Milwaukee Brewers: Options for the 2019 pitching rotation
After an unexpected, but strong playoff run in 2018, the Milwaukee Brewers have had an unexpectedly quiet off-season.
The Milwaukee Brewers appear to have a few needs to still fill before Opening Day, especially when it comes to the starting rotation.
There are plenty of names listed on the team’s depth chart, but the actual rotation is difficult to define. Even though the list of names is substantial, many expected the Brewers to add a veteran or two to their rotation.
The Brewers still have to compete in what was the best division in the MLB: the NL Central. By the time the 2018 season was over, the Brewers and Cubs were tied for the top. And, all season long, the Cardinals weren’t far behind.
The Central is expected to be just as tough in 2019, especially with the Cardinals off-season acquisition of Paul Goldschmidt. And, the Reds have been busy adding pieces like Tanner Roark, Sonny Gray, and Yasiel Puig.
Looking at the Brewers starting lineup, the team has the ability to compete with the better teams. Consider the outfield, which is loaded with talent. The Brewers have the reigning NL MVP Christian Yelich, but they’ve also got fan favorites Ryan Braun and Lorenzo Cain.
The infield isn’t too bad, either. There’s Jesus Aguilar at first and the newest acquisition, Yasmani Grandal, at catcher. Orlando Arcia has proven to be a decent shortstop. There are a few weaknesses, specifically at 2nd and 3rd – but the lineup is still one of the better ones in the league.
But, does the pitching rotation have what it takes? That’s the big question.
Consider the pitching rotations of the best teams in the MLB. Many of them have at least one pitcher considered an “ace” of the rotation.
The Astros have Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. The Red Sox have Chris Sale and David Price. And, it’s easy to argue that the Dodgers wouldn’t have made it to the post-season without Clayton Kershaw.
Who’s the ace in the Brewers rotation?
If the answer lies in the ERA, then the 2018 ace was Wade Miley. His 2.57 ERA in 16 starts was a run better than the next best pitcher, Jhoulys Chacin, who had 35 starts and an ERA of 3.50. He was followed closely by Chase Anderson who had an ERA of 3.93 in30 starts.
Chacin and Miley were also the two best starters in the post-season. Chacin finished the post-season with an ERA of 1.46 and Miley had an ERA of 1.23. But, the best ERA belonged to Josh Hader who pitched 10 scoreless innings. Consider that Chacin pitched 12.1 innings and Miley pitched 14.2 innings.
Miley is still a free agent. But, don’t hold your breath that he will rejoin the Brewers.
Hader also had an outstanding regular season with an ERA of 2.43 in 81.1 innings. His WHIP of 0.81 was the best of the entire pitching staff.
If the ace has to be a starting pitcher, then the honor should go to Chacin. But, he is on the wrong side of 30, having turned 31 in January. He’s pitched over 1200 innings in 10 years in the league. While he’s always been under 200 innings, he did pitch 188.1 innings in 2017 and 192.2 in 2018.
If Chacin follows his trends from his days in Colorado, he could be due for an injury that limits him to a handful of starts. As long as everything goes well in Spring Training, it is safe to say that Chacin will be the starting pitcher on Opening Day.
On MLB teams with outstanding rotations, the number two pitcher could also be considered ace material.
Consider the Indians Trevor Bauer or the Rockies German Marquez. On any other team, they would be the aces, but on teams with outstanding rotations, they get the second spot in the rotation.
In Milwaukee, the number two starter is most likely Chase Anderson – but he’s got a few things to prove. In 2018, he pitched 158.1 innings to an ERA of 3.93. In his three seasons with the Brewers he’s average 150.1 innings per season.
While 150 innings isn’t much for a starting pitcher, it could be too much for Anderson who led the league in one of the few stats no pitcher wants: home runs. He also saw a slight drop in velocity from the 2017 season along with a drop in strikeouts per nine. And, his home runs per nine also increased.
Anderson’s decrease in performance in 2018 was enough for Craig Counsell to keep him off of the roster for the playoff games against the Rockies and the Dodgers. He only saw four starts in September, where he pitched 17.2 innings with a BABIP of .306. Counsell chose to skip his start and go with a bullpen day instead. With Counsell’s creative management style, bullpen games could become commonplace in 2019.
