Rivals’ bullpen options vs. Phillies trade bait

Focusing on alternatives to three veteran Phillies relievers, opposing front offices may soon be dealing with general manager Matt Klentak because he has available setup men comparing well with other trading partners or remaining free agents.

Comparing arm-ternatives:   

For most Philadelphia Phillies fans, the organization’s financial picture is similar to the Moon’s dark side: virtually invisible. Basically, stupid money has overshadowed the growing payroll, and Klentak must negotiate with free agents, arbitration-eligible players, and GMs for maximum monetary flexibility.

IN OTHER WORDS:       “I’d like to add that negotiating is not something to be avoided or feared — it’s an everyday part of life.” – Leigh Steinberg

Even though the red pinstripes are at $156.4 million AAV (average annual value) and are $49.6 million shy of the competitive-balance threshold of $206 million, a $30-35 million AAV will eat the lion’s share of nearly $50 million. So, adding pieces becomes more difficult, not impossible.

Looking over the Phils’ roster, another decision-maker considers Klentak’s asking prices for Pat Neshek, Tommy Hunter and Juan Nicasio and compares those relievers to other acquisition opportunities. But will one of these setup men be a fit with another franchise?

For execs needing a late-inning fireman, the San Francisco Giants have southpaws Will Smith and Tony Watson. But because rebuilding looms in San Francisco, waiting until July could be more beneficial. Therefore, dealing either bullpen piece before Opening Day is iffy.

As for signing possibilities, they run from possible closers and lefty specialists to setup relievers. And, now, the number of available hurlers ranges from those who had solid campaigns to down 2018s. Ergo, Klentak is competitive with Neshek and Hunter.

Regarding the market, Shawn Kelley is currently drawing interest from 10 clubs according to a national publication. Yes, one team will probably offer more than a one-summer contract, while others will prefer only a single 162. And Klentak can take an educated guess to determine who those 10 are.

As for need, most clubs have three-to-five solid relievers and seven slots to fill. Realistically, 10 teams at least have the funds to add a solid hurler to their pen, and some of their choices aren’t equal to Neshek or Hunter who have one season remaining on their pacts. But Klentak is patient.

Financial acquisitions:

If you were a rival GM, you’d compare signing an available setup man to the Phillies firemen with only one year remaining on their commitments. In fact, taking on salary isn’t much different than inking a free agent.

Drawing the most attention, right-hander Kelley, 34, fired 49 frames and recorded a 2.94 ERA with only four holds during his 54 appearances to earn $5 million in ’18. However, the Washington Nationals had designated him for assignment after his on-field antics, and the Oakland A’s claimed him.

Righty Adam Warren, 31, is a first-time free agent who accepted $3.3 million in his final arbitration year. But even though he had a 3.14 ERA for 51 2/3 innings, he only had four holds during his 47 performances with the Seattle Mariners.

Receiving save opportunities with the Giants, Hunter Strickland, 30, made $1.55 million in 2018 and is now testing free agency. For 49 outings, the right-hander had a 3.97 ERA, 14 saves and four holds for 45 1/3 frames. But if he doesn’t snag a closer’s gig, he will handle setup roles.

Update on Jan. 24: Strickland agreed to sign with the Seattle Mariners, and Brack agreed to sign with the Chicago Cubs.

Finishing his 162 with the Atlanta Braves, righty Brad Brach, 32, made 69 appearances for a 3.59 ERA, 12 saves and 11 holds over 62 2/3 innings. And his last commitment was $5.17 million with the Baltimore Orioles.

As for Tyler Clippard, 33, he pitched for only $1.5 million: a fraction of his previous contracts. The right-hander had 73 outings with a 3.67 ERA, seven saves and 15 holds for 68 2/3 frames, but chances are he won’t be vying for high-leverage relief spots. Yes, that ex-Yankee Clippard.

Prospects required:

The Phillies trade competition comes from the Giants with Smith and Watson, who will be free agents after this campaign. Firstly, though, two bounce-back candidates are right-handers Sergio Romo and Ryan Madson, who had good summers before ’18.

Although Romo, 35, was a publicized opener for the Tampa Bay Rays, he only started five games out of his 73 opportunities for last season’s $2.5 million. Overall, he had a 4.14 ERA with 25 saves and nine holds for 67 1/3 innings.

As for Madson, 38, he finished his contract year of $7.5 million but had a dreadful 2018. He made 58 appearances for a 5.47 ERA, 14 saves and four holds over 52 2/3 frames. But how much does he have left in the tank?

In San Francisco, Smith, 29, earned $4.23 million for his 54 outings. He produced a 2.55 ERA with 14 saves and six holds for 53 innings. Therefore, he’s an attractive possibility to many organizations with openings in the back end of their bullpens.

Watson, 33, is the other left-hander the Giants could swap this offseason. For ’18, he made $4 million for his solid 72 appearances: He recorded a 2.59 ERA with 32 holds for 66 frames, but like Smith he’ll also be a free agent after this 162.

