Houston Astros should not re-sign, overpay Dallas Keuchel

Dallas Keuchel still doesn’t have a team after several months of being a free agent. The Houston Astros are still interested, even though they shouldn’t be at this point.

While the Houston Astros lost three starting pitchers this offseason, they have yet to sign or acquire replacements for the rotation. Instead, they replaced two with an up-and-coming prospect and transitioned a reliever back to a starter.

Now the Houston front office might give in to Dallas Keuchel’s demand and bring back the former Cy Young winner. But that wouldn’t be the best decision at this time.

Due to the lackluster pitching options in free agency this winter, the few somewhat viable options were overpaid. Nathan Eovaldi now makes $17 million a year, while Matt Harvey and Lance Lynn both earn at least $10 million a year.

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Teams in dire need of pitching are willing to overspend in return for a rotation filler. That is, until they can develop a prospect to accept a back-end spot or until they can snag a better starter via a trade.

Yet, the Astros are not one of those teams. They have a relatively solid rotation already, even without McCullers, Morton and Keuchel, who pitched more than 34 percent of the team’s innings overall.

Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole still rank as one of the best one-two punches in the American League. Houston was the only team in the MLB that possessed two players in the top 10 in ERA – thanks to them.

The Astros will miss Morton and McCullers, as they helped the club rank first in team ERA. However, they have enough firepower in the farm system and bullpen to compete in a shoddy American League West.

Keuchel also proved to be more of a liability than an asset throughout last season.

He labored through more than 200 innings for the third time in his career. Yet, he didn’t miss many bats, allowing a career-high – and MLB-high –  211 hits in that span. Meanwhile, his strikeout rate decreased considerably from that of 2017.

Much of the damage came early on in games, primarily the first inning. Opponents posted a brutal .331/.381/.867 slash line in the opening inning during outings.

This led to a prolonged stretch of inconsistency. Keuchel allowed more than five runs in a game seven times in 2018. But he also held opposing teams to one or fewer runs in 10 of his 34 starts.

There are still positive aspects from Keuchel’s performances. The 31-year-old acquired another Gold Glove. He also fared okay during the postseason, allowing four runs across 10 innings pitched.

Frankly, there are worse pitchers Houston can toss in a given game, especially if they choose from the current free agent options. But the Astros have the luxury of not needing an additional starter.

At this point, Keuchel can receive a contract worth $15 million dollars a year – remember, J.A. Happ earns $17 million a year. Houston just does not have – nor should it spend – that amount of money.

If the Astros can sign the left-hander to a much-smaller, shorter deal, it could be worth it. But barring a plethora of injuries, Keuchel won’t be worth a more lucrative, multi-year contract for the upcoming season.