Phillies: Dollars and sense before spring training

While Phillies stupid money would satisfy their loudest critics, it doesn’t mean unlimited financial spending by general manager Matt Klentak and the decision-makers above him on the totem pole.

Negotiating required: 

Positive vibes are contagious among the Philadelphia Phillies faithful because previous doubts and rumors are falling by the wayside. But last offseason, the market changed, and players are discovering it wasn’t an oddity: Many clubs aren’t agreeing to longer and more expensive contracts for top-tier free agents.

IN OTHER WORDS:       “A million dollars isn’t what it used to be.” – Howard Hughes

Regarding offers, organizations don’t want to lock in a roster slot for 10 campaigns or more and commit $325 million plus. And they also aren’t for shorter-term pacts with high AAVs (average annual value): $35-40 million per 162. A new normal?

Luxury Tax penalties for first overage:

• 20 percent for every dollar over $206 million.
• 32.5 percent for every dollar over threshold if over $226 million.
• 42.5 percent for every dollar over threshold if over $246 million and a ten-space drop in the MLB Draft for their first selection after the sixth overall.pick.

One reason is surpassing 2019’s competitive-balance threshold of $206 million. Yes, many deep-pocketed franchises favored to sign the top free agents would easily exceed the tax-rate line with a $20 million AAV acquisition. And those increased penalties have discouraged teams from unlimited spending.

Of course, the market is also sluggish due to agents like Scott Boras and stars expecting big paydays. However, those days might be ending due to Klentak’s current lack of competition.

As for the Phillies, their philosophy is to exceed the competitive-balance threshold if the player will give them an excellent shot to win the National League Championship. But everything has been short of that for years, and ’19 is no different due to the rotation’s shortcomings.

Why are some fans questioning the Phils lack of stupid-money lavishness? Because their reasoning is incomplete due to the absence of obstacles: competition, rules, financial information, and a limited time frame to name four.

Top-shelf acquisitions: 

For first-time free agents in 2020 and 2021, their agents are now making them aware of the changes they will be facing during the next two winters. In other words, the sky is no longer the limit.

As Jake Arrieta realized last March, his asking price of $210 million for seven seasons was too costly for even deep-pocked organizations. And he received $25 million annually for three summers instead of $30 million each for seven. So, he’s informing Aaron Nola, Rhys Hoskins and others of the new normal.

Concerning the market, Dallas Keuchel probably won’t be receiving a proposal near $100 million for five campaigns. Moreover, the Phillies may offer $60 million for four years, but that depends on the AAV for Bryce Harper or Manny Machado. Another March deal?

Expecting a minimum of $325 million for 10 seasons, Machado only has two or three suitors: the red pinstripes, the Chicago White Sox and –maybe– a mystery team. Reportedly, Chicago’s proposal was a recently questioned $25 million for seven summers or $175 million.

Harper’s offer from the Washington Nationals was $300 million for 10 campaigns. But after Washington’s offseason spending is that still on the table? Basically, the Nats have $4.4 million before they cross the Luxury Tax line, and $30 million AAV would even exceed the additional $20 million mark.

Crossing the finish line:

While many fans imagine a dream team assembled during the offseason, Harper, Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel won’t be on the active 25. Harper probably will be, Keuchel might be, but all three won’t be.

At $156.4 million, the Phils have $49.6 million, and $206 million is an amount they won’t exceed without a solid shot at the NL pennant. In other words, Harper at $30-35 million and Keuchel at $15-20 million are a doable $45-55 million. And remember, Klentak already has David Robertson under contract.

As for Nola, his arbitration figure was $6.75 million, the Phils’ offer was $4.5 million, and Roster Resource estimated $6.6 million in their $156.4 million tally. Basically, this is a negotiation in progress, and the red pinstripes will probably agree to $5.75 million.

Many locals don’t realize an additional $1 million gives management more room to sign Harper and Keuchel. Usually, negotiations have higher asks by players and lower proposals by clubs. And keep in mind, if Klentak can add Keuchel, it will be due to keeping payroll down with Harper as well.

While some national publications expect Harper to be a February or March signing, Boras knows the Phillies offer will be more lucrative than the White Sox’s. And because the Phils have leverage as a result, what could the super agent decide to do instead of delaying the inevitable? Strike first!

If you have any questions or opinions regarding Philadelphia Phillies players, please open the comments section.