Fantasy baseball: 5 second half trends to believe, 5 lies

A savvy fantasy baseball player knows to look at splits in the major league season to see underlying trends that could indicate either a breakout or step back in the next season.

As fantasy baseball draft season kicks into gear in February, smart fantasy players are studying now for their drafts, looking at trends from the previous season to find possible undervalued or overvalued players in drafts to help guide draft strategy. Let’s look at some of the trends in 2018, and which ones you can buy into and which ones you should not.

Postseason

The first thing we’ll look at isn’t part of the 5 to believe or not to believe. It’s the ultimate in highly-visible small sample size that can drastically sway a view on a player for his next season’s fantasy baseball value.

A great example last season was David Price. Coming into the ALCS, Price had never won a game as a starter in the postseason in 10 starts. When he allowed 3 runs over 1 2/3 innings against the Yankees, many ranted about him, stating he was nowhere near the pitcher he was being paid to be.

Price then went on to make 5 appearances (4 starts) in the ALCS and World Series for Boston, going 3-0, tossing 24 1/3 innings with a 2.59 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and a 10/23 BB/K ratio, quite arguably earning the World Series MVP, though the award went to teammate Steve Pearce.

Is Price the pitcher who couldn’t win a playoff start before that Houston series? Is he the guy who dominated the World Series? Perhaps better to view instead is his second half of 2018, when Price went 6-1 over 11 starts, posting a 2.25 ERA, 0.7 WHIP and struck out 68 in 68 innings. Finally healthy, he showed production akin to his early career, and that should be what you track for fantasy baseball, not a two-week October sample.

The guys to watch for inflated value in fantasy baseball drafts this season due to their postseason performance would be Nathan Eovaldi, Joe Kelly, Walker Buehler, and Josh Hader. Those who could see their value dip due to the postseason could include Craig Kimbrel, Kenley Jansen, Clayton Kershaw, Xander Bogaerts, Joakim Soria, Jeremy Jeffress, Luis Severino, and Cody Bellinger.

Now that we’ve got that out of the way, let’s take a look at the second half trends to believe and to doubt, and we’ll alternate, starting first with one to doubt…

Bronx success

In 2018, the rookie crop in Major League Baseball was perhaps the best that fantasy baseball had seen ever. Two rookies in the American League East had opposite results in the second half, and they both should be expected to head more toward the middle in 2019.

Miguel Andujar had a huge 2018. He came out and hit well in the first half of the season, but in the second half, he was absolutely on fire. The rookie Yankees third baseman hit .319/.345/.575 with 20 doubles and 15 home runs over 267 plate appearances in the second half.

So why would his numbers be tough to believe? For one, Andujar rarely walked in 2018, sporting a 4.1% walk rate for the entire season, lower than any mark he’d had in the minor leagues. That mark was even lower in the second half, as he had a 3.4% walk rate.

He saw his infield hit rate skyrocket as well, going from 7.9% in the first half to 15.5% along with a home run rate that jumped nearly 5% to 17.6% home runs per fly ball hit. While Andujar has real power, and the added fly ball rate (up 6% from 1st half to 2nd half) could be real, adding that much in fly balls leaving the yard is not sustainable. The biggest thing is the infield hit percentage, as he is certainly not fleet of foot, and expecting to have a double-digit infield hit rate would be foolhardy.

Bidders on Andujar would be wise to expect more of a line in the .280-.290 range for batting average, with 20-25 home runs. That’s still an excellent player, but seeing projections that have Andujar projected for a .310+ batting average and 25+ home runs are aggressive, to say the least, especially until he polishes his plate discipline.

Tamps struggles, now Tribe success?

The flip side to Andujar is certainly Jake Bauers. The Tampa Bay Rays prospect worked his way to the major leagues in 2018. The Rays had not settled on Bauer’s position throughout the minor leagues, playing him at first and the outfield corners throughout his ascent through the minor leagues.

Bauers started well in the first half, playing in 36 games and posting a .252/.368/.496 line. If someone were to tell me next offseason that Bauers put up that exact line for Cleveland in 2019, it would make perfect sense.

However, Bauers began to hit balls at everyone in the second half, seeing his BABIP drop from .301 down to .215. That took his line to .167/.281/.307 as he pressed to break out of his slump and struggled further.

Interestingly, one of the hitters I considered very similar to Bauers in plate approach in the minor leagues when I watched Bauers was Carlos Santana. Now that the two are teammates, I could certainly see him translating to a .260-.270 hitter (with good on-base) and 20-25 home runs, if not more.