When you consider San Francisco’s situation, it’s like the campaign before the Phils began their rebuilding. Ergo, their front office will deal these two setup men for decent prospects, but they’ll probably get a better return in July.

The Numerical Bible:

This review is not a sabermetrics article, which means no heavy statistical analysis. But because some readers rely on stats, this is only a reference: no reason to articulate the importance of these numbers.

Phillies statistical goal of 80 percent:  

• Neshek: 24 good, 2 so-so and 1 blowup out of 30 total for 86.7%
• Hunter: 40 good, 7 so-so and 0 blowups out of 65 total for 72.3%
• Nicasio: 28 good, 2 so-so and 3 blowups out of 65 total for 65.2%
• Rule of thumb is 4 good and so-so outings out of every 5 or 80%.

Relievers statistical goal of 80 percent:

• Smith: 43 good, 0 so-so and 1 blowup out of 54 total for 79.6%
• Watson: 50 good,12 so-so and 2 blowups out of 72 total for 86.1%
• Kelley: 41 good, 2 so-so and 0 blowups out of 54 total for 79.6%
• Warren: 31 good, 3 so-so and 1 blowup out of 47 total for 72.3%
• Brach: 46 good, 6 so-so and 3 blowups out of 69 total for 75.4%
• Strickland: 35 good, 0 so-so and 2 blowups out of 49 total for 71.4%
• Clippard: 54 good, 2 so-so and 3 blowups out of 73 total for 76.7%
• Romo’s total: 53 good, 0 so-so and 4 blowups out of 73 total for 72.6%
• Romo as opener: 3 good, 1 bad and 1 blowup out of 5 total.
• Madson: 38 good, 4 so-so and 3 blowups out of 58 total for 72.4%
• A blowup is 4 ER for less than 2 innings or 3 ER for less than 1 inning.
• Bad outings are the numerical difference.

Phillies relief alternatives:

• Neshek, 38: 30 Gms., 24 1/3 Inn., a 2.59 ERA, 5 Saves, 6 Holds, a 3.61 FIP, a 4.99 xFIP, a 4.51 SIERA, a 0.3 fWAR and a 1.15 WHIP.
• Hunter, 32.5: 65 Gms., 64 Inn., a 3.80 ERA, 4 Saves, 25 Holds, a 3.63 FIP, a 4.01 xFIP, a 3.69 SIERA, a 0.7 fWAR and a 1.25 WHIP.
• Nicasio, 32: 46 Gms., 42 Inn., a 6.00 ERA, 19 Holds, a 2.99 FIP, a 3.18 xFIP, a 2.60 SIERA, a 0.8 fWAR and a 1.38 WHIP.

Trade alternatives:

• Smith, 29.5: 54 Gms., 53 Inn., a 2.55 ERA, 14 Saves, 6 Holds, a 2.07 FIP, a 2.76 xFIP, a 2.50 SIERA, a 2.0 fWAR and a 0.98 WHIP.
• Watson, 33.5: 72 Gms., 66 Inn., a 2.59 ERA, 32 Holds, a 2.45 FIP, a 3.09 xFIP, a 2.90 SIERA, a 1.8 fWAR and a 1.03 WHIP.

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Free-agent alternatives:

• Kelley, 34.5: 54 Gms., 49 Inn., a 2.94 ERA, 4 Holds, a 3.71 FIP, a 4.15 xFIP, a 3.36 SIERA, a 0.5 fWAR and a 0.90 WHIP.
• Warren, 31: 47 Gms., 51 2/3 Inn., a 3.14 ERA, 4 Holds, a 3.94 FIP, a 4.31 xFIP, a 3.84 SIERA, a 0.3 fWAR and a 1.32 WHIP.
• Brach, 32.5: 69 Gms., 62 2/3 Inn., a 3.59 ERA, 12 Saves, 11 Holds, a 3.67 FIP, a 4.22 xFIP, a 4.09 SIERA, a 0.7 fWAR and a 1.60 WHIP.
• Strickland, 30: 49 Gms., 45 1/3 Inn., a 3.97 ERA, 14 Saves, 4 Holds, a 4.42 FIP, a 4.99 xFIP, a 4.62 SIERA, a -0.2 fWAR and a 1.41 WHIP.
• Clippard, almost 34: 73 Gms., 68 2/3 Inn., a 3.67 ERA, 7 Saves, 15 Holds, a 4.24 FIP, a 4.28 xFIP, a 3.42 SIERA, a 0.5 fWAR and a 1.17 WHIP.
• Romo, 35.5: 73 Gms., 67 1/3 Inn., a 4.14 ERA, 25 Saves, 9 Holds, a 4.04 FIP, a 3.90 xFIP, a 3.32 SIERA, a 0.5 fWAR and a 1.26 WHIP.
• Madson, 38: 58 Gms., 52 2/3 Inn., a 5.47 ERA, 14 Saves, 4 Holds, a 3.98 FIP, a 3.97 xFIP, a 3.54 SIERA, a 0.2 fWAR and a 1.41 WHIP.

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