The surprise team of 2019 will be…the Minnesota Twins?

With a roster primed to rebound statistically and smart offseason signings, the Minnesota Twins could be the surprise team of 2019.

Looking for a surprise team for 2019? Don’t look past the Minnesota Twins, perhaps the best-positioned team to make an unexpected move.

True, the Twins won only 78 games in 2018, finishing 13 games behind the division champion Indians and 19 games out of the wild card chase.

True, too, that the team has since undergone a leadership shift headlined by the retirement of its on-field leader, Joe Mauer and the ouster of manager Paul Molitor after four seasons. Having led the Twins to a 304-343 record and one post-season wild card loss, Molitor was replaced by freshman manager Rocco Baldelli.

At age 37, Baldelli will be the youngest manager in the major leagues, although that’s not the best reason to set aside a quid or two in their name. Rather, the Minnesota Twins will enter the 2019 season with an unusual mixture of elements indicative of a team staring right at a major rebound season.

Admittedly, that’s not the conventional wisdom. In Las Vegas, the winter book lists the Twins at 35-to-1 to win the American League pennant, making them only the ninth favorite of the 15 teams. Even the Angels and White Sox, who won just 80 and 62 games respectively last season, are better bets in Vegas.

Given the crapshoot format of the MLB post-season, where an excellent team suffering through a bad week can be ousted by an inferior club, predicting a pennant is asking a lot of any team. But predicting a post-season spot for the Twins? That’s totally foreseeable. All you have to do is look at the clues.

The comeback kids

The first ingredient required of a solid underdog is a roster containing one or two potential stars coming off under-performing seasons. The Twins are loaded in that category.

Sidelined at the start of 2018 by migraines and later by a series of injuries, Byron Buxton got into only 28 games, got fewer than 100 at-bats, and produced essentially nothing. That, however, is no reason to give up on the former No. 1 minor league prospect…and the Twins aren’t.

Mindful both of his solid 2017 season and of the fact that he is still only 25, they slot Buxton as the team’s opening day center fielder. In his only full season, Buxton was a 5 WAR player for the Twins, and not coincidentally a centerpiece of their 2017 wild card run.

At age 24, Miguel Sano delivered 28 home runs for the 2017 team. Last year he slumped to 13 and a .199 batting average, a performance that earned him a demotion to the minors. The Twins aren’t counting on Sano in 2019 – that’s why they signed Nelson Cruz and C.J. Cron – so a return to 2017 form would be a bonus.

Outfielder Max Kepler has never quite lived up to the expectations Minnesota Twins fans harbored for his bat when he arrived as a 23-year-old rookie in 2018. Still, Kepler is only 26, he has the power swing and needs only to improve his contact rate.

Speculation is that Kepler – along with Buxton – is a target of management efforts to ensure a long-term contractual arrangement. If that happens this spring, it’s a sure sign that the Twins are convinced their budding star is ready to blossom.

Re-enforcements

Even good young teams need veteran re-enforcements to provide stability. The Twins made two potentially meaningful moves in that direction this winter with the signings of free agents Nelson Cruz and C.J. Cron

Cruz is a long-time DH who signed a potential two-year, $26 million contract earlier this month. With Seattle in 2018, Cruz’s renowned ‘boomstick’ launched 37 home runs and drove in 97 runs. Over the past five seasons, he has averaged 41 homers and 104 RBIs.

Granted, Cruz will be 38 in 2019, but his power game has shown no signs of wilting.

Cron is a 29-year-old first baseman who stepped up his own power game with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2018. Getting his first chance to play as a full-timer, he hit 30 home runs, nearly doubling his previous best mark. The Twins got Cron on the cheap when Tampa Bay let him go on waivers, the idea being for him to succeed Mauer at first base.

Installing Cron’s 30 home runs behind Cruz’s 37 in the middle of the order should also take production pressure of Buxton, Sano and Kepler. Last year no Twin managed as many as 25 home runs, Eddie Rosario leading the team with 24.

Speaking of Rosario…

Any surprise contender needs a centerpiece along with one or two breakthroughs. Eddie Rosario is an excellent candidate to be that centerpiece.

Entering his prime at an age 27 season that will be his fifth, Rosario is on a course to stardom. He followed up a .290, 27 home run 2017 with a .288 average and 24 home runs last year. As with Kepler (and Buxton and Sano), Rosario is another of those players management might target to lock in on some sort of multi-year deal. He was a 3.6 WAR player in 2018; if he can grow that to 5.0 or better in 2019 he’ll be All-Star caliber.

As for breakthroughs, consider the cases of Willians Astudillo and Ehire Adrianza.

Astudillo arrived as a 26-year old utility player in 2018. The Twins are slating him on the bench for the moment, with experience behind the plate, at third, and in the outfield.

If you think that suggests Astudillo may not have a position, you’re right. Still, the guy has given every indication he can hit. He batted .355 in limited duty last season, and he stuck out just three times in nearly 100 plate appearances.  So he’s showing the value of putting the bat on the ball.

By most measures, Adrianza has the higher upside. Acquired from the Giants prior to the 2017 season, he batted .251 in 114 games last year, splitting time between shortstop and third base. This spring the Twins are giving him a shot as the primary infield backup and counting on him to upgrade his .251 average and .301 on base average.

Payroll flexibility

More than most of their potential competitors, the Minnesota Twins are beautifully poised to make any necessary mid-course corrections.

The Twins begin the 2019 season with a payroll that may dip below $100 million for the first time since 2014, and – barring a nuclear-level free agent signing – will not top last season’s $128 million. That will give GM Thad Levine and executive VP Derek Falvey maximum flexibility to patch a roster hole or react in the event a pricey but desirable mid-season trade target looms.

It also means the Twins can afford to tie up any of their own stars on multi-year deals. That could provide further incentive for Kepler, Buxton, Adrianza, Rosario, catchers Jason Castro and Mitch Garver, or any of several promising members of the Twins’ young mound staff.

Looking past 2019, the Twins have virtually no payroll commitments tying them down.

That’s something that cannot be said of their principal rival in the American League Central, the Cleveland Indians. The Indians are expected to start the season with about $116 million in salary commitments, and management has intimated it’s not willing to go much higher.

If the AL Central race comes down to the contenders’ abilities to patch weaknesses mid-course, the advantage all lays with the Twins.