You can trust Rhys for power

His season seemed to slip under the radar, as much as a 34 home run season can fly under the radar. Of course, with the power in the game, that is much more feasible in today’s game.

Hoskins struggled mightily with constant moving in the outfield, and after displaying very good defense at first base in 2017, the Phillies signed Carlos Santana to handle first, meaning Hoskins would find his way to the outfield. The move was a mess, to say the least.

First, Hoskins does have the arm and even the instincts that if he was left alone in the outfield for a full season, he could at least become a league-average defensive outfielder. However, he’s part of the Phillies, and that meant working through some fairly incredible outfield shifting by manager Gabe Kapler during the course of the season, much of which meant Hoskins really never got a chance to get used to his defensive outfield position.

If this piece were in place last offseason, Hoskins would have been on it as well after powering out 18 home runs in just 50 games, leaving questions as to his potential in the next season.

Hoskins struggled to settle into his spot in the lineup in the first half, but a .311 BABIP propped up his numbers enough to hide that. In spite of nearly a 90-point drop in BABIP to the second half, Hoskins had 70 more points in OPS.

Hoskins was one of only 3 players in baseball in 2018 that hit 20 home runs in the second half. What was most impressive was that Hoskins didn’t just power out home runs, he also had a similar walk and strikeout rate to eventual NL MVP Christian Yelich in the second half, as he walked 12.4% of the time and struck out an incredible 19.7% of the time.

For a slugger to keep his strikeout rate that low leads to very positive feelings for what he could do in 2019. Only three players hit 40 home runs in 2018, and Hoskins absolutely should be one who tops that number in 2019.

Power is not to be trusted

The San Diego Padres have been in trade rumors plenty with their excess of outfielders, offering one of their outfielders to multiple teams for various positions that will help the team in the long-term. One name often mentioned is corner outfielder Hunter Renfroe.

Renfroe had a huge breakthrough 2018, with a .248/.302/.504 line and 26 home runs. He did a lot of that damage in the second half, hitting .253/.291/.541 with 19 home runs.

After changing his swing in 2017, Renfroe was more able to access his power, but previous issues with low walk rates plagued him. In 2018, he saw the hard work he’d done on his defense pay off, improving significantly in the outfield defensively in 2018.

There are two big reasons to question Renfroe’s 2019. Renfroe’s 2018 second half actually should have been significantly better. He had a surprisingly high ground ball rate, lowered his fly ball rate, and had a low BABIP, even for him. However, the uppercut swing is still a long swing, and he struggles with accessing pitches throughout the zone, focusing most of his work on pulling the ball, and as pitchers attack that, he’ll be in trouble.

The big reason to question his value for 2019 is simply that there are better options coming behind him. Franmil Reyes and Franchy Cordero are arguably better all-around players than Renfroe, and Wil Myers will be playing the outfield exclusively this year as well, giving the Padres four outfielders for two corner spots.

If Renfroe could get traded somewhere where he had a full-time job, that would add value, but as it currently sits, 26 home runs shouldn’t be expected again, and with a .250ish average, that won’t bring much for fantasy value.

Story should be front page for head-to-head

Something that many fantasy players that play in different styles of leagues fail to take into account is the different type of player that is a positive for each style of league.

In a standard scoring head-to-head league, a player who can burn white-hot for multiple weeks in a row is a huge asset. One that can fill all five statistical categories while he is on that white-hot streak is a monster asset.

As someone who won a league on his back last season, Trevor Story‘s second half was absolutely dynamic. Many mention Christian Yelich and Ronald Acuna, Jr. when considering a player who filled up all five categories at a high level in the second half, but Story was every bit the player those guys were.

Story hit .289/.339/.582 in the second half with 17 home runs, 15 stolen bases, 38 runs, and 40 RBI over 62 games. This is not unprecedented in Story’s career, either. While his overall numbers were excellent in 2018, Story’s big push to finish the season made him a legitimate MVP candidate.

Story has done this before, with a huge 2nd half in 2017 that made up for a very rough first half. His .254/.314/.520 line with 13 home runs were huge for fantasy baseball owners. His OPS was up over 130 points in the second half of 2017.

Of course, many remember Story’s incredible first half in his rookie year, when he exploded in April and carried it through until injury ended his season in July, hitting overall .272/.341/.567 with 27 home runs in 97 games. This is a player who has legit power and plays in Coors, so he has the ability to go on long runs gaining batting average in that big field with his power.

