that stage, however, signs that Contreras’ game was not in its usual position could be seen. He hit only four home runs and drove in just 22 runs through the first 55 games. So his slide, which became evident early in the season’s second half, was actually just a continuation of a season-long collapse both from his 2016-2017 production and also from his own expectations.
That slide proved to be both deep and sustained. Over the final 83 games, Contreras added just 32 RBIs and batted just .225 with a .302 on base average and .343 slugging average. By season’s end, with his 92 OPS+ and 2.8 WAR, Contreras not only wasn’t the best catcher in baseball, he wasn’t even an especially good one.
What the Cubs need is for Contreras to restore his own reputation to its pre-2018 level. A comparison between the 2016-17 version of Contreras and the 2018 version illustrates what they would be getting. Note particularly the power change:
- 2016-2017: .279/.356/.494, 120 OPS+
- 2018: .249/.339/.390, 92 OPS+
The challenge may be diagnosing the reason behind Contreras’ mid-season collapse in the first place. There is no obvious cause, as there was, for example, in the cases of Bryant (injury), Darvish (ditto) or Addison Russell (off-field issues.)