New York Mets: Will Jason Vargas Bounce Back in 2019?

Jason Vargas struggled during his first season with the New York Mets. What can the team expect from the veteran lefty in 2019?

The 2018 season was not kind to Jason Vargas. The left-handed starting pitcher began the year by signing a two-year, $16 million deal (with a team option for 2020) with the New York Mets. After a late start to his season, Vargas slogged through a lackluster campaign where he only made 20 starts.

The veteran finished 2018 with a record of 7-9, posting an unsightly ERA of 5.77. Unless the Mets make an unexpected move, Jason Vargas will be the club’s fifth starter in 2019.

What can we expect from the aging lefty? Can we be optimistic about his upcoming season?

Surprisingly, the answer to that question is yes, I believe that we should be optimistic about Jason Vargas’ 2019 season. Let’s look at why…

After taking a deeper look into Vargas’ numbers, a clear season split became noticeable.

Over his first nine starts, Vargas threw 37.2 innings and posted an ERA of 8.60. Opposing batters owned the veteran lefty as they recorded a slash line of .344/.404/.613.

Vargas’ season turned around in July after he returned from his second stint on the disabled list. Over his last 11 starts, Vargas posted an ERA of 3.81 over 54.1 innings pitched. Opposing batters only managed to post a batting line of .223/.285/.376.

What fueled his turnaround?

In my opinion, improved health and conditioning had a lot to do with Vargas’ improvements.

As I mentioned, Vargas missed time at the beginning of the season due to a fractured right hand suffered during Spring Training. Vargas isn’t a young player, older players rely on Spring Training in order to get back into a baseball routine. It’s reasonable to assume that his abbreviated Spring Training threw off his conditioning/pre-season routine. While this definitely was not the main cause of his troubles, it’s very easy to figure that it played a part. Did Vargas initially rush back too quickly? Maybe he did, especially considering that his turnaround came following a second stint on the disabled list. Vargas seemed to maximize his time off while rehabbing his strained calf, helping him finish his season strong.

A second possibility lies within the veteran’s ground ball percentage and pitch selection (via FanGraphs). Vargas doesn’t light up the radar gun, but he will generate ground balls. In 2017, Vargas was named to the AL- All-Star team as a member of the Kansas City Royals. Throughout that campaign, Vargas averaged a ground ball percentage of 40.3%. That number fell slightly through Vargas’ first nine starts of 2018, as he recorded a GB% of 36.54%. During his turnaround, that number rose to 38.64%.

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A similar trend can be seen in Vargas’ pitch selection. During his 2017 season, Vargas threw his sinker 43% of the time. Through his first nine starts of 2018, Vargas only threw his sinker 32.54% of the time. His usage rose to 35.11% during his turnaround.

While we can never be 100% certain, it is safe to assume that Vargas made an adjustment following his initial struggles, reverting to what worked in past years. Baring regression we are left to wonder, why can’t Vargas do this again in 2019?

On paper, this seems like the simple solution, but Vargas won’t be better simply because he throws more sinkers. Different situations dictate different approaches, but the difference in percentages is worth noting.

This data leaves me with the conclusion that we should be optimistic about Vargas’ outlook in 2019. Will he be an ace? No, but it is reasonable to assume that he should bounce back to form, giving the New York Mets a respectable fifth starter.