For any head-to-head player, Trevor Story should be bumped up from one of the top 10 guys to one of the top 3 at the deep shortstop position.

Elite relievers should not be trusted

In 2018, there were a number of relievers that had elite games, but if you wanted to try to predict those guys before the season, you were going to have a rough time. Coming into the season, it was common to see Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, Aroldis Chapman, Roberto Osuna, Ken Giles, Cody Allen, and Corey Knebel in the top 5 of reliever rankings.

However, if you look at the second half of 2018, none of them achieved even 15 saves, with Giles ranking highest with 14 saves of that group. The price to get those saves were rough with most of that group as well, as only Osuna had an ERA under 3.

More than anything, there are just so many relievers that could be useful in a fantasy baseball lineup. Guys like Jeremy Jeffress, Jose Leclerc, Wily Peralta, Pedro Strop, and Kirby Yates were likely not drafted at all in single-season leagues, yet in the second half, they were among the 19 who had double-digit saves.

Certainly, some guys did have elite seasons, but a guy like Edwin Diaz or Blake Treinen is as likely to repeat their 2018 as someone else is to come out of nowhere and have a similar season in 2019.

In short, wait, wait, wait until late in your 2019 draft to worry about relievers.

Two infielders will continue to excel in new homes

Daniel Murphy and Jurickson Profar changed teams this offseason, Murphy via free agent signing with Colorado and Profar via trade to Oakland. Both showed what their new club should expect with their second-half performance in 2018.

Murphy struggled with health in 2018, but once he got healthy, he was impressive, to say the least. Between Washington and the Cubs, Murphy totaled a .311/.346/.498 line with 11 home runs. While the move to Colorado may not increase his home run power, Murphy has long been a guy who pounds the gaps, and he is now headed to the perfect field for his gap power.

For a guy who hit .347 and .322 in 2016 and 2017, Murphy could be a guy who carries your fantasy baseball team in batting average, very feasibly competing for a batting title in his new location.

The Athletics snagged the versatile Profar from their division rival, and the former top overall prospect in the game is coming off his first full season. With star third baseman Matt Chapman possibly going to miss the very opening of the season, Profar will have a starting role at the hot corner likely coming out of camp and move to second base after that, with the versatility to play some shortstop and outfield as well.

Profar took a bit to get his feet under him in 2018, but he just seemed to tap more and more into his power as the season went on. In the second half, he hit .270/.348/.498 with 11 home runs in just 61 games.

He may not be the guy who people were hoping he’d turn into when he was the game’s #1 overall prospect, but Profar will be a guy to likely hit for solid average and 20-25 home runs with multiple position eligibility.

The Reds aren’t helpless in the rotation

One of the common themes of the offseason was how the Cincinnati Reds were in such tough shape in their rotation. Many assumed that losing Matt Harvey from the rotation would only make things worse in Cincy.

Those people weren’t looking at second half stats very deep. While Luis Castillo showed out as one might expect, making 11 starts, tossing 66 1/3 innings, with a 2.44 ERA and a stellar 14/69 BB/K ratio, most saw him as the only piece that the Reds had.

They missed the impressive return to action that Anthony DeSclafani had, and that is primarily because of his ERA. DeSclafani missed nearly two full seasons among the time missed in 2016-2018, missing all of the 2017 season completely. While his ERA was pushed up, DeSclafani posted a 17/73 BB/K ratio over 71 innings in the second half. If he can be a steady inning eater in the middle of the rotation, that will set up a lot of other things well.

Tyler Mahle had an excellent 2018 in the first half before injuries blew out his second half, ending his year after 4 starts in the second half had taken his ERA from 4.02 to 4.98 on the year. Cody Reed finished out the season in the rotation, posting a 4.13 ERA over 28 1/3 innings, posting an 11/28 BB/K.

Even before a potential Sonny Gray trade, the Reds are not a hopeless situation in fantasy baseball starting pitching, even if they aren’t going to give multiple guys who lead a fantasy rotation.

While Diamondbacks young arms should be questioned

Behind ace Zack Greinke, who has lost some of his own dominant stuff yet is still priced like an ace in many fantasy baseball leagues, the Arizona Diamondbacks run out a fairly young staff.

In 2018, that staff saw plenty of ups and downs, even from their two mainstays, Robbie Ray and Zack Godley. The team lost Taijuan Walker to Tommy John surgery, and he will not be back until mid-2019 at the soonest, and even new acquisition Luke Weaver fits into the mold of guys that struggled in 2018 with consistency.