He’s clearly got to figure out what’s going on with his drop in production, especially if he expects to have the second spot in the rotation. Remember, he did pitch on Opening Day in 2018.
The Brewers have several things going for them in 2019 and one is the collection of young starting pitchers. But are they ready for MLB work every five days?
This group of young pitchers includes Freddy Peralta, Corbin Burnes, and Brandon Woodruff. And, if Councell chooses to have bullpen days, could Hader start some games in 2019?
Peralta will be all of 22 years old when the season starts. In 2018, he got his call-up when Anderson was put on the DL in May due problems he attributed to food poisoning. Peralta saw starts in June, July, and August. He had a few hiccups along the way, but he was chosen to be on the roster in the playoffs – unlike Anderson.
Peralta may not be lightening fast, but he’s got enough to be in the rotation. According to Fangraphs, his fastball averages 90.8 MPH and the majority of hit pitches end up as fly balls. With the Brewers outfield, this is not a problem. He does need to bring down his walks-per-nine, which is well over four. But, he’s got time. If he can continue to do what he’s done, a middle or bottom of the rotation spot could be his.
Burnes is another interesting young arm. He’s 24 and has only been used out of the pen by Counsell. But, in the minor leagues, he worked as a starter. In 30 innings, he pitched an impressive ERA of 2.61. If Counsell does not want to use him as a traditional starter, he could be a real asset on bullpen games.
Burnes has more speed on his fastball, which averaged 95.3 according to Fangraphs. His walks-per-nine was only 2.61 and his BABIP was an impressive .232.
Then, there’s Woodruff, who has played a few different roles with the team. He got his first callup in 2017 where he had eight starts and pitched 43 innings. Then, in 2018, he only had four starts and was eventually just used out of the pen. His 2018 season included 42.1 innings and he had an ERA that was a run better than his numbers in 2017.
Woodruff is best known outside of Wisconsin for his bat in the post-season. In Game 1 of the NLDS, he teed off on Clayton Kershaw tying the game. Not only did he hit one of the most memorable home runs in the 2018 playoffs that day, he also got the win after facing six batters in the third and fourth innings.
He’s another pitcher who could see time in the rotation, unless Counsell plans to do more bullpen games. Then, he could be an opener, or a middle-inning guy.
The Brewers’ biggest question for the 2019 season could be answered shortly. That question involves whether or not the favorite veteran will be back in top form.
Jimmy Nelson missed the entire 2018 season after taking a tumble while running the bases in September 2017. He tore his labrum and strained his rotator cuff in the fall.
But, after a Tweet from Todd Rosiak, it is clear that Nelson wants to be at the top of the rotation.
Jimmy Nelson said he will be full go heading into spring training, with no restrictions physically. Does he expect to be on the opening day roster? "Absolutely. But not just opening-day roster. One of my goals is to start opening day. I'm not going to beat around the bush."
— Todd Rosiak (@Todd_Rosiak) January 27, 2019
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A fully healed Nelson could be a game changer for the Brewers. Even though he led the NL with losses in 2016, he was good in 2017.
His ERA of 3.49 and WHIP of 1.249 put him just under Chase Anderson and Brent Suter for stats, although Nelson had several more starts than both of them.
Nelson’s return to the rotation could be the reason why the Brewers have not signed any starting pitchers. If he is feeling as good as he says, he could certainly given Chacin some competition for the Opening Day starter role.
According to Nelson, he’s been working out for eight or more hours per day getting ready for the 2019 season. He hasn’t shared any video about his workouts, so we simply have to take his word for it.
Pitchers and catchers report to Brewers Fields of Phoenix on February 13. Their first workout is on Valentine’s Day. And, the first game is on February 23 against the Cubs in Mesa, Arizona.
Next. Possible 2019 MLB Rookie of the Year candidates. dark
Whether he pitches in that first game or not has yet to be determined. It sure would be fun to see him open the season against the Cardinals on March 28 at the friendliest ballpark in the MLB – Miller Park.