J.T. Realmuto: Down to Three Teams, Odds for Each Contender
It looks like we could finally be nearing the end of the J.T. Realmuto saga with rumors heating up about the Miami Marlins catcher.
Over the past couple of days, several teams have increased their pursuit for J.T. Realmuto. I think the Miami Marlins are finally realizing they can’t go to Spring Training with him on the roster.
The Marlins have been waiting for a king’s ransom for Realmuto, and for good reason. He’s possibly the best catcher in the game right now an is under team control for two more seasons at an affordable price.
As an All-Star last year he hit .277 with 21 home runs and 74 RBI in just 125 games played — and he did that with the struggling Miami Marlins.
He’s also viewed as a great defensive catcher that can handle a pitching staff.
A lot of teams have been connected with Realmuto throughout the postseason, but it seems like we are down to our three finalists in the Dodgers, Padres, and Reds.
MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro also listed the Braves, Astros, and Rays as possible suitors.
But those who have been the most aggressive in talks this week are the first three mentioned, so that’s who we are going to focus on as we give our odds for each team trading for Realmuto.
Los Angeles Dodgers – 5/8
The Los Angeles Dodgers make the most sense to me as they are ready to win now and have a glaring hole at catcher.
After back-to-back World Series runner-ups, the Dodgers have to make some drastic moves to get over the hump.
They just recently signed AJ Pollock to possibly upgrade with the outfield, but other than that they haven’t made any major moves this offseason.
A lot of people thought they were clearing the outfielder for Bryce Harper, but it doesn’t sound like that is going to happen.
Their best shot at making a big move this offseason is trading for J.T. Realmuto.
The Dodgers have the farm system to get this deal done. Alex Verdugo seems expendable at this point and would likely be the centerpiece of any trade for Realmuto.
Miami also wants a major league ready player in the deal. Joc Pederson could make sense there, but then it wouldn’t make sense to give them Pederson and Verdugo.
Dustin May is a pitching prospect who reached Double-A last year who could be of interest to the Marlins.
Whatever the deal may look like, I think this is something the Dodgers need to get done, and I feel they are the most motivated to get it accomplished.
Cincinnati Reds – 9/4
The Cincinnati Reds have made a lot of moves this offseason in effort to be competitive in 2019. But even so, I don’t view them as a serious contender this year, or even the year after.
With that in mind, it doesn’t make a lot of sense to trade for J.T. Realmuto. The only way a deal with the Reds would work is if they were able to extend him during the trade.
Tucker Barnhart is the current catcher for the Reds and is a solid backstop. You have to wonder if the price for Realmuto is worth the upgrade from Barnhart to Realmuto.
The Reds rotation features a lot of young guys and players looking for bounce-back seasons. It would be good to have an experienced catcher behind the mound who is good at calling games, and I think both Barnhart and Realmuto fit that mold.
Obviously, Realmuto gives you a good bit more at the plate.
But in order to acquire Realmuto the Reds would likely have to give up part of their future in Jesse Winker and either Nick Senzel or Jonathan India.
That would be a pretty big price to pay for a team that still isn’t considered a favorite in their own division.
But if the Reds really want Realmuto, they may be able to give the best package.
San Diego Padres – 4/1
The mystery team that seems to be in on everyone this offseason is the San Diego Padres.
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Like the Reds, it only makes sense for the Padres to trade for J.T. Realmuto if they can negotiate an extension as part of the trade.
The Padres know they are not going to be ready in 2019, but are hoping for 2020 and beyond. With only two years of control left, they would have to lock up Realmuto longterm if they trade for him.
They already have a young catcher behind the plate in Austin Hedges who hit 18 home runs in 2017, but was limited to just 91 games in 2018 (but still hit 14 home runs).
Hedges is more known for his defense, but the Padres would probably love to see him improve his career batting average of .210. He’s still under control for four more seasons.
The Marlins have made it clear that any deal with the Padres would need to include Francisco Mejia.
The catcher/outfielder hit .293 in Triple-A last year with 14 home runs before making his major league debut with the Padres where he hit .179 with 3 home runs in 56 at-bats.
The Padres have one of the best farm systems in baseball, so they could certainly give the Marlins an intriguing package if they really want Realmuto.
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But to me, the Padres don’t make a ton of sense for J.T. Realmuto, which is why I gave them the lowest odds.