The issue is that I just don’t see any of them smoothing things out in 2019. Ray is the best candidate, and many are pointing to his second-half line of a 3.23 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, and 92 strikeouts in 75 1/3 innings to show that he should be a possible sleeper target for a monster 2019. If he comes out and does that, I’ll gladly admit my mistake, but looking at his games on video and his walk rate (13.8%!) lead me to think that Ray’s more likely to be a guy who gives you great starts one time through the rotation and then a bomb the next time, always with good strikeouts, but big issues to your ERA and WHIP.

Rotation mate Godley had a much better second half in underlying numbers like his walk rate and strikeout rate, even though his ERA was at 4.93. However, Godley simply had balls stay in the park to provide an artificially low home run rate as he got hit harder than he ever has in his career in the second half of 2018, yet had an incredibly abnormal 7% of fly balls leave the park. When that number normalizes, even better walk and strikeout rates won’t help the ERA from ballooning even further.

Bringing in Weaver from the Cardinals in the Goldschmidt trade was an odd choice in the eyes of many evaluators. Weaver has struggled to harness his stuff at the big league level, throwing incredibly straight stuff that simply gets pounded by big league hitters, in spite of its velocity.

At least for 2019, until they show they can be relied upon, it’s in your best interest to keep the variability of the Diamondbacks rotation away from your fantasy baseball team.

Rookies can be trusted…to some degree

The production of 2018’s rookie class was tremendous. Per Fangraphs version of Wins Above Replacement, 15 players posted a fWAR over 2 in 2018. While many saw that as historic, it’s the second season in a row with 15, and 2016’s class was even better with 19. In other words, nearly 50 rookies over the past three seasons have given you above-average regular production in their rookie season.

The usual caveats will continue to apply regarding watching for when a team will call a player up and understanding that some players will deal with struggles early on, but if you look at how some of the top rookies finished in 2018, you see just how valuable they can be:

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• Ronald Acuna, .322/.403/.625, 19 HR, 14 SB
• Shohei Ohtani, .287/.357/.596, 15 HR, 8 SB
• Juan Soto, .286/.401/.517, 13 HR
• Jeff McNeil, .329/.381/.471, 3 HR, 7 SB
• Joey Wendle, .321/.381/.486, 3 HR, 9 SB
• Daniel Palka, .246/.309/.503, 15 HR
• Ramon Laureano, .288/.358/.474, 5 HR, 7 SB
• Luke Voit, .333/.405/.689, 14 HR
• Miguel Andujar, .319/.345/.575, 15 HR
• Willy Adames, .305/.383/.435, 7 HR, 5 SB
• Nick Martini, .306/.416/.425
• Franmil Reyes, .315/.383/.537, 10 HR
• Jorge Alfaro, .276/.366/.422, 4 HR, 3 SB
• Walker Buehler, 80 IP, 2.03 ERA, 3.05 FIP
• Shane Bieber, 71 1/3 IP, 5.17 ERA, 3.30 FIP
• Brad Keller, 77 IP, 3.04 ERA, 3.55 FIP
• Jack Flaherty, 76 IP, 3.43 ERA, 3.95 FIP
• Ryan Borucki, 74 2/3 IP, 3.98 ERA, 4.15 FIP
• Dereck Rodriguez, 71 2/3 IP, 2.76 ERA, 3.93 FIP
• Austin Gomber, 60 2/3 IP, 4.60 ERA, 3.85 FIP
• Jaime Barria, 63 1/3 IP, 3.27 ERA, 4.31 FIP
• Ty Buttrey, 16 1/3 IP, 4 SV, 3.31 ERA, 1.63 FIP
• Adam Kolarek, 28 IP, 2 SV, 1.93 ERA, 2.38 FIP

So when the consideration for Vladimir Guerrero, Jr., Eloy Jimenez, Fernando Tatis, Jr., Victor Robles, Keston Hiura, Luis Urias, Alex Verdugo, or Peter Alonso come in your 2019 draft, don’t be afraid of them, but instead push in on them and reap the rewards later in the season.

Keeping an eye on other young players that work up to the majors over the course of the year could be very good for your fantasy baseball squad as well, as many of those players mentioned weren’t on draft radars to open 2018 but showed well enough in the minors early to get to the majors and then had plenty of success once there.

That’s a long look at trends from the 2018 second half that should help to inform your upcoming fantasy baseball drafts. Hope you enjoyed!