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Fantasy baseball: 5 second half trends to believe, 5 lies

By Benjamin Chase

LOS ANGELES, CA - OCTOBER 28: David Price #24 of the Boston Red Sox delivers the pitch during the first inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game Five of the 2018 World Series at Dodger Stadium on October 28, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CA - OCTOBER 28: David Price #24 of the Boston Red Sox delivers the pitch during the first inning against the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game Five of the 2018 World Series at Dodger Stadium on October 28, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images) /
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NEW YORK, NY – SEPTEMBER 23: Miguel Andujar #41 of the New York Yankees in action against the Baltimore Orioles at Yankee Stadium on September 23, 2018 in the Bronx borough of New York City. The Orioles defeated the Yankees 6-3. (Photo by Jim McIsaac/Getty Images) /

Bronx success

In 2018, the rookie crop in Major League Baseball was perhaps the best that fantasy baseball had seen ever. Two rookies in the American League East had opposite results in the second half, and they both should be expected to head more toward the middle in 2019.

Miguel Andujar had a huge 2018. He came out and hit well in the first half of the season, but in the second half, he was absolutely on fire. The rookie Yankees third baseman hit .319/.345/.575 with 20 doubles and 15 home runs over 267 plate appearances in the second half.

So why would his numbers be tough to believe? For one, Andujar rarely walked in 2018, sporting a 4.1% walk rate for the entire season, lower than any mark he’d had in the minor leagues. That mark was even lower in the second half, as he had a 3.4% walk rate.

He saw his infield hit rate skyrocket as well, going from 7.9% in the first half to 15.5% along with a home run rate that jumped nearly 5% to 17.6% home runs per fly ball hit. While Andujar has real power, and the added fly ball rate (up 6% from 1st half to 2nd half) could be real, adding that much in fly balls leaving the yard is not sustainable. The biggest thing is the infield hit percentage, as he is certainly not fleet of foot, and expecting to have a double-digit infield hit rate would be foolhardy.

Bidders on Andujar would be wise to expect more of a line in the .280-.290 range for batting average, with 20-25 home runs. That’s still an excellent player, but seeing projections that have Andujar projected for a .310+ batting average and 25+ home runs are aggressive, to say the least, especially until he polishes his plate discipline.

Tamps struggles, now Tribe success?

The flip side to Andujar is certainly Jake Bauers. The Tampa Bay Rays prospect worked his way to the major leagues in 2018. The Rays had not settled on Bauer’s position throughout the minor leagues, playing him at first and the outfield corners throughout his ascent through the minor leagues.

Bauers started well in the first half, playing in 36 games and posting a .252/.368/.496 line. If someone were to tell me next offseason that Bauers put up that exact line for Cleveland in 2019, it would make perfect sense.

However, Bauers began to hit balls at everyone in the second half, seeing his BABIP drop from .301 down to .215. That took his line to .167/.281/.307 as he pressed to break out of his slump and struggled further.

Interestingly, one of the hitters I considered very similar to Bauers in plate approach in the minor leagues when I watched Bauers was Carlos Santana. Now that the two are teammates, I could certainly see him translating to a .260-.270 hitter (with good on-base) and 20-25 home runs, if not more.

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